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Rob Lee Profile picture
@RALee85
Mar 28 • 4 tweets • 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The Ukrainian Air Force said it shot down 12 of 13 Shahed/ Geran-2 UAVs launched last night and a Granat-4 UAV. They also said Russian Su-35S fighters
dropped two guided bombs, possibly UPAB-1500B.
t.me/milinfolive/98…
t.me/milinfolive/78…
facebook.com/kpszsu/posts/p…
The spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force, Yuriy Ignat, said that Russia is using guided bombs more frequently.
unian.ua/war/kerovani-a…
unian.ua/war/rosiya-vse…
Reportedly, the remains of Russian FAB-500M62 UMPK bombs. 3/
t.me/milinfolive/98…
t.me/milinfolive/97…
t.me/milinfolive/98…
4/
 english.nv.ua/nation/ukraine…

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More from @RALee85

Rob Lee Profile picture
Mar 20
Thread on Bakhmut. Before talking about the tactical situation, it is important to put it in the strategic context. Ukraine conducted successful offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson after heavy Russian military attrition during the Battle of the Donbas left its lines vulnerable.
Russia's successful withdrawal from the right bank of Kherson and mobilization helped stabilize the lines and stopped Ukraine's advance to Kreminna. In order to make further serious gains, Ukraine went on the defense to buy time to form new units/train on NATO equipment.
The battle in Bakhmut began more than 6 months ago, but became a focus over the winter as both sides redeployed forces to Bakhmut from Kherson. Bakhmut thereby acquired a degree of political significance on both sides.
Read 26 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Feb 23
One of the notable changes Russian forces have made has been to provide the best equipment to these assault units, even though they aren't standard equipment. Wagner, VDV and naval infantry units have T-90M and T-80BVM tanks, BMPT, BMP-2M (for VDV), BMP-3, and greater artillery.
Just to emphasize again that Russian offensives depend heavily on these units to lead them and seize Ukrainian positions. If they sustain losses, it will take time to reconstitute them. Other units likely either lack the competency or motivation/cohesion to do so effectively.
What does this mean for the long-term table of organization and equipment for the Russian military? Not sure, but the weakness of Russian motorized rifle formations has made this change a necessity. I would assume VDV and naval infantry units will be even better armed afterwards.
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Feb 21
The Russian MoD Telegram channel said that the LDNR's 1st and 2nd Army Corps are officially part of the Russian Armed Forces since January 1, 2023, and they are denying claims from Russian war correspondents that LDNR officers will be pushed out.
t.me/mod_russia/242…
Sladkov suggested that, although LDNR officers have plenty of combat experience, they will be pushed out because they lack the formal military education or peacetime military experience. He mentions Basurin and says LDNR promotions are based on results. 2/
t.me/Sladkov_plus/7…
Kots says it was inevitable that the system would do this but hoped it would happen after the war. Another Telegram channel says that hundreds of sergeants and praporshchiks who should have been promoted to become officers and are now leading companies. 3/
t.me/sashakots/38558
Read 5 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Feb 19
Although Russia now has a large force, it depends heavily on more elite units to actually assault Ukrainian positions, including VDV, naval infantry, Wagner assault units, etc. which are a smaller share. Once those units take losses, Russia's offensive potential declines.
I won’t post the video, but the Russian soldier in this photo appears to be carrying an AK-74 RMO (Obves), which are usually used by paratroopers, razvedchiki, and spetsnaz. His other gear suggests he’s from an elite unit as well.
t.me/lost_generatio…
The commander of the GRU's 14th Spetsnaz Brigade was killed during the failed assault on Vuhledar as well.
Read 5 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Feb 14
Kyiv could conduct offensives right now, but they would be unlikely to achieve serious successes while sustaining losses. It makes more sense to wait for new equipment, trained units, better ground conditions, etc. for their big push, which will be more likely to achieve success.
Ukraine is clearly holding back reserves for its offensives later this year, which may give the perception that it is losing, but committing those reserves to the front now to defend would make them less effective for future offensives. It is a calculated risk. 2/
It is natural to go on defense after successful offensives. Slow grinding offensives are not in Ukraine's interests, so they need to give themselves the best chance for achieving a deep penetration of Russian lines that can be exploited. That requires greater forces/planning. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Feb 11
A Lost Armour moderator says that the failed assault in Vuhledar (captured on video) was due to Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) launched by Ukrainian 155mm howitzers on a corridor that had been cleared of mines. The vehicles either hit these mines of the TM-62 out of the corridor.
The RSOTM channel also posted photos of scatterable mines that Ukraine has been using, which appear to be RAAM. 2/
t.me/rsotmdivision/…
Other photos show AT2 DM1399 mines. 3/
t.me/rsotmdivision/…
Read 5 tweets

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