cinyc Profile picture
Mar 29 5 tweets 7 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
At the request of @nas9860, @lrishConservNat and others, here's the estimated 2004 #Alaska U.S. Senate result by the 30 current county equivalents (boroughs & census areas). @lisamurkowski won 48-45 after a recount.

Again, this is an ESTIMATE using the traditional method to...
...allocate absentees to precincts. 2004 had a bunch of weird multi-HD early/?/ABS vote types, making this a bit more difficult than usual to decipher.

Here's the chart itself, if that's too small to decipher. Anchorage was more or less average for the state.
ESTIMATED precinct winner map, including the absentee/question/early votes.

This is from the VTD shp, so borders might not be 100% accurate. Prudhoe Bay had an actual voting precinct this cycle!

@alaskanrobby @WillMuldoon @AK_OK @Phrozen_ @leahwrenn @thc1972 @tomhewittnews
@alaskanrobby @WillMuldoon @AK_OK @Phrozen_ @leahwrenn @thc1972 @tomhewittnews As I've said 3 times, this is an ESTIMATE using the traditional method to allocate the early/absentee/question votes to precincts. AK doesn't separately break these out. Thus, we can only guess. The MoEs in smaller census areas are higher. They prob didn't early vote there, but..
...I allocated some votes to them anyway, as the traditional method requires.

ESTIMATE. ESTIMATE. ESTIMATE.

FYI - @JMilesColeman @Thorongil16 @XNeonXO @DrewSav @Shane_maps @orcasaccount @RRHElections - and whomever else has asked for this in the past or wants to see it.

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More from @cinyc9

Mar 27
How long were Dewey's coattails in 1944?

Queens had 4 fairly competitive Congressional races in its 4 1944 CDs. As the precinct winner gif shows, Dewey far outran the congressional candidates in most of Queens (green) - except Far Rockaway and Kew Gardens.
Static maps, for those who prefer - with a bonus map on the bottom right showing the number 1944 voters relative 2020 voters. The green and gold precincts have grown a lot since 1944; purple had fewer voters.
And maps of the 4 individual Queens CDs, showing the names of the candidates and PCT received. These were part of a longer @RRHElections deep dive into 6 competitive Outer Borough CD races in 1944, which you'll find here:

rrhelections.com/index.php/2023…
Read 5 tweets
Mar 26
As requested by @MarionStefan - an estimate of the Dewey 1944 - Trump 2020 NYC swing (on the 1944 precinct map). Purple areas swung from Trump to Dewey (are more Dem today); green areas swung from Dewey to Trump (are more R today).

I spot a few patterns.... Image
The deepest green areas are where Orthodox Jewish voters bloc voted for Trump today and/or where Jewish voters bloc voted FDR in 1944 - plus the 2020 cop & firefighter vote in Southern SI & the (non-Far) Rockaways.

Deepest purples in '44 White areas now Afr Am - like SE Queens.
It's probably not the most informative map - but it's an interesting picture of decades of NY migration and bloc voting.

I'll eventually get around to adding the swing map to the 1944 interactive. ICYMI, that's here:
cinycmaps.com/index.php/stat…
FYI - @JMilesColeman @DrewSav @XNeonXO
Read 4 tweets
Mar 8
Polls on the OK Recreational Marijuana referendum are now closed. Data and shp willing, I'll be livemapping the result here (if the Twitter card isn't greyed out, it's test data until results come in):

cinycmaps.com/index.php/2023…
We have some early results on the map now. No is leading, roughly 60-40. It's all early vote, though.
I just pushed out another update. The map should auto-update every 2 minutes without the need to refresh when I push out an update.

Note that the OKC and Tulsa county absentees aren't shown on the map, since they're both not precinct reported. Yes is barely winning there, ~55-45
Read 6 tweets
Jan 14
AK @GovDunleavy won outright by getting a majority of first preferences. What would have happened had the RCV algorithms been run?

As the gif below shows, @BillWalkerAk would have been eliminated in the penultimate round, and Dunleavy would have beaten @Les_Gara_InAk by about 19
Static precinct winner maps of the hypothetical RCV rounds.

(It's pretty Walker gold outside of Anchorage until the final round - proving once again that land doesn't vote, especially in Alaska. ImageImageImageImage
ICYMI from earlier this week, links to the spreadsheet used to make this map:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

And the Python Script used to generate the RCV csvs that went into converting the CVR to make the csv behind the spreadsheet:
github.com/thecinyc/AK-CVR
Read 4 tweets
Jan 9
Gif of the overall precinct winner map for the various RCV (and non-RCV) rounds of the AK-AL November GE. @MaryPeltola lead wire-to-wire.

1st map is of the results before any second prefs were allocated; 2nd - 2nd prefs allocated; 3rd - WI eliminated; 4th - bye bye Bye.
#AKpol
I've also updated the spreadsheets for the AK-AL race and hypos. This fixes a few minor precinct results errors. They're here:

Actual (Begich eliminated):
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

Palin eliminated hypo:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

Pelotla eliminated hypo:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Read 6 tweets
Jan 6
I've finally preliminarily parsed the AK US House and Senate CVRs. Things add up, but still may be off at the edges.

Unlike in the special, had Palin been eliminated, Begich would have lost 55.4-44.6%. This is slightly worse than Palin's 55-45% actual performance.
Beigich would have won a head-to-head against Palin 60.6-39.4%.
Senate parse is here:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

House parse here:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

5 precincts weren't included in the CVR or final results: Ambler, Kiana, Kobuk, Noorvik and St. George Island.

Is this due to the ballots not arriving to Juneau/Nome on time, @ak_elections?
Read 8 tweets

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