Thread by @davidhelms570

1/ Heavy Precipitation/Snowfall *ALERT*
Wednesday Evening (MAR 29) to Friday Morning (MAR 31)
* Heavy snow likely in Luhansk and Donetsk
* Drone operations will be severely restricted
* Trafficability will be severely restricted
* Rising water will make creeks dangerous to ford

2/ 10 Day Forecast of weather for Bakhmut and Kreminna shows rate of precipitation, snowfall, & snow depth Thursday-Friday. Additional rainfall next WED. Most snow will melt by Saturday. Melting snow will make trafficability extremely difficult & rising creeks impassable.

3/ Comparing major global weather models, but agree on extreme precipitation potential next 72 hours (50-75 mm), but position of maxima varies by about 100 km which is relevant to the line of conflict.

4/ Snowfall (how much snow falls from the sky) amount and location varies by model to model, but all show significant snowfall, 30 to >50 cm, east of line of conflict (LoC) and substantial snowfall, 10-30 cm, west of the LoC.

5/ Snow depth [lower right] (snow remaining on ground) will be much less than snowfall [upper right] with temperatures >= freezing (0C) and ground temperature above 0C. In these conditions, small differences in elevation are important (more snow accumulation = greater elevation)

6/ All weather models melt snow on ground (e.g., snow depth) very quickly, almost all gone by Sunday (APR 2). Snow melt water will cause creeks to rise rapidly making creek crossing impossible or dangerous if attempted with wheeled vehicles. #NAFOWeather /end

.@threadreaderapp unroll

FYI... Ground ground temperature in the east is +4 to +6C (surface to 10 cm)