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David Lee

@DavidLe76335983

Oct 28, 2022

🇺🇸 playbook is really smart
“Weaken a nation and takeover its asset at discount” works for decades
Ukraine crisis was planned to weaken 🇷🇺 and rob it like in the 1990s. If it fails, Europe is doomed and 🇺🇸 can rob European capital, knowhow, talent, asset like 🇷🇺 in 90s

1

Problem is the world already tired of this playbook and only 777 mn International Community stand with 🇺🇸
The rest of the world knows they need a new “community” and started to look for alternatives, e.g. BRICS, SCO, etc. All of them have key members 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 🇮🇳

2

With more countries like 🇸🇦🇳🇬🇦🇷🇹🇷 joining this alternative community, it becomes more military, political and economic viable, or a mini United Nation that is not based on rules set and kept changing by a bully.

3

Read 4 tweets

David Lee

@DavidLe76335983

Aug 19, 2022

Long 🧵 on 🇨🇳
Many experts’ posts on how bad is the 🇨🇳 economy, but the same experts kept telling their followers that 🇨🇳 number are all made up and unreliable 🤔

The key issue in 🇨🇳 this year is potential leadership change. One needs to learn how to read the tea leaves

1

🇨🇳 leadership for next 5 years will be decided in 20th CPC Congress. The top leadership held their meeting in Beidaihe earlier this summer to decide on personnel arrangement to be approved in the CPC Congress. So called experts not knowing this should not even talk about 🇨🇳

2

What was decided in Beidaihe is not known. Premier Li was the first to emerge in Shenzhen, then Xi went to NE 🇨🇳. Real 🇨🇳 observers follow these actions to read the tea leaves. So, what are the significance of these visits?

3

Read 9 tweets

David Lee

@DavidLe76335983

Aug 8, 2022

Long 🧵 on Taiwan
With the completion of Pelosi Asia trip, many different views on its merits and what will come next. My take is 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 each got what it wants. Taiwan is the clear loser.

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🇨🇳 started military exercise the day after Pelosi visit. For the first time, PLA exercise around Taiwan, blockading the island. PLA repeatedly move beyond median line and its navy was within 12 miles of Taiwan, completely ignoring median line or “ territorial” water claim

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The speed and scale of organising such massive exercise shows 🇨🇳 is well prepared for mass mobilisation and is ready to undertake such task at a moment notice. PLA knows full well 🇺🇸 is watching PLA move and is happy to let 🇺🇸 know 🇨🇳 attack plan

3
taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4617283.

Read 15 tweets

David Lee

@DavidLe76335983

Jul 28, 2022

1. Many experts have put out prediction how China would react on Pelosi trip
A. No fly zone
B. Interception of Pelosi flight
C. Actual invasion
While all of these are possible, it is not probable and I have a different view on the potential chain of events
cnn.com/2022/07/27/pol…

2. Global Times, the CCP media outlet has clearly indicated PLA will not sit idly by, so some reactions should be expected. But what will be the reactions by PLA?
globaltimes.cn/page/202207/12…

3. By May, 🇨🇳 still has <$1 tn UST, which will be frozen in the event of armed conflicts with 🇺🇸. Pretty sure 🇨🇳 dump more UST in June/July, but still have >$0.93-0.96 tn given UST market was still running in orderly manner. Will 🇨🇳 be willing to lose 1 tn upfront to start a war?

Read 12 tweets

David Lee

@DavidLe76335983

May 10, 2022

Long thread on China development model evolution

Deng Xiaoping was opened up Chinese economy back in 1978. At that time, the reform focused on attracting overseas investment to set up mfg in China for domestic and export purposes

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washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca…

Overseas Chinese (mainly Hong Kong, Taiwan, SEA) brought skills and capital to China, built factories in the specialised economic zones. What China offered then was “unlimited” supply of cheap labor, but lack infrastructure, regulations, skills or equipment.

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These investment and economic activities helped China to achieve double digit economic growth back then, generating funds for Govt to invest into basic infrastructure such as roads and ports further enhancing China as a low cost supply base for the world

3

Read 19 tweets

David Lee

@DavidLe76335983

Apr 22, 2022

https://twitter.com/davidle76335983/status/1506204296404434947

1/5
Posted this a month ago, so much have evolved
1. Many nations ban export of food
2. Massive inflation on energy and food globally
3. Food & energy crisis already led to riots in some countries
4. Supply chain problems worsened by lockdown in China

https://twitter.com/davidle76335983/status/1506204296404434947

2/5
Financial system
1. 🇷🇺 line up non-USD trade deal with Global South (GS)
2. Ruble for gas, then other commodities for unfriendly nations
3. GS increases non-USD reserve
4. Massive selloff of UST
5. De-dollarization
6. Zoltan Pozsar and Sergey Glazyev on new financial system

3/5
Loss of market control
1. LME problem on Nickel can spread to other metals
2. Divergence of paper and physical price on PM
3. Fed and ECB running out of options, market knows it
4. Ruble did not crash, oil price not coming down, inflation reaching multi decade high

Read 5 tweets

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