Investment, geopolitics, no tolerance for fake news/ propaganda, put down prejudice/research/analyse/think for yourself, RT/Like not endorsement
May 5 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Much talk about #GOLD revaluation recently
Want to do a mental exercise and see how it works
If 🇨🇳 govt declares it will buy unlimited quantity of gold at RMB 1100/g (currently ~550/g), it means 🇨🇳 devalues RMB by 50%. Import for 🇨🇳 becomes expensive but 🇨🇳 export is cheap
1/5
🇨🇳 will flood its export globally killing jobs elsewhere
So other mfg countries will interfere FX to devalue their currencies in order to maintain stability against RMB.
West finds its export collapsing will also devalue their currencies to reach equilibrium with RMB
2/5
Mar 29, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
How to stop drinking milkshake?
Slowly then suddenly
So far this week
Kenya buy 🇸🇦 🇦🇪 oil in Kenyan Shillings
First Yuan LNG deal
🇨🇳 🇧🇷 trade in their currencies
ASEAN discussion on non-USD settlement
🇺🇸 playbook is really smart
“Weaken a nation and takeover its asset at discount” works for decades
Ukraine crisis was planned to weaken 🇷🇺 and rob it like in the 1990s. If it fails, Europe is doomed and 🇺🇸 can rob European capital, knowhow, talent, asset like 🇷🇺 in 90s
1
Problem is the world already tired of this playbook and only 777 mn International Community stand with 🇺🇸
The rest of the world knows they need a new “community” and started to look for alternatives, e.g. BRICS, SCO, etc. All of them have key members 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 🇮🇳
2
Aug 19, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Long 🧵 on 🇨🇳
Many experts’ posts on how bad is the 🇨🇳 economy, but the same experts kept telling their followers that 🇨🇳 number are all made up and unreliable 🤔
The key issue in 🇨🇳 this year is potential leadership change. One needs to learn how to read the tea leaves
1
🇨🇳 leadership for next 5 years will be decided in 20th CPC Congress. The top leadership held their meeting in Beidaihe earlier this summer to decide on personnel arrangement to be approved in the CPC Congress. So called experts not knowing this should not even talk about 🇨🇳
2
Aug 8, 2022 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
Long 🧵 on Taiwan
With the completion of Pelosi Asia trip, many different views on its merits and what will come next. My take is 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 each got what it wants. Taiwan is the clear loser.
1
🇨🇳 started military exercise the day after Pelosi visit. For the first time, PLA exercise around Taiwan, blockading the island. PLA repeatedly move beyond median line and its navy was within 12 miles of Taiwan, completely ignoring median line or “ territorial” water claim
2
Jul 28, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
1. Many experts have put out prediction how China would react on Pelosi trip
A. No fly zone
B. Interception of Pelosi flight
C. Actual invasion
While all of these are possible, it is not probable and I have a different view on the potential chain of events cnn.com/2022/07/27/pol…2. Global Times, the CCP media outlet has clearly indicated PLA will not sit idly by, so some reactions should be expected. But what will be the reactions by PLA? globaltimes.cn/page/202207/12…
May 10, 2022 • 19 tweets • 5 min read
Long thread on China development model evolution
Deng Xiaoping was opened up Chinese economy back in 1978. At that time, the reform focused on attracting overseas investment to set up mfg in China for domestic and export purposes
1 washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca…
Overseas Chinese (mainly Hong Kong, Taiwan, SEA) brought skills and capital to China, built factories in the specialised economic zones. What China offered then was “unlimited” supply of cheap labor, but lack infrastructure, regulations, skills or equipment.
2
Apr 22, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/5 Posted this a month ago, so much have evolved 1. Many nations ban export of food 2. Massive inflation on energy and food globally 3. Food & energy crisis already led to riots in some countries 4. Supply chain problems worsened by lockdown in China
2/5 Financial system 1. 🇷🇺 line up non-USD trade deal with Global South (GS) 2. Ruble for gas, then other commodities for unfriendly nations 3. GS increases non-USD reserve 4. Massive selloff of UST 5. De-dollarization 6. Zoltan Pozsar and Sergey Glazyev on new financial system
