Mark Galeotti Profile picture
Mar 30 6 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Evan Gershkovich's is a shocking example of the way that these days the Kremlin doesn't even feel the need to have the most basic pretext to use hostage-taking as a tool of statecraft. Although… 1/
#EvanGershkovich
…on reflection, it's not so much the act of a state as a bandit gang. I've just submitted to the publishers the manuscript of a book which is, essentially, a history of the world told through the medium of organised crime. A key theme is how efficient bandit gangs can… 2/
…become the bases for states. What's deeply worrying and depressing is how quickly and eagerly Russia which, for all the cheap characterisations as a 'Mafia State' was actually something rather more complex, is being dragged into semi-medievalism by Putin and his thugs 4/
(OK, that last one ought to have been 3/) But medievalism with all the powers and connectivities of the modern state. I have pondered about Russia's 'North Koreanisation' under Putin and while the parallel is in exact and easy to unpick for all kinds of reasons… 4/
It also feels worryingly appropriate. The only silver lining is that I feel many Russians do not see this as the future they want. The more Putinism becomes Juche-with-Russian-characteristics, the wider the gap between Putin and his people… 5/
…but also for now the harder for them to do anything about it. And meanwhile poor Evan is presumably going to sit in prison until a swap with (real) spies can be arranged. 6/end

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More from @MarkGaleotti

Mar 22
Lots of hot takes after Xi's trip to Moscow saying Russia's vassalage now a done deal. As I say in this piece for @spectator, I don't think it's as cut and dried. Yes, China is now more powerful and Putin is looking for support, but... 1/
spectator.co.uk/article/after-…
Russia's growing turn on China as a market does also lead to a degree of mutual dependence. Just as Putin's European 'energy weapon' was overblown, so too it's not quite the case that Beijing now calls the shots absolutely because of this, especially as... 2/
While Putin seems obsessed with his struggle with Ukraine/West to the exclusion of other concerns - this is the defining conflict of his presidency - there is a strong Sinosceptic or even Sinophobic mood in the elite, especially the next political generation... 3/
Read 6 tweets
Mar 16
My third (and last!) @OspreyBooks book of the year, a dig into the 2008 Russo-Georgian War that in some ways contributed to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. How? Read on... 1/
ospreypublishing.com/uk/russias-fiv…
The war saw the first Russian attempt at coordinated modern political/cyber/intel/military ops, not always done so well, but it turned out to be a harbinger of the future, and something Moscow decided had real potential 2/ Image
More to the point, the mediocre performance of Russian forces allowed Defence Minister Serdyukov and CoGS Makarov to impose reforms on a recalcitrant high command, reorienting the military towards smaller-scale intervention missions rather than 'big war', which proved... 3/
Read 7 tweets
Mar 7
It's striking just how quickly Moscow's authority in Central Asia has collapsed. A thread, spinning off the claim by National Anti-Corruption Committee (NAC) Kirill Kabanov chair that "there is no respect for Russia in Central Asia" 1/
mk.ru/politics/2023/…
Kabanov claims that, despite close economic ties and direct aid from Moscow, "the people and elites of these countries do not extend their love to Russia. On the contrary, a common history is being destroyed or rewritten from the positions of colonialism and oppression" 2/
Of course, there is a sinister threat: Kabanov claims that after the visits of US officials, state sponsored "anti-Russian rhetoric has moved to a new level" in the region 3/
Read 11 tweets
Feb 22
Prigozhin’s increasingly vitriolic war of words with the Russian MOD over ammo supplies suggests chickens are coming home to roost after he thought he was able to prosecute multiple vendettas 1/
Shoigu is an extremely deft political operator, and one of his defining characteristics is that you rarely see him working at it. He sets things up behind the scenes and then they seem just to happen. The very antithesis of Prigozhin’s bluster 2/
Is the MOD withholding ammo? Quite possibly, for all their denials, but in the context of growing ammo rationing, this is both unsurprising and justifiable. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Jan 28
#Prigozhin of Wagner (in)fame and Girkin of #Strelkov nom de guerre, are at dagger’s drawn now, a feud beginning to seep into the media. A few observations 1/
Girkin has emerged as an unexpectedly trenchant critic of the conduct of the war (and even an occasional satirist). So long as he was slamming ‘Plywood Marshal’ Shoigu, Gerasimov and ‘Our Unique Strategic Advantage’ Putin, all was fine 2/
spectator.co.uk/article/putins…
He has, after all, a degree of protection because he does channel the views of a substantial fraction of the security apparatus, and the Kremlin appears to accept it’s safer to let him grumble than make him a martyr 3/
buzzsprout.com/1026985/109337…
Read 16 tweets
Jan 12
For a reminder of Putin's amateurish and personalistic approach, assuming that everything can be fixed magically off-stage, see his berating Manturov for not conjuring an aero engine industry out of nowhere. Gerasimov take heed. 1/
bbc.com/news/world-eur…
This is Putin's approach - if things are not instantly fixed, it's not because of intractable structural issues, usually exacerbated by Kremlin incompetence and corruption, it's because someone isn't trying. Do better! 2/
clip.cafe/the-death-of-s…
Surovikin, one of the most able officers they have, not fixing the Russian military's flaws in 3 months (including issues above his pay grade like taming Wagner), not acceptable. 3/
Read 4 tweets

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