Thread by @SethAbramson

MAJOR BREAKING NEWS: Donald Trump Indicted cnn.com/2023/03/30/pol…

(MORE from MSNBC, live on-air): The NEW YORK TIMES has confirmed that the still-sealed indictment (or indictments) include at least one felony.

(MORE) Keep in mind that Alvin Bragg was a *reluctant* prosecutor of Trump—no matter what the Trumpists say now. He previously declined to prosecute Trump for Tax Fraud despite his own prosecutors saying the evidence was sufficient for an indictment. Those prosecutors later quit.

1/ It is amazing to me, and I think to many of us, that this is the first time Donald Trump—a career criminal—has ever been indicted.

2/ Past reports have suggested that one of the charges against Trump is likely to be Falsifying Business Records, which is why it is unfortunate that media has tended to refer to this as a case about hush money. This is a case about white collar crime—and a presidential election.

3/ Never forget—Trump ordered the illicit payoff of his ex-mistress right after the Access Hollywood tape came within a hair of ending his presidential campaign in October 2016. Leading Republicans were jumping ship after Trump admitted on tape to being a serial sexual assailant.

4/ Trump believed—as the second week of October 2016 began—that if one more story about him being a disgusting philanderer and adulterer came out, he would lose sufficient support among evangelicals that he would get blown out by Hillary Clinton. And we must say it: he was right.

5/ So when major media refers to the Manhattan case as a "hush money case," tacit in such a categorization is the further mischaracterization that it is "[just a] hush money case." No—it is high-level white collar crime, a campaign finance crime, *and* a *sort* of election fraud.

6/ While we don’t know if Trump will be charged with Conspiracy—let alone Conspiracy to Commit Election Fraud—we do know he falsified business records (which can be a felony in NY under some circumstances, e.g. if done to hide another crime) and that he did it to win an election.

7/ But I want to go a step further in reply to any who think this is in any way “just” a case about Trump’s personal conduct in sleeping with a porn star—one of “100” mistresses per Steve Bannon—as his wife was at home with a young child: Trump became POTUS because of this crime.

8/ If Trump’s sleazy friend David Pecker, who took an immunity deal, hadn’t paid off Karen McDougal—and if others hadn’t handled dozens other Trump mistresses, per Bannon; and if Trump hadn’t ordered Cohen to pay a big bribe to Daniels to stay quiet—Clinton would’ve been elected.

9/ Trump hid from U.S. voters a fact they had a right to know, and he hid it via criminal activity. But for that criminal activity, the United States would’ve elected its first woman president, and none of the scandals and outrages of the Trump administration would have happened.

10/ But it’s not just that I think that—under Clinton—hundreds of thousands of COVID-19 dead would still be alive, though I do; it’s not just that our politics wouldn’t have been terminally degraded, as they have been, or that January 6 wouldn’t have occurred; no, it’s far worse.

11/ Trump bribed Daniels into shutting up, and committed campaign finance crimes, and falsified business records, and also (likely) engaged in some sort of election-fraud-related conspiracy, so that he could change the face of the Supreme Court of the United States for *decades*.

12/ So I don’t want to hear about this being “just” a hush-money case—even if we refer to it as a hush-money case as a sort of shorthand. This is a case about Trump trying to steal the 2016 election, and the cases in Georgia and DC are about him trying to steal the 2020 election.

13/ I want to add that—as a matter of FACT—Trump is:

(a) a flight risk;
(b) a danger to court personnel in the absence of a gag order;
(c) almost certain to violate his bail conditions;
(d) certain to commit felony Perjury if he testifies; and
(e) like to tamper with witnesses.

14/ The only reason *anyone* can find to minimize the seriousness of what we think the allegations against Trump in NYC are is that this case is *less* serious than possible cases in Georgia/DC—which is true, but also *only* true because those are *unprecedentedly serious cases*.

15/ So this is a very serious case, connected to very serious national events, whose prosecution now creates a national security risk (and a level of societal risk) to the United States and its people, and all of this is before we even know what the exact charges are going to be.

16/ Seven hours ago, The Independent (UK) ran this headline:

17/ And things are not going to get better in this regard. Trump is a malignant narcissistic sociopath with enormous wealth and influence. He has no intention of spending even a second in a jail cell—ever. He will try to burn this country to the ground before he lets that happen.

18/ This is a sober thread, and I’m being sober about this situation, because I (like many) knew Trump would eventually be indicted for something *somewhere*—I first said so last October—but I’m also being sober because this is the beginning, not the end, of a historic chapter.

19/ I know it’s impossible for those of us who understand Trump to be a historic threat to U.S. national security not to celebrate at least a little bit today—but I also think that readers understand that when I say this is just the start of a long process I’m not being dramatic.

20/ As I’ve repeatedly written here, one of the first questions to be asked is when Trump will be arraigned and whether the court will commit to a *normal trial schedule* that brings Trump before a jury before November 2024. Any date after that and this whole process is poisoned.

21/ Why do I say that? Because here is the other reason Clinton lost: fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-c…

22/ Americans have a right to know if they’re voting for a convicted criminal who faces the possibility of jail or prison time—and that applies not just to the Manhattan case but any cases arising from Georgia or Washington, D.C. These cases *must* be handled in a timely fashion.

23/ I’m putting aside for now how Trump will try to use any pending cases for political gain; he’ll do what he’s going to do.

What I’m saying is that the fake, entirely made-up protections our system has created for political candidates *quintuple* if someone is president-elect.

24/ If Trump is allowed to delay any of his cases until after the November 2024 election and somehow wins that election, I believe any and all such cases will *effectively* become a nullity. That’s why justice must be issued not just fairly but (to a normal degree) expeditiously.

25/ Here’s what you’ll never hear from this former public defender: I’ll never demand that Trump get less due process than anyone else.

But I’ll *always* demand—in clear, unwavering terms—that he get no *more* due process than anyone else.

That is my commitment to readers here.

(PS) As all this unfolds, try to ignore distractions (it’ll be hard). Bragg, a reluctant Trump prosecutor, didn’t vote to indict Trump; average Americans—working as grand jurors—did.

And George Soros, Biden, Communism, Marxism—et al—has nothing to do with Trump being a criminal.

(PS2) I want to sound a note of worry on one item: the incomprehensible use of the phrase “election interference” to describe investigations that have been ongoing for years. Given that most expect Trump will seek—again—illegal foreign election interference to aid his campaign...

(PS3) ...I *do* worry that McCarthy and Stefanik and Trump and everyone who receives the Mar-a-Lago talking points misusing the phrase “election interference” is an attempt to desensitize us to it and pre-excuse Trump engaging in the actual act itself. That, I admit, unnerves me.