Thread by @NormEisen

At last! "No one is above the law" has finally been vindicated & historically so

Now that we know Trump is facing charges from Alvin Bragg, what to make of them? They are strong!

A thread👇justsecurity.org/85581/the-manh…

We don’t yet have the actual indictment

But, looking at the applicable law & the evidence, I expect the DA charged Trump w violating New York’s law against maintaining false books & records—as I have been predicting for almost two years 👇
brookings.edu/research/new-y…

2/x

That charge's basis is Trump concealing hush money payments to Stormy Daniels

Michael Cohen pled guilty to them as federal camp. fin. violations, but they also violate NY’s false books & records statutes (including NY Penal Code § 175.10)
justsecurity.org/83161/tipping-…

3/x

As we detailed in our just published @just_security chronology breaking down the possible crimes, Trump & his allies pretended that these payments were legitimate legal fees for Cohen’s services—& they were no such thing

But it doesn’t stop there justsecurity.org/85761/detailed…

4/x

These payments were clearly made to advance Trump's campaign

He was already on thin ice because of the Access Hollywood tape & another sex scandal could have changed the outcome

5/x
justsecurity.org/85581/the-manh…

By the way, Trump similarly "double booked" when exaggerating property values for bank loans & insurance purposes, then discounted them steeply

Both implicate the same criminal books & records law & also the statutes on tax & insurance fraud & enterprise corruption etc.

6/x

Contrary to the naysayers, prosecution of falsifying business records in the 1st degree is commonplace & has been used by NY DA’s offices to hold to account a breadth of criminal behavior

We analyzed the precedents for @just_security
justsecurity.org/85605/survey-o…

7/x

Here’s a cheatsheet of the potential crimes that we unpack in our @BrookingsGov report

8/x

We learned more about why all of this is so devastating when the NYAG filed her civil suit

As I explained for @just_security, the AG’s complaint detailed the overwhelming evidence of the alleged frauds in the Trump Org’s financial statements

justsecurity.org/83161/tipping-…

9/x

Here’s the NYAG’s inventory of misconduct—it’s staggering

10/x

That’s why we determined that Trump & his children “face a very real risk of indictment, criminal conviction, & imprisonment.”

justsecurity.org/83161/tipping-…

11/x

But even with the seemingly powerful evidence of wrongdoing, Manhattan DA Bragg will face a series of hurdles in charging & convicting Trump

They can be overcome & here’s how

justsecurity.org/85029/trumps-h…

12/x

For example, Bragg’s case will likely rely heavily on the testimony of Cohen—who some severely criticize as a witness

But as we wrote in our @just_security explainer, Cohen accepting responsibility for his role will go a long way with a jury justsecurity.org/85029/trumps-h…

13/x

All in all, I think it’s possible to overcome these & other challenges—making this the most serious legal threat Trump has ever faced

justsecurity.org/85581/the-manh…

14/x

All of this analysis is why I've been very consistent saying an indictment was coming & soon

More to come as we continue to learn about new developments

https://twitter.com/NormEisen/status/1640504544051306498?s=20

15/x