emmpeethree Profile picture
Mar 31 4 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
DJ - Shaken, not stirred—4Q22 review
-pullback a buying opportunity 1/x 🧵
Top picks:
$SU integrated
$TOU large cap gas
$ERF mid cap oil
$AAV mid cap gas
$SDE wet gas
$FRU royalty

$ARX.TO $CNQ $CVE $CPG $PEY.TO $PNE $TPZ $TVE $VET.TO $WCP $ATH $CR $HWX $NVA $IMO $MEG
#OOTT #COM
2/x
1. Cash flow continues to moderate but still provides robust returns
2. Staying on budget in 2023
3. Unbridled growth no more
4. Balance sheets are no longer a major issue for most companies
5. Is returning 100% of FCF the right number, or is it overkill?
3/x
6. Base dividends have mostly reached a ceiling
7. The lion’s share of discretionary FCF will continue being deployed through share buybacks
8. Recycle ratios remain healthy on the back of strong commodity prices amid rising FD&A costs
4/x

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with emmpeethree

emmpeethree Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @emmpeethree1

Apr 1
DJ - Shaken, not stirred - 4Q22 review, and 2023/2024 estimates

Charts/tables edition 1/10 🧵

First up: 4Q22 Quarterly CFPS comparison

$CNQ $CVE $IMO $SU $CPG $ERF $HWX $TVE $WCP $FRU $ATH $MEG $ARX $TOU $PEY $PNE $VET $TPZ $AAV $CR
#COM #OOTT Image
2/x
2023-2024 capex
$CNQ $CVE $IMO $SU $CPG $ERF $HWX $TVE $WCP $FRU $ATH $MEG $ARX $TOU $PEY $PNE $VET $TPZ $AAV $CR Image
3/x
EV/DACF (2024E) vs FCF yield (2024E) at strip prices (March 17)

$CNQ $CVE $IMO $SU $CPG $ERF $HWX $TVE $WCP $FRU $ATH $MEG $ARX $TOU $PEY $PNE $VET $TPZ $AAV $CR Image
Read 10 tweets
Mar 31
NBF - Revisiting Liquids (Wet gas) Peers
-revisit the relative bias across our liquids peers:
$KEC, $KEL, $NVA, $PIPE, $POU (~250 mboe/
w/ $9-10b market cap
-recent management updates
~75% of CF in group from liquids (9% CFPS per $5 WTIΔ, 4% per $0.25 HH Δ)
1/x 🧵
#OOTT #COM
-Gas Resource Peer Comparables (Strip Pricing)
-2023e CFPS Sensitivities to +US$5/bbl WTI
-2023e WTI Breakeven Pricing (Strip Pricing) Including Hedging
-2024e/2023e Multiple Compression (Strip Pricing)
2/x
$KEL (OP & $7.50 TP)
$NVA (SP & $16 TP)
$KEC (OP & $25 TP)
$POU (OP & $37.50 TP)
3/x
Read 5 tweets
Mar 30
TD - Exploring Full-cycle Costs & Margins of Canadian E&Ps
-Which Companies Have the Lowest Full-cycle Costs?
gas $PEY.TO $AAV, oil $CPG $WCP
-Highest margins?
$PEY (cash cost), $SDE (F&D cost & tax pools), & $CPG (realized price & tax pools) then $ARX.TO
1/x 🧵
#COM #OOTT
2/x
2023E Full-cycle Cost – PDP F&D + Cash Expenses (ex. Hedging) at Strip

and

Full-cycle Cash Costs Relative to Commodity Mix
3/x
Full-cycle Cash Flow Margins (at Strip)

and

Full-cycle Cash Flow Margin Relative to Production Mix (at Strip)
Read 4 tweets
Mar 27
NBF - 2022's top Canadian wells by cumulative BOE and top AVG BOE/d production for Bakken, Cardium, Charlie Lake, Clearwater, Duvernay, Mississippian, Montney and Viking plays 🧵

$CPG still dominates the Bakken north of the 49th

#COM #OOTT Image
Cardium

Led by $PEY.TO, Orlen, $CNQ, $SDE, $CVE, $WCP

Amazing diversity between gassy and liquidy! Image
Charlie Lake

$TOU $TVE $CNQ $WCP $KEL

quite the range from gassy to liquidy again! Image
Read 8 tweets
Jan 18
NBF - Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels - 13th Annual Energy Conference: Continuing Momentum

Summaries on: $AAV $BIR $CPG $HWX $KEC $PSK $SGY $TVE.TO $TPZ $VET.TO $WCP

Key themes:
-Inflation, Efficiencies and Inventory
1/14🧵
#COM #OOTT
Key Themes (cont.)
-Complementing Inventory; Organically and M&A
-Emphasis for Return of Capital Remains
-Differentiation and Multiple Expansion?
2/x
Advantage Energy $AAV ; Outperform & $15.00/sh
3/x
Read 14 tweets
Jan 15
Peyto Exploration's next monthly dividend will be 11c and $1.32/year or a 9.8% yield. I've seen comparisons to $GXE.TO & $CJ.TO div, concerns on sustainability and concerns due to recent AECO/HH price drop. This report from TD shows it is sustainable.
1/x
#COM #OOTT $PEY $PEY.TO
Netbacks and production rowing y/y
2/x
-Currently trading @~2/3 of NAV
-EV/DACF trading near eight year low
-2P Reserve Life Index (RLI) of 23.5 years based on 105k boe/d, 2022 exit production (before addition of two acquisitions made in 2022)
3/x
Read 15 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(