DJ - Shaken, not stirred—4Q22 review
-pullback a buying opportunity 1/x 🧵
Top picks:
$SU integrated
$TOU large cap gas
$ERF mid cap oil
$AAV mid cap gas
$SDE wet gas
$FRU royalty
2/x 1. Cash flow continues to moderate but still provides robust returns 2. Staying on budget in 2023 3. Unbridled growth no more 4. Balance sheets are no longer a major issue for most companies 5. Is returning 100% of FCF the right number, or is it overkill?
3/x 6. Base dividends have mostly reached a ceiling 7. The lion’s share of discretionary FCF will continue being deployed through share buybacks 8. Recycle ratios remain healthy on the back of strong commodity prices amid rising FD&A costs
4/x
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NBF - 2022's top Canadian wells by cumulative BOE and top AVG BOE/d production for Bakken, Cardium, Charlie Lake, Clearwater, Duvernay, Mississippian, Montney and Viking plays 🧵
Peyto Exploration's next monthly dividend will be 11c and $1.32/year or a 9.8% yield. I've seen comparisons to $GXE.TO & $CJ.TO div, concerns on sustainability and concerns due to recent AECO/HH price drop. This report from TD shows it is sustainable. 1/x #COM#OOTT $PEY $PEY.TO
-Currently trading @~2/3 of NAV
-EV/DACF trading near eight year low
-2P Reserve Life Index (RLI) of 23.5 years based on 105k boe/d, 2022 exit production (before addition of two acquisitions made in 2022) 3/x