Thread by @JohnEDeaton1

Imagined #XRP outcomes:

Best outcome: outright win for @Ripple w/the Judge smacking the SEC for gross overreach and behavior in the case (Judge Netburn has commented SEC lawyers are hypocrites, lack faithful allegiance to the law, and only care about winning the next argument);

https://twitter.com/scottmelker/status/1641066621383974915

2nd best: Judge rules Ripple offered #XRP as an investment contract aka security early in the #XRP ecosystem on a few specific instances (ie the brochure sent to 100 potential investors in 2014) but #XRP itself is not a security and ongoing and secondary sales are not securities;

3rd best: Judge denies both the SEC and Ripple’s motion for summary judgment and states that a jury must decide disputed facts and we have the status quo for another year - BUT the judge makes clear #XRP is simply software code and that secondary sales are not securities;

4th best outcome: Judge grants the SEC summary judgment 🆚 Ripple for both past and present sales of #XRP as an investment contract but the judge makes clear her ruling has nothing to do with secondary sales of #XRP. Ripple appeals the case and we have the status quo for years;

Worst case:
the judge grants summary judgment in favor of the SEC like the judge did in @LBRYcom but also makes no comment regarding the token itself or secondary sales. I would then attempt to do what I did in LBRY at a hearing on damages regarding secondary sales.

I’ve already went on record to say a few things:

1) Judge Torres will deny the SEC’s motion for summary judgment against @bgarlinghouse and @chrislarsensf. The most the SEC can hope for is for the Judge to say it’s up to a jury to decide whether the two executives were reckless.

Its more likely the Judge grants judgment in favor of the two executives b/c no reasonable jury could find them reckless (@USGAO calls #XRP virtual currency in 2014; FinCEN - same in 2015; FSOC - same in 2019; @MoneyGram; SEC staff could own #XRP until 2019, Hinman’s speech etc).

I believe Judge Torres will comment regarding secondary sales and regarding the token itself. #XRPHolders’ Amicus Brief and 3500 affidavits are a big deal. @Spend_The_Bits, @TapJets, and all the other amicus briefs are a big deal. The Judge knows the public interest at stake.

If you could only pick one side to get an outright victory (nothing in the middle) you must favor Ripple. The SEC’s theory in the case is just too overbroad and outstretched for an outright victory. The issue is just how deep does Judge Torres go in to find specific offers/sales?