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Apr 1, 2023 20 tweets 4 min read Read on X
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1/ It is my belief that NATO and the US have not fully committed to stop russia in Ukraine. However, there are areas within our own military that require attention. As discussed in Part I, I will reference an article by Glen Grant to discuss these issues Image
2/ Glen suggests that a priority policy should be implemented to replace all military personnel who are not performing frontline tasks with civilians who have comparable or better related skills. Additionally, the use of TrO volunteers should be considered.
3/ In some cases, commanders have been selected through nepotism or connections rather than their performance and results. This is a concerning issue that needs to be addressed immediately to ensure that the most qualified individuals are appointed to leadership positions.
4/ It is imperative to establish a policy that streamlines the identification process of potential commanders for promotion and simultaneously identifies those who are unsuitable for command.
5/ A fundamental area that requires urgent action is collective training. It is crucial for units to receive collective training to improve their skills and ensure that they can work effectively as a team.
6/ In larger NATO countries, collective training is regularly conducted at battalion and brigade levels and even at the division level during major exercises. Lessons learned from the front line should be passed on to every soldier and instructor to improve their training.
7/ Staff appointments such as Chief J7 (Training) should not make command decisions about training requirements. Commanders should only be appointed to command operations or to command the creation and training of units for operations.
8/ The lack of standardization across the Ukrainian army is a significant problem that hinders successful operations. The mix of the Soviet system, NATO standards, and improvisation has led to chaos. It is essential to establish a unified system.
9/ The reliance on Ukroboronprom to produce defence weapons has resulted in a monopolistic system that is not perfectly suitable for war. It has proven to be slow in delivering the necessary weapons and equipment.
10/ The military medical system has major weaknesses. Uncoordinated training for soldiers in battlefield medicine, and poor policies at the national level for supporting and funding the seriously injured or those needing basic medical drugs.
11/ It is crucial to have an officer in each unit who is not in the battle space and can assist with necessary documentation for families when a partner dies or is critically injured.
12/ In order to ensure a streamlined logistics process, each area must have a dedicated logistics hub, that ensures that no brigade has to reach back more than one hour's drive to obtain what they require.
13/ In instances where extreme distances are involved, the logistics "socket" should be extended to bring the required supplies closer to the unit. The logistics power socket should encompass the essential elements of combat supply
14/ including medical supply and evacuation, unit combat supplies such as food, fuel, ammunition, batteries, vehicle spares, and drones, personal equipment of all types through digital registration
15/ reach-back ability for technical equipment for replacement and repair such as phones, computers, and radios, and forward maintenance of all soft-skin and armored vehicles up to engine and barrel changes, and minor body repair,
16/ In addition to the insightful observations made by Glen Grant, I would like to contribute my own observations regarding the current state of Ukraine's military organization. It is important to note that Ukraine's highest organizational unit is the brigade,
17/ as it does not have standing armies or divisions. However, there exist de facto "territorial" organizational units that coordinate the actions of multiple brigades. While these units may function like divisions in some ways, they lack a proper division structure
18/ and their assigned officers are typically temporary. In comparison, division or an army has a clearly defined structure that operates as a single mechanism with clearly defined duties and responsibilities.
19/ In my forthcoming conclusion thread, I intend to provide a summary of the pressing concerns that require attention. In my view, merely seeking assistance from our allies is insufficient; it is imperative that we undertake internal changes to preserve the lives of our soldiers
Full version of the article by Glen Grant that I am referring to can be located here: maidan.org.ua/en/2023/02/gle…

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More from @Tatarigami_UA

Mar 30
One of the biggest problems of this war is that Ukraine and the West haven’t clearly defined what "winning" looks like. This has allowed the Russians to present the "Istanbul Agreements" as the only viable negotiation framework, due to the absence of a well-defined alternative.
2/ The "Victory Plan" presented by Zelensky is not a true negotiation framework, and it didn’t resonate with the previous administration, let alone the current White House administration. Of course, there are alternative options, such as Russia retreating to 1991 borders
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Mar 25
Almost every day, we hear about strikes against targets inside Russia, but we rarely get the full picture of their actual impact on the war. Radio Liberty and Frontelligence Insight have joined efforts to analyze hundreds of data points to answer this question.

🧵Thread Image
2/ Our research covered the period from September 2024 to February 2025, divided into two sections: strikes on military targets, infrastructure, and on the energy sector. We found that strikes on Russia’s energy sector caused at least $658 million in damage over ~6 months
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Mar 21
Kursk Offensive: A Preliminary Assessment by Frontelligence Insight.
A condensed version of report for X. 🧵Thread:

1/ With Ukrainian forces withdrawing from Sudzha, the operation is clearly approaching its conclusion though it is not yet entirely over.Image
2/ To assess the operation, not in isolation, but within the broader context of the war, we broke down the Kursk operation into 3 key questions: whether its geopolitical objectives were met, whether the attrition rate was favorable, and whether it achieved battlefield success
3/ To determine equipment attrition, we analyzed data from OSINT analyst @naalsio26, who tracks losses across multiple frontlines. Our graphs show losses from August to March but are not exhaustive, as they exclude some retreat-related losses. The cut-off date was March 10. Image
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Mar 5
Frontelligence Insight Special Report: AWOL Trends and Casualty Ratios in Russia and Ukraine

In assessing overall manpower casualty ratios, we analyzed Russian AWOL figures alongside Ukrainian estimates, factoring in KIA, MIA, and recruitment rates to assess the war’s prospectsImage
2/ Thanks to @InformNapalm, a Ukrainian OSINT community, we analyzed a screenshot of a Russian presentation slide detailing desertion numbers. The percentage and corresponding figures allowed us to calculate the total number of AWOL cases across all Russian military districts. Image
3/ As shown in the translated graph, the Southern MD has the highest number of desertion cases. This is unsurprising, as it includes the former 1st and 2nd Army Corps (now the 51st and 3rd CAAs), which are largely composed of forcibly mobilized residents from occupied territories Image
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Feb 4
One of the most critical yet unresolved questions of this war is the true impact of drone attacks inside Russia. Our team has been working with media organizations and volunteers to tackle this. But finding the answer isn’t easy, and we need your support. Here’s how you can help: Image
2/ The simplest and most effective way to support our investigation is through donations. This helps cover essential expenses like satellite imagery, expert analysis, and time. You can donate via BuyMeaCoffee:

buymeacoffee.com/frontelligence
3/ We’re also looking for volunteers to assess the damage, particularly those with expertise in damage surveys, industrial building damage assessments, and the oil and gas industry: especially in evaluating potential refinery damage. Feel free to contact us at
frontel@proton.me
Read 4 tweets
Feb 4
As we move into the second month of the year, Frontelligence Insight has prepared an early assessment report covering recent developments on the frontlines and within both Ukrainian and Russian military forces. Below are some key highlights from the report.
1/ 🧵Thread: Image
2/ The frontline dynamics for Ukraine remain challenging, with setbacks in Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Kupyansk, and Toretsk. While leadership is working to address organizational and recruitment issues, it will take time for these changes to be implemented and impact the battlefield.
3/ Russian forces are facing high losses, with tens of thousands of AWOL cases and a significant depletion of armored vehicles, which are being replaced by civilian transport. Nevertheless, they continue advancing in areas where Ukrainian defenses are stretched with few people
Read 18 tweets

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