1/ It is my belief that NATO and the US have not fully committed to stop russia in Ukraine. However, there are areas within our own military that require attention. As discussed in Part I, I will reference an article by Glen Grant to discuss these issues
2/ Glen suggests that a priority policy should be implemented to replace all military personnel who are not performing frontline tasks with civilians who have comparable or better related skills. Additionally, the use of TrO volunteers should be considered.
3/ In some cases, commanders have been selected through nepotism or connections rather than their performance and results. This is a concerning issue that needs to be addressed immediately to ensure that the most qualified individuals are appointed to leadership positions.
4/ It is imperative to establish a policy that streamlines the identification process of potential commanders for promotion and simultaneously identifies those who are unsuitable for command.
5/ A fundamental area that requires urgent action is collective training. It is crucial for units to receive collective training to improve their skills and ensure that they can work effectively as a team.
6/ In larger NATO countries, collective training is regularly conducted at battalion and brigade levels and even at the division level during major exercises. Lessons learned from the front line should be passed on to every soldier and instructor to improve their training.
7/ Staff appointments such as Chief J7 (Training) should not make command decisions about training requirements. Commanders should only be appointed to command operations or to command the creation and training of units for operations.
8/ The lack of standardization across the Ukrainian army is a significant problem that hinders successful operations. The mix of the Soviet system, NATO standards, and improvisation has led to chaos. It is essential to establish a unified system.
9/ The reliance on Ukroboronprom to produce defence weapons has resulted in a monopolistic system that is not perfectly suitable for war. It has proven to be slow in delivering the necessary weapons and equipment.
10/ The military medical system has major weaknesses. Uncoordinated training for soldiers in battlefield medicine, and poor policies at the national level for supporting and funding the seriously injured or those needing basic medical drugs.
11/ It is crucial to have an officer in each unit who is not in the battle space and can assist with necessary documentation for families when a partner dies or is critically injured.
12/ In order to ensure a streamlined logistics process, each area must have a dedicated logistics hub, that ensures that no brigade has to reach back more than one hour's drive to obtain what they require.
13/ In instances where extreme distances are involved, the logistics "socket" should be extended to bring the required supplies closer to the unit. The logistics power socket should encompass the essential elements of combat supply
14/ including medical supply and evacuation, unit combat supplies such as food, fuel, ammunition, batteries, vehicle spares, and drones, personal equipment of all types through digital registration
15/ reach-back ability for technical equipment for replacement and repair such as phones, computers, and radios, and forward maintenance of all soft-skin and armored vehicles up to engine and barrel changes, and minor body repair,
16/ In addition to the insightful observations made by Glen Grant, I would like to contribute my own observations regarding the current state of Ukraine's military organization. It is important to note that Ukraine's highest organizational unit is the brigade,
17/ as it does not have standing armies or divisions. However, there exist de facto "territorial" organizational units that coordinate the actions of multiple brigades. While these units may function like divisions in some ways, they lack a proper division structure
18/ and their assigned officers are typically temporary. In comparison, division or an army has a clearly defined structure that operates as a single mechanism with clearly defined duties and responsibilities.
19/ In my forthcoming conclusion thread, I intend to provide a summary of the pressing concerns that require attention. In my view, merely seeking assistance from our allies is insufficient; it is imperative that we undertake internal changes to preserve the lives of our soldiers
The latest satellite images show 3 major developments: a large Russian troop buildup in Bryansk Oblast, damage from recent drone strikes in Kyiv, and unusual military activities at Taiwan’s Wangan Airport.
All three have one thing in common - they were generated by AI. 🧵Thread:
2/ While those who regularly work with satellite imagery or OSINT can quickly tell that something is "off," the quality of AI-generated satellite images is improving fast. As the number of convincing fakes grows, I've put together a few recommendations to help avoid being misled
3/ In the case of the "Kyiv attack," it took just a single prompt on a free platform to generate the image. While it appears convincing at first glance, a closer look reveals clear geometric irregularities - distorted car shapes, and irregular windows and balconies on buildings
A drone attack is ongoing against Russian airbases with strategic bombers. While the full damage is still unclear, several videos show multiple bombers have been badly hit. Satellite images from yesterday confirm that Belaya hosts various Tu-95 models, Tu-22M3s, and Tu-160s
Satellite imagery of Olenya Airbase from May 26 at 09:50 UTC, shared by @avivector , shows the presence of 11 Tu-95MS (Bear-H), 5 An-12 (Cub), and 40 Tu-22M3 (Backfire-C) aircraft.
Another suspected target is Belaya Airbase. Satellite images from May 31, analysed by @avivector , show the presence of 7 Tu-160 (Blackjack), 6 Tu-95MS (Bear-H), 2 Il-78M (Midas), 6 An-26, 2 An-12, 39 Tu-22M3, and 30 MiG-31 aircraft.
Over the past few months, Russians have focused on disrupting Ukrainian logistics, using a mix of drones, including fiber-optic. Once EW is neutralized or forced to withdraw by fiber-optic drones, it clears the way for drones like the Molniya, which can fly over 20 km. Thread:
2/ Cutting off supply lines has made vehicle transport nearly impossible. In some cases, individual soldiers must walk more than 10 km at night to deliver basic supplies: an unsustainable way for supporting any sizable unit, or even rotating troops.
3/ Despite growing logistical problems, Ukrainian command has made bad choices to launch Russian-modelled assaults. The attempt to capture positions while already struggling to hold current ones, with fewer troops and less equipment, lead to predictably poor outcome
Through the Optics of War: An analysis of leaked confidential data from Russia’s military-industrial complex by Frontelligence Insight — from thermal scopes and laser anti-UAV programs to Chinese import schemes and production bottlenecks in the optoelectronic sector. 🧵Thread:
2/ Rostec is a state-owned conglomerate that includes much of Russia’s military-industrial complex. One of its key holdings, Shvabe, specializes in optical-electronic technologies for military and dual-use applications. The original files were obtained by the @256CyberAssault
3/ In February 2024, Polyus Scientific Research Institute, part of Shvabe Holding, was tasked with advancing laser technologies to counter UAVs. This includes developing materials like active elements under a program focused on high-power lasers, running through 2033.
How bad is Russia’s war chest? Has the country entered stagflation? Why does it fear falling oil prices, but not a crash? And how is the tariff war hurting Russia?
These questions — and more — are explored in a special interview with Russian economist Vladimir Milov.
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2/ Tariff wars:
China’s economic slowdown has closed its market to many Russian products, hitting major industries hard. The China-focused Russian coal industry is struggling, and Russian non-energy and non-commodity exports are down by about a quarter compared to pre-2022 levels
3/ Tariff war will obviously exacerbate the Chinese slowdown. The slower Chinese growth, the less market for Russian goods. Share of China in the total Russian exports is as high as a third now - we're heavily dependent on this market and its well-being.
1/ The exhaustion of Russia’s vehicle fleet is becoming increasingly evident. The reduced use of armored vehicles and the growing reliance on civilian: including motorcycles, golf carts, and vans, continues to signal a degradation in Russian maneuvering capabilities.
2/ During the winter, outside of Kursk, Russia achieved mostly tactical gains, notably in Kharkiv Oblast, the Chasiv Yar area and Kurakhove–Velyka Novosilka axis. While these advances have been troubling for Ukraine, Russia has so far failed to capitalize on them strategically.
3/ Despite slow progress, Russia still retains the resources and capability to conduct active offensive operations through the summer and fall of 2025. However, as I noted in my analysis last year, the diminishing returns will determine whether Russia will continue this war