Patricia Marins Profile picture
Apr 1, 2023 8 tweets 4 min read Read on X
🧵1/7
How Putin's premature ambitions just Sabotaged the RU Defense Modernization program:

Russian armed forces were in mid of a modernization program when Putin decided to invade Ukraine.
The problem was that Ukraine also had a modernization program runing fast since 2014.
2/7
The Program was focused on smaller and modern ground force, reducing the active tanks from 23.000 to less than 5.000;
The IFVs from 23.000 to 12.000 and the Airborne from 1500 to 1300 vehicles.
In 2020, RU had modernized les than 1/3 of its smaller forces. In 2022 maybe +15%
3/7

The investment in Navy, specially about New projects and restructuring were enough to keep the forces growing and more modern, in contrast with the land forces.
The shipyard capacity also grew considerably to attend this program.
I'd like to invite @CovertShores to comment.
4/7
The air force was another successful program with more than 70% of modernization lvl, retiring the Su24 and 2/3 of Mig29 fleet.
The attack Rotatory units were also reduced to near 400.
It was the concept of a superpower army: small and modern army, specially on ground forces.
5/7
The MLRS modernization didn't reach the expectations.
The Tornado program just advanced on BM21 with a good upgrade rate to Tornado G, and built two long range missiles, to be used by Smerch launchers.
The production of Iskander misiles and it's brigades were also increased
6/7
The artilleries were the most critical russian equipment: Obsoletes and with a low range. From more than 6.000, the new inventory in 2020 had only 2000 in service.
Rocket launchers were reduced from 4.000 to less than 1.000. Nobody know how many were modernized until 2020
7/7
Opinion:
RU had probably the most important modernization program from its history and a war destroyed it
If less than 1/3 of the land forces were modernized, what's the sense of an invasion?
A wrong decision can destroy years of work.
Now they run to repair old units.
These numbers X loses, put the RU army at a fragile position regarding the land forces. Still able to fight, but I have a feeling about some panic there, specially because RU don't know how the new UKR weapon packet will behave on battlefield and their equipment repair rate.

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More from @pati_marins64

Dec 7, 2025
The era of monsters like AUKUS is over.

When the AUKUS program – which I will discuss in the coming days – was designed, it was already obsolete. Its most likely future is cancellation as many US programs during the last years.

Just as drones in Ukraine dominated the battlefield in Ukraine, and proved that anything big and slow becomes vulnerable and almost useless, the same fate now reaches submarines.

Hundreds of underwater drones will hunt submarines for hours or days until they find them, and China leads these breakthrough technologies.

Two stand out:

- Magnetic Wake Detection: developed by Northwestern Polytechnical University (NPU), it tracks magnetic disturbances left by moving submarines, even stealth Seawolf-class ones. Chinese UUVs already integrate this with existing MAD systems, mapping persistent wakes in real time. In 2025 tests, it merged with acoustic networks and AI to form a vast detection grid.

- CPT Atomic Magnetometer (quantum sensor): the most promising, it eliminates low-latitude blind spots with extreme precision. Initially tested on tethered aerial drones, it is now being adapted for submerged UUVs using rubidium for omnidirectional anomaly detection. CASC researchers are miniaturising and mass-producing it; in simulations, AI-equipped UUVs distinguished real targets from false positives (e.g. whales) with 95% accuracy.

None of this is theoretical – it is already part of China’s Underwater Great Wall, a mobile sensor network fusing magnetic, passive sonar and AI data.

This is exactly why Japan’s new submarine - using lithium batteries- program draws so much attention: excellent cost, real innovation, and units entering service before 2032 will also be modern long-range (1,000-3,000km) missile platforms even for hypersonic missiles.

They are cheap enough that the AUKUS budget could hypothetically buy hundreds of them.

The future lies in smaller, cheaper, more numerous units – never the opposite. Modern warfare is entering the age of decentralisation, and programs like AUKUS are its exact antithesis.
So someone comes along and says: “The era of submarines is over because drones will now hunt them down?”

No. Just as the era of armored vehicles didn’t end. But you’re no longer going to sink hundreds of billions into a submarine program or pay billions for a single boat, because every day the odds of losing it being lost in combat grow higher.

The logic of warfare hasn’t changed: it has to be cheap, mass-produced, easily replaceable, and simple to maintain. Today’s nuclear submarines are none of those things. This is why the Japanese show a new horizon.
China’s new technologies are a trend that will soon spread. They pose a serious threat to submarines and will quickly enter the arsenals of many nations.

1. The future belongs to hybrid designs with micro-reactors charging batteries – cheap, modular, extremely quiet, and far easier to maintain.

2. Large ICBM-carrying platforms will struggle to operate near coasts but will still have a role when hidden far offshore, away from regular routes.

3. Smaller, cheaper submarines will inevitably dominate the market. Any nation that ignores this logic will become obsolete – spending fortunes on few, hard-to-replace hulls while adversaries spend little and field far more efficient forces.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 5, 2024
The Russians pay half the amount for a 152mm shell compared to what the Germans pay for a 30mm ammo.

A while back, I wrote a post about Rheinmetall selling their Caracal 4x4 to the German government for over $600,000. Recently, I've been looking into the variations in ammunition costs among Western companies.

Rheinmetall is asking for over $600 for a Gepaed 35mm round, which is the same price the Russians are paying for a 152mm artillery round. But it doesn't stop there. Rheinmetall also sold 600,000 30mm rounds to be used in the PUMA IFV for $1,000 each.

In all three of these overpriced sales, the client was the German government. To put it in perspective, the US ordered and paid $108 for each round back in 2017. Obviously, costs vary depending on the type of ammo, but $1,000 for a single 30mm round? This puts a burden on the German taxpayers.

There's a concern that Europe wouldn't be able to sustain a war with these prices. They could bankrupt any country before troops are even prepared for combat. The focus here is not on the quality, but rather the sustainable cost during a real war.
A single medium Cal cannon can fire 5,000 rounds in less than one minute. How can pay that bill?Image
Image
Just s personal feeling.

Countries with a smaller industry, mainly light armored vehicles, like the Baltics, had no chance to sell anything. The big sharks just eat the EU budget with high costs, collaborating to a higher concentrated market.
Read 5 tweets
Aug 13, 2023
Yesterday, a video was released on some Russian channels, supposedly recorded in Omsk.

Omsktransmash doesn't work with any MLRS except the TOS-1.

Since June, they haven't been producing new batches of tanks anymore.
Is it now KBTM refurbishing Uragans? Highly unlikely.

These… https://t.co/HZHNgaJR7atwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
This potential military collaboration between former Soviet republics and Russia holds significant importance for the outcome of war.

These nations possess a wide range of armored vehicles, hundreds of artillery systems, and Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS).

They boast a… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
More about the Russian and the former Soviet central republics.

Russia continues importing military equipment despite Western sanctions:



Russia supplies military equipment to Uzbekistan:

https://t.co/kYLUoAeuEU

Russia supplies military technical… https://t.co/rGbNtRi6v5novastan.org/en/non-classe/…
kun.uz/en/news/2021/1…
twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 4 tweets
Aug 7, 2023
Omsktransmash has finished the modernization of a batch of T-80BVM tanks, which are now on their way to Ukraine.

This marks the second batch of tanks in less than 30 days. The previous batch consisted of T90M tanks.

The frequency and size of these batches confirm my previous… https://t.co/xJsMfYHqvHtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The mass production of SOSNA-U devices has indeed put an end to the previous bottleneck in Russia's tank production.

Some months ago, I had discussed the projected waiting time of 2-5 months for these devices. Regrettably, it appears that the allies have missed this window of… https://t.co/spOEBt16jOtwitter.com/i/web/status/1…

Image
Image
Actually, the lack of equipment for Ukraine resulted from serious mistakes. It's a political will, but we need to look a bit earlier.

The Ukrainian Malyshev tank factory was indeed a reputable facility with the capacity to produce hundreds of tanks yearly.

Moreover, Ukraine… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 4 tweets
Jul 3, 2023
It appears that The time windows for an attrition war against Russia was missed.

Months ago, I wrote about the three biggest Russian factories idling their production due to a shortage of electronics.

()

Now, the situation is just the opposite. The… https://t.co/GUxFlOOGte https://t.co/XMV8tDch3k
twitter.com/i/web/status/1…


Recent Govt visit to Omsktransmash.
Recent video about the work on Uraltransmash
Read 4 tweets
Jun 2, 2023
🧵1/11
Patriot still has the same failures as 30y ago.
This thread is specially about the American tax payer, who deserve to spend their money on something that works and a transparent company. These systems cost billions.

Well, to understand this, we must come back to 1991.
2/11
During the 1991 Gulf War, the public was led to believe the that the Patriot had near-perfect performance, intercepting 45 of 47 Scud missiles.
The truth was a system w failures and only 9% of successful interceptions.
The company blamed a software

washingtonpost.com/archive/politi…
3/11
During the Iraqi Freedom:
The command reported that the Patriot missile defense system, scored a perfect nine for nine in interceptions.

The truth was that Iraq launched ballistics and cruise missiles, but Patriots didn't intercept any.

armscontrol.org/act/2003-11/pr…
Read 15 tweets

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