Patricia Marins Profile picture
Apr 1 8 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
🧵1/7
How Putin's premature ambitions just Sabotaged the RU Defense Modernization program:

Russian armed forces were in mid of a modernization program when Putin decided to invade Ukraine.
The problem was that Ukraine also had a modernization program runing fast since 2014.
2/7
The Program was focused on smaller and modern ground force, reducing the active tanks from 23.000 to less than 5.000;
The IFVs from 23.000 to 12.000 and the Airborne from 1500 to 1300 vehicles.
In 2020, RU had modernized les than 1/3 of its smaller forces. In 2022 maybe +15%
3/7

The investment in Navy, specially about New projects and restructuring were enough to keep the forces growing and more modern, in contrast with the land forces.
The shipyard capacity also grew considerably to attend this program.
I'd like to invite @CovertShores to comment.
4/7
The air force was another successful program with more than 70% of modernization lvl, retiring the Su24 and 2/3 of Mig29 fleet.
The attack Rotatory units were also reduced to near 400.
It was the concept of a superpower army: small and modern army, specially on ground forces.
5/7
The MLRS modernization didn't reach the expectations.
The Tornado program just advanced on BM21 with a good upgrade rate to Tornado G, and built two long range missiles, to be used by Smerch launchers.
The production of Iskander misiles and it's brigades were also increased
6/7
The artilleries were the most critical russian equipment: Obsoletes and with a low range. From more than 6.000, the new inventory in 2020 had only 2000 in service.
Rocket launchers were reduced from 4.000 to less than 1.000. Nobody know how many were modernized until 2020
7/7
Opinion:
RU had probably the most important modernization program from its history and a war destroyed it
If less than 1/3 of the land forces were modernized, what's the sense of an invasion?
A wrong decision can destroy years of work.
Now they run to repair old units.
These numbers X loses, put the RU army at a fragile position regarding the land forces. Still able to fight, but I have a feeling about some panic there, specially because RU don't know how the new UKR weapon packet will behave on battlefield and their equipment repair rate.

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More from @pati_marins64

Apr 2
🧵1/5
Just to clarify somethings.

1 - ATACMS can't do maneuvers. It just has fins to adjust the trajectory. It's very different of evasive maneuvers releasing decoys as modern SRBM does.

2 - in 90s, Mach 3 for a Balistic missile was great, but now it must be hypersonic.
2/5

3 - All versions of S-300, S-350, S400 uses only hypersonic missiles.
4 - Even the PAntisir - S2 is getting hypersonic missiles. While the new Buk improved a lot.

5 - Does the speed of missiles matter? Is one important factor for air defense because you get time.
3/5
6 - Radar altitude and range; reaction time/ positioning/ integration and Speed. These are the important factors for ADs.

7 - RU ADs haven't a fast reaction time, but they compensate it with faster missiles.

8 - Himars or Drones can easily bypass ADs, but not balistics.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 31
🧵1/7
Why Russia was forced to abandon Kherson/Kharkov during the ukrainian counter-offensive?

Both, Kherson and Kharkov are mostly flatlands, differently from many cities on Donbas.

The russians had like 80.000 troops on these regions and many MLRS on the Kherson river bank.
2/7

On flatlands you can't count on any hill to take advantage or protect the artilleries. The only protection are mines, and mainly tanks/other armored vehicles.

The russians had T80*, T72b*, T62 and few, really few T90*.

Ukraine had T72M1, T80UD and T64BVs.
(mostly)
3/7
RU
The russians had already set artillery batteries and fortifications. Why they just leave abandoning equipment?

Technology disadvantage!

The RU T72b* and T62 were using 1PN96MT-02 sight. It has a detection range of 3km and target ID at 2km during the day/ 1km night.
Read 10 tweets
Mar 29
1 Some people don't believe that Russian industry is developing solutions to beat the sanctions.
This people must look at Iran, who developed an advanced missile industry in short time.
If you have sanctions, there is no choice, you must search domestic solutions and they do.
2 - This why sanctions aren't the middle or the end, but just the first step to delay - just delay -, something.
Russian industry is far from soviet times, but still has an enormous capacity.
Almost every research institute produce some kind of military equipment in Russia.
3 - Nothing take years in wars. They are improving and investing a lot of money in their capabilities. It's a survivor question for them as not every euro country consider this war.
Some people has no idea about who is the enemy and this raise the probability of defeat.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 29
🧵1/6
RU optics industry are running fast to mass produce domestically.
During the last 8-10y, the RU industry is trying to reduce the dependence on foreign equipment. While the French thermal/night were imported, interestingly the T90 was also using TVN-5M (11)made in Ukraine.
2/6
Actually the RU optics industry is runing fast and already have devices able to detect a target at 5km or even more depending of the area, what is a good improvement and getting near the western capabilities.
The RU optics complex has like 80 companies.

Images from sosna-u:
3/6
First image is from a French equipment and other 3 are from a russian made new device.
See that the French image is superior, but the RU is improving a lot in a short período. Thermal/night and others sensors are the biggest issue in Russia electronics.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 27
🧵1/3
Why is Russia deploying tanks without ERA protection?

These T55 tanks have a frontal armor of 200-250mm, what is very vulnerable, but if you add ERA, it can survive against most of the anti-tank conventional fires.

The historical Co. NII Stali is the manufacturer of ERA. Image
2/3

Different from what many people think, using ERA tanks are an important piece on battlefield. Personally I'm on the IFV team, but this is another talk.
ERA is effective and can extend the survivability of the T62 and T55 on battlefield, even being used for infantry support. ImageImage
3/3

There are only two reasons for that:
1 - NII Stali can't produce enough ERA, due to RU repairing many vehicles and have to priorize the most modern;

2 - NO MONEY. The ERA kit cost around $200k-250k for Russia. It's not cheap considering that repair a T55 is around $300k. ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
Mar 23
🧵1/6

The 3 biggest Russian tank factories are idling due to electronics.

The Uralvagonzavod, Omsktransmash and Kurganmashzavod are working with semi-finished armored vehicles. This is when you produce the unit, but didn't assemble the interior equipment, extern sensors, etc.
2/6

RU vehicles always were using 60-90s technology. But 2 components break this cycle: Thermal/Night sights.
The navigation and fire control are completely manufactured in Russia.
A detail, the 2E36-I and 2E52 stabilizers for BMP-2 /BMP-3 are made in Ukr by PETROVSKIY KYIV.
3/6
FCS
The Russian holding Vysokotochnye Kompleks has around 20 companies developing high precision components as Fire controls, sensors, etc.
The Novosibirsk Instrument Making Plant, RFAS and Vologda Optical are also manufacturing FCS.

I don't think they miss components there.
Read 10 tweets

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