But we do see a concerted ramp-up in inauthentic activity on twitter and social media intended to make you THINK there is a rise in climate denialism. My twitter feed has been littered with it in recent months. Here's an example from just a few minutes ago:
We (@Rahmstorf et al) inferred this scenario eight years ago in this @NatureClimate study:
(see also Stefan's #RealCimate commentary: )
Key figure below. Even then, there was evidence that conveyor collapse might be underway: nature.com/articles/nclim… realclimate.org/index.php/arch…
@rahmstorf @NatureClimate I discussed the evidence that has since accumulated for potential ocean conveyor ("AMOC") collapse in this @PNASNews article a couple years ago: pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn…
Remember when climate deniers were claiming back in 2012 that global warming had paused and models were overestimating greenhouse warming?🧵
That was based on cherry-picking starting & stopping dates, exploiting a decadal excursion of natural climate variability that led to a temporary slowdown of warming through 2012 or so (the observations are red, the average over models is black: ) realclimate.org/index.php/arch…
When we look at the subsequent comparison through the present, we instead see that the models and observations agree well, including the provisional value for 2023 (green vertical bar at the end).
Interesting analysis and op-ed in the @NYTimes the other day from my friend & colleague Zeke @Hausfath which argues for an acceleration of recent surface warming:
@NASAGISS I not only reproduced Zeke's result, but found an even bigger effect, with the trend from 2008-2023 a whopping 70% greater than the trend from 1970-2008
(the difference in trend is statistically significant at the p=0.01 i.e. 99% level)
Remarkable to me that some seemingly cannot hold these two entirely compatible facts in their minds at the same time: 1. The Hamas attack was a barbarous act of terrorism. 2. Disputes over resources (esp. water) have been a contributing factor behind all middle east conflict. 🧵
Instead, I get angry responses from some that reduce this nuanced point, made in my recent @TheHill op-ed (), to the childish caricature that I somehow claimed that water access was behind the Hamas attack.thehill.com/opinion/energy…
@thehill Obviously, I didn't say that. I said that the battle for water has always been an underlying factor in middle east conflict, including conflict between Israel & Palestine, and that climate change is amplifying that underlying stress. There is substantial scholarship behind that.
@jayrosen_nyu A couple billion dollars from Saudis was a great investment, if they were looking to suppress climate-forward messaging and promote climate denial/inaction propaganda on the world's leading social media platform
()aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/2…
It's instructive to look at the actual North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures right now (): 🧵 https://t.co/DwAGkkGfM9climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
If we look at the SST ANOMALY pattern (departure from normal) instead, the eastern North Atlantic looks extremely warm. As we see above, it's actually cool there (as it always is). Just no nearly as cool as normal.
One of the reasons is unusually low Saharan dust (which normally helps cool the eastern tropical/subtropical Atlantic this time of year) due to weakened trades. That may be changing. See this previous thread: