@MichaelEMann's Threads
One of the most enduring climate change denial talking points is that there is no trend in hurricane-related damages.
This claim is based almost entirely on the claims of one researcher, Roger Pielke Jr. See e.g. @SkepticScience: skepticalscience.com/climate-change…
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This claim is based almost entirely on the claims of one researcher, Roger Pielke Jr. See e.g. @SkepticScience: skepticalscience.com/climate-change…
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@skepticscience As I have noted several times before (See: ), Pielke’s claims are based on (1) a dubious normalization procedure that divides damages by global domestic product (GDP), a quantity that increases dramatically over time and...
@skepticscience (2) use of a simple least squares trend which is problematic for data such as these with a skew distribution. These choices suppress damage trends
"It's not an uncommon view among scientists that we potentially compromise our objectivity if we choose to wade into policy matters or societal implications of our work. And it would be problematic if our views on policy somehow influenced the way we went about doing our science"
"But there is nothing inappropriate at all about drawing on our scientific knowledge to speak out about the very real implications of our research."
"If scientists choose not to engage in the public debate, we leave a vacuum that will be filled by those whose agenda is one of short-term self-interest..."
Much is being made of a graph depicting changes in methane concentrations at Barrow Alaska and a recent supposed spike over the last year.
Let's catch our breath for a moment and put this in proper scientific context.
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Let's catch our breath for a moment and put this in proper scientific context.
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The 2019 measurements are consistent with the trend over the past decade. Outliers (i.e. isolated data points that lie well above the average) are seen throughout the record. Do not over-interpret them.
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We see in the above graph a slowdown during the 1990s. This is well studied and understood. It has to do with a temporary reduction in wetlands methane emissions during that time: sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/…
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I’m troubled by some very misleading statements and claims made at this public-facing @NOAA website on “Global Warming and Hurricanes”:
gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming…
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gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming…
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@NOAA Among the problems are indefensible claims about the supposed non-significance of trends in hurricane activity. This includes tropical cyclone and hurricane counts and the proportion of storms that reach the highest (cat 4 and 5) categories.
@NOAA These claims are based on fitting linear trends to the associated time series.
More than a decade ago, Kerry Emanuel and I showed (meteo.psu.edu/holocene/publi…) that this approach is problematic.
More than a decade ago, Kerry Emanuel and I showed (meteo.psu.edu/holocene/publi…) that this approach is problematic.
There have been some wildly untruthful claims about the recent dismissal of libel litigation against Tim Ball circulating on social media. Here is our statement (facebook.com/MichaelMannSci…):
Here is a followup statement from my lawyer Roger McConchie regarding the Tim Ball defamation case responding to additional false claims by climate change deniers:
What does it say about Tim Ball's honesty (and that of the right-wingers trumpeting the latest court development) that they conveniently failed to note that Ball sought to dismiss the case based on his alleged health problems:
Some interviews I did over the holiday weekend about the new #NationalClimateAssessment report and the science, impacts, politics, and way forward on climate change (thread):
My interview Friday with @KatyTurNBC: us.wildmoka.com/c/clip/bIUVoY
