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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Apr 1 • 5 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The weapon cloud of the Ukrainian Tochka-U strike is consistent with a thermobaric warhead.

If it was a thermobaric warhead, every Wagner PMC 'contractor' in the AZOM plant was just killed.

1/4
The fact Ukraine developed a thermobaric warhead for its Tochka-U was announced by the Ukrainian General Staff in 2016.

2/4
It looks like AFU was saving one of these few remaining weapons for just the right target.

My gut feeling here is that Ukraine just assassinated several Wagner or Russian Army VIP's.

We will know this went down if there is a Russian cruise missile volley into Ukrainian

3/4
...civilian areas in the next couple of days.

It is what Putin automatically does when Ukraine publicly defeats Russia in any manner.

4/4
@threadreaderapp unroll please.

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 3
Thanks to @svillsss and a correspondent of mine, we all have an answer to the mystery of a forklift in a 1988 Soviet logistical document, given the near total dearth of domestic Soviet production of them for the Red Army.

Soviet Era Forklift & Intelligence validation🧵

1/12 ImageImage
I had two sources pop up with the answer.

First on email:

2/12
Then this Tweet by the @svillsss account on the Bulgarian lift truck/forklift company that supplied all the Warsaw Pact.

3/12
Image
Read 12 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 2
WW2's persecuting's attorney is stating to the jury that Ukraine has stolen it's "obsolete" tactics.

1/3
This is WW2's prosecutor exhibit from WW2 era Gibraltar just presented to the jury.

2/3 ImageImage
This is another WW2's prosecutor exhibit from WW2 era Battle of Britain.

3/3 Image
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 2
For those who do not know, PBXN-109 explosive is both insensitive and thermobaric.

That is, it is REALLY hard to set off and explodes with extra fuel such that it that burns in the blast wave after detonation.

It's a "bang with a napalm burn."

1/5
PBXN-109 is composed of 64% RDX, 20% aluminum, plus 16% binder. It is designed for "internal blast applications," AKA bunkers, basements, and tunnels.

The Global Security -dot- org article link below goes into the technical context.

2/5
 globalsecurity.org/military/syste…
The side by side video by @UAWeapons below shows the tell tale smoke cloud of a thermobaric explosive jetting out of a small space that no longer has enough oxygen to burn the available aluminum fuel.

3/5
Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 31
The relative dearth of RuAF tactical trucks and the large number of semi-tractor trailers on this Mariupol and Melitopol supply route says Russia has pulled a lot of transport from the Russian economy to replace lost military trucks.

1/5
A Ukrainian counter-offensive that gets within GMLRS M30A1 (tungsten fragment variant) range of such a Russian traffic jam will turn it into a Kuwaiti style "Highway of Death."

And please note they are using civilian tractor-trailers to move fuel.


2/5
While the Russian economy has "transportation capacity slack" from Western sanctions lowering imports.

The loss of large numbers of semi-tractors would be nearly irreplaceable because of Western sanctions.

3/5
Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 31
I've been researching World War 2 for an article I'm writing up and there are times when I read WW2 US Army intelligence reports and it's like..."What the hell were they thinking."

And then I look at the Russo-Ukrainian War🙄

A Patron-Client "Intelligence Failure" 🧵
1/
Exhibit A is this clip from the 10th Army's intelligence monograph in July 1945.

This paragraph is talking about an IJA artillery unit addressing the fact it has 1000 shells per gun.

Then it talks about _HOW FEW SHELLS_ the IJA uses for targets versus US Army standards.
2/
The "clue-by-four" here is that Okinawa lasted 83 days. 1000 rounds divided by 83 is 12 rounds a day with 4 shells left over for day 84.

The IJA didn't have a choice.

Read & think about that in light of how Ukraine is fighting Russia right now in perpetual shell shortage.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 28
@DanielGDosen Russia is going hand to mouth with new mobiks & wounded mobiks being thrown into the meatgrinder.

The Russian Army order of battle (Orbat) may have been 400k in Feb 2022. The actual body count was not over 300k due to the ghost troop scam, AKA pretend troops exist & pocket pay.
@DanielGDosen Everything deployable - 190,000 - was sent in by the end of April 2022.

Lots of non deployable assets in Feb 2022 were made to be deployable throughout the year, deployed and consumed.

They stripped all of the training establishments and then stripped the academies,
2/
@DanielGDosen and gave all of the student-cadet junior officer commissions so they could deploy them, that happened Q2/Q3 2022.

RuAF also stripped the research establishments, and logistics for bodies.

It appears most were used up as infantry.

3/
Read 7 tweets

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