Thread by @jmkorhonen

To followers outside Finland, a brief recap of the Finnish elections.

First: Sanna Marin's loss was expected. In Finland, the prime minister nearly always loses the elections. Consecutive governments happen only when the opposing coalition doesn't win enough.

Second: that said, Marin's social democrats performed better than expected. They increased their vote share and gained three new seats in the 200-seat parliament. This is very rare: AFAIK, the prime minister's party has done the same only twice before, in 1983 and 2003.

Third: The winner, the moderate conservative National Coalition (NC) will now try to form the government. That will be an exciting exercise. It has 48 seats. The 2nd party, the radical populist right Finns, has 46. A stable government needs well over 100 seats - perhaps 110.

Furthermore, by tradition, the non-voting Speaker of the parliament comes from the governing coalition.

So a flat right NC-Finns government would have 48+46-1 = 93 voting seats. Not enough. They need at least 12, preferably 17+ seats from other partners.

(Assuming the NC and the Finns can agree on a common platform. The NC has promised to retain Finland's ambitious "climate neutrality by 2035" law, and doesn't want to restrict immigration, partly b/c Finnish businesses support both strongly; the Finns want to get rid of both.)

Requisite seats could in principle come from the following:
- Liberal right Swedish people's party (9 seats +1 from Åland islands)
- Conservative Christian Democrats (5)
- a millionaire's pet project (1)

But! The Finns party and the Swedish people's party are long-term enemies.

So it is uncertain whether the Swedish people's party would agree to be on a government where the ultranationalistic, anti-Swedish language (Finland is officially bilingual, the Finns want to end that too) party is a major player, and whose platform isn't very liberal.

This leaves in practice one option for the right-wing NC-Finns government: one of the biggest losers, the Center party that used to dominate rural Finland until yesterday, needs to get on board.

That would boost the coalition to 116 seats and a safe majority. At least...

...unless and until the Finns collapse in infighting, like they did the last time they were in government: the party split mid-term, with the majority being shown the door.

What the Center party will do is a very good question .

The second option would be a NC-Social Democrat (SDP) coalition, a "blue-red" government. But the ideological differences are considerable, and the NC-SDP government would also need to woo smaller parties. I think it is more likely that the Center party joins the right.

A NC-Finns goverment would be unpredictable and at least rhetorically more averse to the EU. But it strongly supports NATO membership and at least for now, Ukraine. That could change, as the Finns in particular are already saying that we are spending too much.

The NC-Finns coalition would try austerity and probably mess up quite a few investment opportunities in green transition. The Finns' record in handling practical politics is poor. The last time in government they nearly killed one of their ministers from overwork.

But significant changes in Finnish policies are unlikely. Even the green transition is now proceeding apace, and the businesses are actually far more supportive of it than just about any party.

The poor and the downtrodden will unfortunately be trodden down even harder. The Finns don't mind economically senseless policies as long as they can exert authority and hierarchy over their favorite enemies - the foreigners, the greens, the left.

A few additions. This was a significant loss for the left and the greens. The Left Alliance lost 5 seats out of 16, the Greens 7 out of 20. Part of the reason was "tactical voting" to support SDP, but only a part.

Finnish politics took a more conservative turn, no doubt.

Finland has always been the most conservative of the Nordic countries. Even the 1918 civil war echoes faintly in the political discourse. The Finnish economy used to be dominated by huge companies - which tends to sharpen the left-right divide.

Marin's government faced THREE exceptionally tough challenges: the worst pandemic in a century, the largest and most dangerous (to Finland) war since 1945, ND the worst energy crisis since 1973.

That on top of other problems, some inherited from previous right-wing governments.

The right and much of the media attacked Marin at every turn. Most of the criticism was motivated or at least exacerbated by three things: she was a
1) young
2) woman
3) leftist.

Despite all that, Marin was hugely popular. She was the popular favorite for a prime minister.

And AFAIK no government since polling began has scored higher approval ratings for the entire term of office.

I'd also say that she performed admirably. E.g. employment record was broken despite the aforementioned crises she had to deal with. Finland joined NATO. Etc.

The major issue the right used in their election messaging, national debt, did increase - but not one opposition party managed to present a "shadow budget" that in actuality would've taken significantly less debt.

Debt levels are still very manageable, even low on Euro scale.

What was disappointing was the government's record on environmental issues. Marin promised a lot, but the government didn't deliver. A major reason was the Center party, which seems to be in principle against environmental protections. And the three crises diverted attention.

I for one follow with interest how the right-wing populist Finns are going to govern. They didn't even manage to publish a political program before the elections, and their leading figures already interpret their vague promises in totally opposite ways.

Therefore, in a NC-Finns government, the moderate conservative NC would be calling all the shots. It would throw a few bones to the Finns, who then spin those into massive victories.

The NC would hopefully curb some excesses at least - because the businesses want them to.

I'm not a fan of the Finns and consider them hostile to democracy: they show all the signs of populist, autocratic right-wing party that sees opposition as a public enemy.

But Finnish democracy is stable. The Finns were in government once already. They aren't an acute threat.

PS. the vote tally shows that SDP got 616 218 votes, the Finns party 620 102.

A difference of 3 884 votes, nationally.

Great performance, under the circumstances.

https://twitter.com/MattiMorttinen/status/1642782362604904455?s=20

PS2. Note also that I'm employed by the think tank of the Finnish Social Democratic Party, and did vote for SDP myself.

That said, I chose my affiliation after 15 years of research into sustainability transition. I believe that the SDP is best positioned for a fair transition.