Leon Simons Profile picture
Apr 3 6 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
This is starting to get ridiculous.
Global oceans have never been this warm: 20.1°C.

Does this help people outside the aerosol and Earth Energy Imbalance community understand the effects of reducing sulfur emissions over the oceans? Image
21.1°C that is..
See here all the past 42 years and the Sea Surface Temperature map (not anomalies).

Note that the Equatorial Pacific is still relatively cold. An El Niño event would have made SSTs much warmer still.. Image
This is clear from the Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) Difference from the Global Mean SSTA: Image
Niño 3.4 Index is still neutral.

And global surface air temperatures are kept relatively low by La Niña of the past months (~5 month delay). Image
The International Maritime Organization (@IMOHQ) didn't do an extensive assessment of potential climatic effects of rapidly reducing sulfur fuels.

They did get an analysis done on Marine Cloud Brightening, which gives some insight in doing the opposite: ImageImage

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More from @LeonSimons8

Apr 5
🍚BREAKING METHANE!🐄

Global CH4 concentrstion reached a record high of 1925!

To be sure:
📢IPPC's LOW EMISSIONS SCENARIOS HAVE METHANE CONCENTRATIONS DECREASING, NOT INCREASING!📢 ImageImage
After two successive record years (never happened before) of global methane increase, 2022 finished third (shared place with 1991), up 14 ppb.

Source @NOAAClimate:
gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_ch… Image
What methane is concerned, we are on the path of exceeding 4°C. Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 5
Is El Niño already here, just not yet fully at the surface? Image
Relatively cold water is rapidly being replaced by warmer water across the Equatorial Pacific.
The anomalies (bottom) show that the blue colors (La Niña) have rapidly disappeared across the tropics in the past three months.

Also note how both the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans stay warmer than normal.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 3
We visited this @bp_plc oil refinery in Rotterdam.🛢🔥🌎

It's hard to comprehend the scale at which oil is being refined here.
Capacity is 400,000 barrels/day!

A 🧵 on scale of the energy, and of the climate impact. Image
Let's stick to order of magnitudes here, to keep things relatively simple.

How much energy is in 400,000 barrels of oil per day? It's about 27 GW in refined energy, comparable to twice the average amount of electricity used in The Netherlands! Image
Down the street of BP another refinery, owned by Britsh @Shell.

These two refineries are the largest in Europe and refine about 1% of the 100 million barrels of oil that the world uses every day.

We need energy. But oil emits a lot of CO2 when burned. ImageImage
Read 9 tweets
Mar 28
Don't look up is a documentary.

@LeoDiCaprio
@JLawrence_RepUs
@dontlookupfilm
@LeoDiCaprio @JLawrence_RepUs @dontlookupfilm We are facing:

-Rapid warming from decreasing sulfur emissions
-Strong El Niño
-Strong solar maximum
-Increasing greenhouse gases
-Extreme Earth Energy Imbalance
-Hunga Tonga WV
-Sea ice feedbacks

All coinciding into an extreme global warming event..
Read 11 tweets
Mar 27
Equatorial Pacific is rapidly warming. Heat is starting to surface.

Strong El Niño forcast.
Especially Niño 3+4 area is seeing rapid warming. ImageImage
NINO regions: Image
Read 12 tweets
Mar 21
There are some great figures in the new IPCC report, but this one didn't make the summary.

I wish it did, because we might lose our country.
By 2050, 1 billion people will be exposed to extreme sea level events every four years!!! Image
This next figure was included.

It is the low-likelihood, high impact storyline which we should focus on.

Or do we except a 5% chance of losing The Netherlands (and other low lying civilisations)? Image
And if you don't like the very high emission scenario, here I've also plotted the low emissions scenario (SSP2-2.6).

I even included the scribbly note and arrows, to keep things light.

And increased the axes, to visualize the longer term and higher values. Image
Read 4 tweets

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