Thread by @witte_sergei

Quick note on what's happening in Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces in the city are being ground out right now and are very unlikely to hold out much longer, with multiple axes of Russian advance converging on the remaining UA held areas. (1)

(Base map provided by @Suriyakmaps)

Russian progress has been steady over the last few weeks. Rybar's maps from March 20 and April 3 show the steady contraction of Ukraine's positions inside the city. (2)

The battle is in its climactic phase. The previous focus was the Russian envelopment on the wings, but over the last few weeks Russian forces have begun to break down Ukraine's remaining positions in the city proper. (3)

The problem for the Ukrainian defenders is threefold. First, they are trapped in a tight firebag which exposes them to intense Russian fires. Second, Wagner has full control of the flanks and is squeezing the city in a clamp. (4)

Third, Russian fire on the remaining UA roads prevents adequate supply from reaching forward Ukrainian positions. Just two days ago some Ukrainian forces posted video of destroyed vehicles on the Krhomove road (highlighted on the first map). (5)

https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1642503448397479937?s=20

The shrinking firebag has greatly shortened the frontline in the city. This magnifies Russia's combat effectiveness edge, as it concentrates the firepower in the city and leaves Ukraine fighting in a shrinking grid which is saturated with Russian fires. (6)

The Ukrainians are rapidly being pushed back across the rail line, at which point the urban blocks give way to dachas and other more suburban features. They were powerless to stop Russian forces from breaching and overrunning the Bakhmutovka River. (7)

So in short, Ukraine's position inside the firebag is deteriorating rapidly. Adequate supply is difficult, but the bigger problem for the UA is that they are confined in such a tight grid that their combat effectiveness is compromised. The Russian net is tightening. (8)

Ukraine has already lost some 70% of Bakhmut and will likely lose the remainder over the next two weeks. Russian forces enjoy a clear qualitative combat effectiveness advantage in Bakhmut right now, and Ukraine can do nothing to stop the liquidation of the pocket. (9)