A simple lesson in identifying your 'range' / 'broadening formation'
Must know what is a swing low or swing high we'd deem as important.
Here is a swing low
Yellow is the 'invalidation' of it if you were taking this hammer signal.
This is also a swing low.
Swing high example
I hope you guys see the #BoxSetup logic & why we like the 15s timeframes just from these alone.
This is the most important part so pay attention.
This is not a swing high.
This is a consolidation, this is waiting to decide.
Until the mother bar to this inside bar gets violated on either side I do not consider it a swing high.
The second we see new highs occur is when we can then start looking for more 'range' to be put in
This is because when you're stuck in a consolidation you have NO range to target, it is simultaneously creating range and taking out range within a larger range. Aka CHOP SHOP.
Now that we know what a solid swing high and swing low looks like.
How do we actually identify where price is going and which 'pivots' will give good actionable signals?
It's actually really simple!
Swing highs and lows get PAIRED together.
The pairing of the highs and lows is the 'broadening formation magic'.
If we look to the LEFT as much as possible and zoom out we can identify the external areas of the range that will give you the *ACTUAL* move that people talk about all the time.
When people say it's a 'fake' move they are talking about the run into the external range.
That move becomes fake when you take liquidity and create a reversal.
On a HTF it'll be a strat reversal
On a LTF you'll see ICT concepts if the range is large enough
8H NQ STUCK = BF
On small range days aka 'seek 'n' destroy' days you're given price action without retracements like today more often than not.
Seek 'n' destroy is an ict coin of a broadening formation.
The funny thing is seek 'n' destroy happens on our larger ranges as well..
So how do we identify the larger ranges?
The SAME exact way that we identified that smaller consolidation.
Identify your swing highs and lows
The second we get a candle a penny below we can then look for a reversal signal higher.
The lower timeframe on this chart is a little bit hard to distinguish so we can bump the timeframe up or down.
Given we expect news / volatility at NY open we should be on LTF with the HTF idea if we want to reduce our risk [at the risk of stopping out more often.
Now I ask you follow the charts and thought process.
Part 1 is where we sit on hands
Part 2 is where we still sit on hands
Part three gives you some decent internal range to play.
Notice how there is technically some false 'strat signals'
That's why the stops are tight and why we want actionable signals.
Another thing to add on not getting stopped out of positions as often.
We want to wait for liquidity to be ran on the timeframe we're trading on.
Not always will there be a swing high then new high then reversal but it IS what we want to see.
The reason we WANT to see that is because it helps us do TWO things.
First it helps us define WHEN we should take action back into the external range.
SECOND it is a 'tell' that the 'new range' is beginning.
Entry model [use ICT or strat entries]
I wanted to touch on how we draw BF's based on the ideas of swing highs. I'll add that when I have some time if you guys like the thread.
Long story short with the BF's
Until there is a new swing high formed it is 'expando' of the range.
Once the swing high forms we re-draw
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There's a reason I've learned every strategy including #ICT, Supply & Demand, Elliot Wave, Support / Resistance, EMAs SMAs, Breakout trading, etc.
And I don't use ANY of them as a full time trader.
I'll share everything I know so far about trading after the last 5+ years..
The last thing I share will make you look at every chart in a 100% new way if you've never seen this.
Here's some lies and excuses you've heard. You'll find these hilarious by the end of this thread
1)You have to have a bias
2)This only works during certain market conditions
3)You have to lose 10s of thousands of dollars first
4)Algorithms are taking my stops
5)The market makers are screwing me
... the list goes on.
The truth is this..
Before you can trade you have to know what price is trying to do.
If you are chasing higher win rates you NEED to know this.
🧵 Short Thread
1) Risk reward has nothing to do with how the market is going to move.
It is always easier for the market to move 50 cents to your stop versus 2 dollars to your target.
Thus, your stop will always be more likely to be taken than your profit target with standard, single chart analysis.
2) The way to fix this is to find an 'edge' aka a place where you have a higher probability of price going in the direction of your target than the direction of your stop.
All of technical analysis is boiled down to this simple idea.
This is EVERYTHING I wish I was told when I started.
#1 What strategies do
Every strategy is trying to do the same thing, quantify [objectively describe] what the market is doing so that we can find repeating conditions and make money. Allowing us to have a trade idea [where to buy/sell] an invalidation of that idea [where we exit for a loss] and a target [where price is going]
The problem is many strategies rely on subjectivity. Meaning two traders trading a the same strategy can have two differing opinions on what the market is doing and what the market will do next.
Support and resistance traders have differing opinions on what qualifies as support and resistance.
Supply and demand traders have differing opinions on what qualifies as supply or demand zones.
etc.
If your strategy is based on opinion then you'll never be able to reliably identify the same condition over and over and therefore not be able to find consistency.
We'll build on this later.
#2 Trading educators
If you hear these things from any trading educator you need to find a new person to listen to.
"The market makers are taking my stops"
+ This means they have no idea why price just did what it did, this is victim mentality
"Price is going from 90 to 130, I'm in at 90!"
-> "We hit 100 I'm reducing half"
-> "We hit 105 I'm reducing again"
-> "We hit 115 I'm reducing more!"
-> "We hit 130! Took out my last piece!"
This means they had no idea price was going from 90 to 130, if they knew it was going to move 40$ they would've added to their trade the whole way.
Most people have no idea why Christians are so head over heels for Jesus and think it's foolish.
In light of Easter this weekend lets break it down in a way that's easy to comprehend. Regardless of your belief or faith.
First, what is this "Good Friday?"
It is the day that Jesus died on the cross.
This is a historical fact & even most athiest scholars attest that this was a real historical event.
In Christianity this is believed as God showing up as a man--like a hand fills a glove, living a perfect life & accepting the suffering on the cross to show his love to the world and to offer forgiveness to every single person.
Including yourself.
We'll get to why God would even decide to do that in a second..
Now, why would God go through so much pain? Well the problem comes from the beginning of humanity.
Adam & Eve were tempted in the garden to eat from the tree of the knowledge of Good & Evil. They fell to this temptation & they ate from the tree.
The second they did this, they suddenly understood concepts like right and wrong, shame, and vulnerability.
They realized they were naked & hid themselves from God.