Thread by @GLandsbergis

China is not trying to help Russia, or anybody else. China only helps China. Xi is trying to create an alternative to Pax Americana, realigning as many countries as possible under a new order: Pax Sinica. This what this means: 🧵

China’s model is based on domination, not negotiation. Subscribers to Pax Sinica receive China’s aid without burdensome human rights requirements, but eventually fall into traps that ensure the house always wins. Pax Cynica, no less.

Beijing has decided that now is the time to project its power globally. The so-called peace proposal for Ukraine, mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran is just the beginning. We cannot now expect to change China’s course by persuasion.

We should remember that attempts to contain Russia by offering economic partnership failed. Putin was in fact emboldened by our flexibility, not persuaded. Similar tactics would also embolden China. Let's not make the same mistake twice.

The lure of Pax Sinica can be diminished if we strengthen the rules-based order that already exists and ensure that it remains the fairest and most reliable proposition for most of the world’s countries.

Preaching de-risking while marching ahead with business-as-usual is not an option. Surely we have learnt that increasing dependencies on totalitarian states weakens us as we discard the principles that made us strong.

We must get serious. De-risking is a much-needed quick fix but we must also be ready for what might follow. We are woefully unprepared for the possibility that Xi’s trajectory might ultimately leave us no choice but to decouple.

Defending all of Ukraine is absolutely the best way to show any potential allies of China that we will always defend the rules-based order that enables stability and therefore prosperity.

To maintain the rules-based order we will have to consider reshaping international political, trade and financial institutions. Where reshaping is not an option, we must consider creating new structures.

Finally, we must be very clear that there will be severe consequences if China tries to violate the rules-based international order. This cannot be empty talk. We must be well prepared for where all of this might take us.