Thread by @WyAyeScout

Following his side's 2-0 defeat at St. James Park, Erik Ten Hag said: “Newcastle played above their levels”

With #NUFC now in 3rd in the table, in this🧵 @edit_kev puts the Manchester United manager's words to the test & takes a look at how #NUFC are shaping for the run-in 👇

So, to do this effectively, we’re going to split this analysis into three sections:

1️⃣ A summary of #NUFC’s season to date
2️⃣ The last 10 games
3️⃣ Player usage

Let’s dive in 👇

1️⃣ The season to date

So far, #NUFC’s 🔴 success has primarily been built on defence, which exceeds the league av. 🔵 per-90 for:

◾Shots conceded (10.19)
◾Expected goals conceded (0.89 xGC)
◾Passes allowed per defensive action (8.64 PPDA)
◾Actual goals conceded (0.70)

One of the key reasons behind this defensive success is the introduction of a high-pressing style.

This season, #NUFC are engaging the opposition in their own half enabling them to win the ball back more often via misplaced passes caused by this pressure.

Coupled with the excellent form of Nick Pope - who has 3.57 non-penalty goals saved above average (GSSA) - it’s made #NUFC league leaders for:

🥇 Goals conceded - 19
🥇 Clean sheets - 13

When it comes to their use of the ⚽ Howe’s men are no slouches. In fact, #NUFC 🔵 are ahead of the league av. 🔴 per-90 for:

◾Shots for (14.26)
◾Expected goals (1.57 xG)
◾Set-piece Expected goals (0.49 xG)
◾AND actual goals scored (1.52)

A comparison with the rest of the EPL is revealing.

Across the entire season so far #NUFC have the 3rd best xGC (1st goals against) & the 4th best xG (8th goals for) in the #EPL

In short, Erik Ten Hag was wrong about #NUFC “levels” & we’re a genuine top-four prospect.

In fact, the only thing that has held #NUFC back from being in an even stronger position to qualify for the Champions League has been our finishing.

Overall, we’re just shy of 7 goals behind our expected values. Even a couple extra could’ve turned draws into wins 👇

This underperformance in front of goal hasn’t been spread evenly.

While #NUFC were riding a finishing hot streak before the World Cup, this was followed by a finishing slump since the restart.

This is illustrated in this season's xG Difference vs Goal Difference trendline 👇

2️⃣ The last 10 games

This brings us to the 2nd part of this analysis. How are #NUFC performing right now?

A look at #NUFC’s Attacking (left) & Defensive (right) radars starting from January 1st vs. the season overall shows that, generally, our levels have remained the same 👇

When we take another peak at how our xG & xGC compares with the rest of the league, we see a similar story.

Since Jan 1st #NUFC have the 3rd best xGC (0.86) & the 3rd best xG (1.61) in the #EPL 👇

Here are #NUFC’s maps of shots for (left) and against (right) since Jan 1st.

While #NUFC remain incredible at preventing chances in our own six-yard box, at the other end of the pitch we’ve scored just 8 goals in open play from 16.78 xG in just TEN games 👇

It was the introduction of Alexander Isak to the #NUFC first team, that helped to break this slump.

With 4 goals (Pens included) since his return to the starting line-up, see shot map - (left) 👇

That header vs. Wolves (right) still feels massive.

But it’s not just Isak’s form that’s been picking up.

So many of #NUFC's key performance indicators are improving over a 10-game rolling average:

📈 Passes into the box
📈 Corner xG
📈 Pressure Regains
📈 High-Pressure Shots

Are all trending upwards 👇

When it comes to getting the ball into dangerous areas from open play, #NUFC remains reliant on the right-hand side.

Since Jan 1st they have passed or carried the ball into the box:

Left Wing - 14 Passes | 23 Carries
Right Wing - 36 Passes | 16 Carries

3️⃣ Player Usage

So we come to the last section of our thread: Player usage.

With a higher than #EPL average player age of 27.8 years old, #NUFC will lean heavily on the experience of the five first-team regulars aged 31 or over. 👇

When we look at these minutes on a scatter plot we see 3️⃣ distinct groups:

🟩 Younger players with high usage
🟥 Older players with high usage
🟧 Younger players with low usage

With 🔟 games over the next 7️⃣ weeks, #NUFC will hope to give 🟧 players time on the pitch 👇

If we can avoid injuries to our key players 🤞 #NUFC’s remaining fixtures the team is playing well enough to truly say our ability to finish in the top-4 is in our hands.

And if we do manage to accomplish this, it won’t be because #NUFC “played above their levels” #HWTL