Thread by @policytensor

Here's why Jagan Ganesh is totally wrong about the link he posits bw Ukraine and Taiwan. 1/🧵

https://twitter.com/ElbridgeColby/status/1643241529836707841

Start with Ambivaland, a hypothetical state somewhere bw Singapore and Japan. It finds not Beijing but DC "high-handed" and it trusts the West more than it trusts China. More importantly, the choice is not choosing bw the two superpowers at all. 2/

Ambivaland's grand-strategy for several decades has relied on plugging into the Sino-centric production system of what @BaldwinRE called "Factory Asia", even as it relies on our security provision as a guarantee against potential military threats from China. 3/

This is not an either-or question; it is a both question. Ambivaland's grand-strategy and developmental strategy does *not* work without either. The entire model is conditional on Sino-American detente and cannot work without it. 4/

This means that, by ending Sino-American detente unilaterally, we're destroying the preconditions for the Asian peace. See @WonkVJ's book on this issue. 5/

Taiwan is the linchpin of our military position in Asia. If we abandon Taiwan under duress, it will destroy the credibility of our security guarantee to Ambivaland. 6/

If we decide to withdraw our defense perimeter to a more defensible position, we must do so of our own volition and taking great care to reassure Ambivaland of our commitment. This is almost impossible to achieve, so, contra @PatPorter76 I'm against it. 7/

People need to understand that our anti-China policy necessarily requires us to depart Europe for Asia, and do so permanently, leaving the Europeans to defend Europe. 8/

Western grand-standing will not solve the problem posed by China closing the gap in strategic arms. The reason the military is panicking about China invading Taiwan "by 2027" has nothing to do with their assessment of Chinese intentions. 9/

It has to do with the fact that with strategic parity, our deterrent threat will no longer be credible, and once that happens, China can take potentially take Taiwan despite our determined resistance. 10/

Once China has closed the gap in strategic arms, we simply cannot hold the line in both Europe and Asia—our deterrent threats will no longer be credible against either Russia or China. Having forced their strategic marriage, we shall be in a position of nuclear inferiority. 11/

The only way to have a new Cold War with both Russia and China—which is where we're headed—is for Europe to take the responsibility for defending Europe and for us to decamp to Asia permanently. 12/

This is what is at issue in our sinking resources and attention in Ukraine to achieve Dems' goal of punishing Putin. Biden's writing checks we cannot cash. We simply cannot afford it. /13

As for demonstrating resolve and credibility, this is not how credibility works. See the argument in Bridge's book, as well as Daryl Press's Calculating Credibility. /14

Moreover, the idea that we've demonstrated our power in Ukraine is self-congratulatory bullshit. Our economic weapon has totally failed. Russia has shrugged it off—everyone can see that, and they're all paying attention. /15

Not only has our economic weapon revealed to be a paper tiger, our diplomatic clout has been revealed to be less impressive than assumed before 2/24. India demonstrated our impotence—as @70sBachchan and I warned it would policytensor.substack.com/p/the-geometry…. /16

And in terms of pure military prestige, beyond the Western media echo-chamber, what do you think third parties are making of the war in Ukraine. Russia has managed to hold the line against the combined might of the West. This cannot fail to hurt us. /17

The limits of our power revealed in Ukraine, combined with our strategic autism, cannot fail to harm our world position. And indeed, our world position in unraveling in front of our eyes. /18

Japan is buying Russian oil above our harebrained price cap. India has made out like bandits. The Saudis have invited China into the gulf and the levant. Brazil has agreed to trade with China in the renminbi. And so on. How the fuck do you think this looks to third parties? /19

Not only is our present policy actively undermining our world position, we're running the considerable risk that China can come in any time and deal us a comprehensive defeat in Ukraine. /20

Third parties won't blame China if they do that, since we're the ones insisting on wrecking our relations with China — everyone can see that and they're watching the Biden escalation with considerable alarm. /21

It is in our interest to wrap up the good little war in Ukraine on tolerable terms as soon as possible. At the very least, the US cannot long shoulder the burden without doing great harm to our world position. /22

There is some logic to "Europeanizing the war." If the Europeans want to arm and fund the Ukrainian war effort, they should do that. We must leave bc we have much bigger fish to fry. And we must do so as soon as logistically possible. /fin