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Apr 5 18 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1/ Security cameras along the route taken by the suspect in the killing of the blogger Vladlen Tatarsky were reportedly not working on the day of the bombing, creating a 'dead zone' where she could have met someone. This has raised further suspicions over who was responsible.
2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports: "Some of the cameras on the path of Daria Trepova appeared to be switched off between 08.00 and 18.40. At the same time, she may have been meeting someone in the 'dead zone'.
3/ Sources described the cafe where Vladlen Tatarsky, a war correspondent, was killed in an explosion as a place "long forgotten about". All local employees know that the establishment is "Prigozhin's" and any events there have always been avoided.
4/ After the explosion operatives from St Petersburg's "homicide squad" were at work at the scene.
5/ Very soon they managed to get on the trail of the donor of the bust (at that time only her pseudonym was known - Nastya) and the staff of the "bespoke" ORC (homicide squad specialising in contract murders) set about analysing the CCTV.
6/ They found out the details that they had subsequently decided to keep to the utmost secrecy.

According to the VChK-OGPU, operatives to this day have only one complete piece of video footage from cameras on Vasilevsky Island.
7/ Namely, a camera on house number 10 on the 5th Liniya Street recorded Daria at 5:12 p. m. with a box in her hands coming out of an arch on the territory of the Russian Academy of Arts (where studios, drawing classes, a dormitory of the RAA and flats,…
8/ one of which Trepova rented). The girl confidently walked to the cafe "Street Food Bar №1", but somehow she passed the entrance and turned onto the next street, where she was in a blind spot for about two minutes.
9/ Police officers purposely followed her route, but that particular location doesn't even have private cameras.
10/ According to our information, because of the high traffic, the operatives did not even begin to make a list of cars and people that Daria could theoretically have crossed paths with there. Further chronology to her exit from the establishment is known.
11/ Trepova barely made it a couple of dozen metres, she was stunned and dazed. The video shows Daria stopping and making a phone call, and after the conversation she ran as fast as she could.
12/ At 6.17 p.m., she ran back into the same archway at 1-3, 4th St., where she was renting a flat. There is no video recording of when and how Trepova got there, what was going on in the yard where she "disappeared", and, most importantly, how she left.
13/ Even a technician specially hooked up by the operatives was unable to access the archive from the CCTV cameras (there are enough of them and they "shoot" through the whole area, including the exits to the high streets).
14/ According to the specialist, cameras on the grounds of the RAA were out of order on April 2 from 08.00 to 18.40, during which time there were no recordings in the archive.
15/ During that time there were cars and people entering the area, which also made it possible for Daria to leave the flat in an unknown manner. It is unlikely that the breakdown was an accident.
16/ And it is even less likely that the cameras could have been switched off from Ukraine."
17/ It's worth noting that inoperative security cameras were also an issue in the assassination last August of Darya Dugina, though it's not clear if this apparent similarity is a coincidence or not. /end

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Apr 5
1/ The Wagner Group has taken to posting recruitment flyers in Russian mailboxes in its latest recruitment campaign to find new mercenaries. It's previously advertised in a variety of public forums, including on public transport, billboards and even porn websites. ⬇️
2/ The Sirena Telegram channel reports that many residents of the town of Ukhta in the Komi Republic have found Wagner flyers in their mailboxes. The flyers state that "men from 21 to 60 years old are invited to join the private military company."
3/ "Instead of requirements for the candidate, the leaflet says that men do not need to have military experience, they are provided with life and health insurance, training and equipment, ...
Read 4 tweets
Apr 5
1/ Bribes to escape conscription into the Russian armed forces are reported to have have almost doubled in cost since the start of the war in Ukraine. Muscovites have to pay the most – $7,000 to evade conscription and $19,000 to escape mobilisation. ⬇️
2/ The Baza Telegram channel reports: "Before the special operation young people could pay 200-250 thousand rubles [around $3,500] and go through the "right" doctors to get non-conscription diagnoses, and then use them to issue military ID card category B.
3/ Now, as "Baza" was told by intermediaries who help to obtain "exemption" from the army, the prices for such services have soared to 400,000-550,000 rubles. This is due to more frequent inspections of draftees and increased control in hospitals.
Read 10 tweets
Apr 5
1/ The Russian government is still trying to work out who is to blame for putting hundreds of newly mobilised troops in harm's way in Makiivka, where many of them were killed on a Ukrainian HIMARS strike on New Year's Day.
2/ According to the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, Putin's statement in January that "the whole country is worried" by the circumstances of the attack is belied by the slow pace of the official Russian investigation, on which "the brakes have been pumped".
3/ This is reported to have created "the appearance of a trial through many interrogations of third-rate persons guilty of poor-quality briefings with personnel."
Read 8 tweets
Mar 31
1/ CONQUERING CRIMEA: PART 3

This is the third in a short series of threads exploring the military history of Crimea, which may soon become a battlefield again as Ukraine seeks to recapture it. Image
2/ In this part, I'll be looking at the Ukrainian conquest of Crimea in 1918 and the Red Army's reconquest in 1920.

For the first part, on Crimea's military geography, see here:
3/ For the second part, on invasions of Crimea from 1675 to 1771, see here:
Read 37 tweets
Mar 29
1/ CONQUERING CRIMEA: PART 2

In this short series of threads, I'll look at the military history of Crimea to find lessons about the challenges that Ukraine will face if it wants to recover the peninsula by force. The first part is here:
2/ What is Crimea's value? Until the mid-20th century, agriculture was marginal due to lack of water. Crimea lacks on-shore natural resources. Tourism only really took off after the Second World War, while industry still only accounts for a small percentage of Crimea's economy.
3/ Crimea's main value has always been its geographical position. This allows it to be used as a location for projecting power into the Black Sea and the nearby lands. Control over Crimea enables control of the northern Black Sea from ports on the southern Crimean coast. Image
Read 35 tweets
Mar 27
1/ CONQUERING CRIMEA: PART 1

Since 2014, Crimea has been under Russian control. Ukraine, naturally, wants it back. But what does history show about the challenges of reconquering it? In a series of threads, I'll look at the lessons of past wars. Image
2/ Crimea's fascinating military history has been of interest to me for many years – I travelled there in the early 2000s to study its old battlefields, so some of this will be drawn from personal recollections and notes.
3/ Let's review Crimea's physical geography. It's a roughly diamond-shaped peninsula, about 320 km (200 mi) east to west by about 200 km (120 mi) north to south. It's mostly flat, apart from the Crimean (or Yayla) Mountains in the far south, which are up to 1,500m (5000 ft) high. Image
Read 23 tweets

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