The Texas Triangle , between Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio, contains 75% of Texans.
Why?
What's special about that triangle?
A map of night lights shows that ppl are concentrated in its tips and edge:
• One of its tips is the massive Houston
• Another tip is an uncommon type of city: the couple Dallas–Fort Worth
• Then there's a line of cities between Dallas and San Antonio w/ Austin, Waco...
Why?
What can the satellite tell us?
If you look carefully, you can see a green and grey line running from San Antonio to Dallas. What is it?
The topography can give is a clue: the mountains drop in altitude on a line from San Antonio to Dallas! This fall line transforms the mountains into hills that can be crossed
Sure enough, many of the most important Texan cities are on the fall line of the Edwards Plateau. These form the grey line on the satellite picture.
But why did these cities emerge at these points on that line, and not others?
They're each at the crossing between that fall line and a river:
• San Antonio: San Antonio River
• Austin: Colorado River
• Waco: Brazos River
• Fort Worth and Dallas: Trinity River
This is the same as on the Atlantic Seaboard
And like on the Atlantic Seaboard, there's a road connecting all these Texan cities: the interstate 35.
The enduring value of this route is revealed in its ancient origins, as this very path is probably the same as the ancient Chisholm Cattle Trail
We'll get back to it
The pbm with these rivers is that they're not very navigable. They did bring water and irrigation to their cities—hence why they appeared there—but their transportation utility was limited. Which is why Texas pushed hard to develop its railroads.
The end of the 19th century saw both a huge construction of railroads and the discovery of oil. Both of these finally started the growth of the Texan population
So that's why one edge of the Texas Triangle is so populated. But why is the other tip in Houston? Why not anywhere else on the coast? There are plenty of other successful ports in Texas, even to this day
Normally, you just have one big port per region, because there's benefits in having all the goods go to the same hub.
And natural bays tend to be the place where they emerge, protected from the ocean. But there are several bays in Texas. Why did Houston's bay win?
It didn't
In the 1800s, Houston was not the biggest port in Texas. It was Galveston, established by the Mexicans in 1825
Galveston grew because of its position:
• Great bay
• Close to N Orleans
• As close as possible to the other main TX cities: San Antonio, Dallas, Austin..
And then in 1900, Galveston learned a lesson that other regions had learned through centuries of storms: Galveston was too close to the sea.
It suffered a hurricane that devastated it. The port and industries moved as inland as they could.
That was Houston.
Houston was at the confluence of two navigable bayous, had invested in improving their navigability, and had received one of the earliest railroads on their way to Galveston. It had all the infra it needed and was close to Galveston. Perfect heir.
Hard for other ports to compete
So that's why 75% of Texans live in the Triangle: 1. End of the Edwards Plateau
➡️easier transportation
➡️rivers form
➡️great spot for cities, which follow the fall line: San Antonio, Austin, Waco, Killeen, Fort Worth, Dallas
2. Houston, heir to well-located Galveston
I write threads like this once a week. Here, on California. Follow for more
I'll write soon about why New York is the biggest city on the Atlantic coast.
Some of you mention rainfall. True: there's more rain east of the line—because altitude is lower! We can see the line in the precipitation maps of spring: a rain line passes through the fall line (left)
But it disappears during late summer rainfall times (right)
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
I respect @BillAckman a lot but I think he's wrong on @Uber. AFAIK his bear case on robotaxis: 1. Not great for bad weather 2. Too expensive to cover peak demand 3. Less utilization because of food delivery 4. They can't disintermediate Uber
1. Not great for bad weather
This is a @Waymo driving in rain—the worst they'll ever be! They already have ~10x fewer accidents than humans. Maybe in the short term humans are going to be better in some really bad weather, but those are short-term exceptions
2. Robotaxis will be too expensive to cover peak demand
This is ptrobably true for Waymo but not @Tesla's @robotaxi, for 2 reasons:
a. Cybercab costs will be the same order of magnitude as normal ICE cars
The Model 3 costs ~$40-$45k, but the Cybercab will have 60% fewer parts: steering wheel, pedals, steering column, backseats, backdoors, side-window mirrors, rear window... Let's assume this will bring the cost down to $30-$35k
Add to that the new manufacturing process that treats Tesla's Cybercabs not as cars, but as electronics. They will be able to produce a car every 5s. This will further reduce their price
Compare that to the price of a car for Uber, which today is between $25k-$60k
Never bet against the US:
Ppl think its biggest strength is its institutions, the dollar, entrepreneurship... But one of its biggest assets is its geography 🧵
1. Size
The US is the 4th largest country. It spans an entire continent, reaches two oceans, and is big enough to be a geographic heavyweight in the world
2. The Mississippi Basin
It's the 4th largest drainage basin in the world and occupies 40% of the contiguous 48 US states, touching 32 of the US’s 50 states. 11 US states directly take their name from it.
Climate caused the US Civil War, because: 1. Slavery was the main cause of the war 2. Different crops were the main cause of slavery 3. Climate caused different crops in the North vs South
This is terribly important to understand the US today and how to heal it
🧵
1. Slavery was the main cause of the war: the Abolitionist North & the Slavery South were competing to expand westward to increase their political influence
But the North grew & expanded faster, to a point where it could force abolition on the South, which then seceded
In 1790, the Free & Slave states had the same population, and there were many more Slave States (8 vs 5), so Slave States controlled the Senate.
By the eve of the war in 1860, the North had 50% more population and 4 more states, giving them control of both the House & Senate
Moscow is one of the weirdest capitals:
• Biggest European city
• Extremely cold
• Little farmland
• To Russia's extreme west
• Not on a coast or main river
How did it create the biggest country on Earth?
It involves horse archers, human harvesting & tiny animals 🧵
The first shocking fact is that Russia is so far north it's at the edge of arable land. How can you create a capital with so little food? Why not in the middle of the most fertile area on Earth?
This far north is extremely cold
Moscow is the 3rd coldest capital in the world and by far the biggest: with 20M ppl, its metro population is 8x bigger than the 2nd biggest cold capital, Stockholm!
This map tells you how a seemingly innocent difference, like wheat vs rice eating, can have dramatic political, economic, and cultural ramifications:
🧵
The areas that harvest wheat vs rice are different. Why?
Because of climate
Rice needs heat and lots of water. Ideally, flooding the fields to also kill weeds. Rice dies with frost.
Wheat resists it well, prefers cooler temperatures, but dies when it's flooded
Did you know the West's trade deficits to China are not recent, but started 2000 years ago? This is the story of how silk, porcelain, tea, opium, and silver have determined the history of the world 🧵
The Romans already complained about deficits to China! Mainly because of silk
Back then the Chinese already preferred manufacturing and selling products than consuming foreign products. Chronicler Solinus ~200 AD: The Chinese "prefer only to sell their products, but do not like to buy our goods."