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Ian Ellis Profile picture
@ianellisjones
Apr 11, 2023 • 19 tweets • 10 min read • Read on X
Tracking @USNavy Assets in the Pacific April 3-10 🇺🇸

- Nimitz CSG transits to the Eastern Coast of Taiwan from South Korea
- Makin ARG to Western Philippines from Busan, S. Korea
- Carl Vinson CSG moves to Eastern Pacific from San Diego
- USS Milius passes Mischief Reef in FoN Image
The USS Nimitz (CVN-68) Carrier Strike Group is underway in the Philippine Sea, reportedly operating East of Taiwan, after completing a large anti-submarine warfare exercise with the South Korean & Japanese navies on April 4.
The Makin Island (LHD-8) Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) is now operating in the South China Sea, ~West of Manila. It transited over the past week from Busan, South Korea, for planned exercises with the Philippines navy.
The USS Milius (DDG-69), a guided-missile destroyer, passed within 12 nautical miles of China’s Mischief Reef artificial island installation & military infrastructure, which lies in the Philippines’ Economic Zone (and also claimed by Vietnam & Taiwan).
The USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) Carrier Strike Group is underway in the Eastern Pacific, conducting drills in preparation for an upcoming deployment. One week ago, it was operating outside Naval Base San Diego.

The CSG completed its ratings & will join 7th Fleet operations as CSG1. ImageImage
According to open source intelligence, the US Navy was operating at least two P-8 “Poseidon” Maritime Patrol & Anti-Submarine Aircraft and one USAF RC-135V “Rivet Joint” Signal Intelligence Platform off the Southern and Eastern coasts of Taiwan.
A US Marine Corps Cessna UC-35, used for the “Time Sensitive Shipment” of Personnel & Cargo left Okinawa, Japan headed Southwest towards the Philippines.

“From April 11-28, 17K members of the Philippines and US military will participate in an annual bilateral exercise.”
The PLAN’s CNS Shandong (17) Carrier Strike Group transited the Bashi Channel & has been operating off of Taiwan’s East coast.

The Nimitz CSG is also nearby in the vicinity of Taiwan. Two defense officials told USNI there have been no reported unsafe interactions. Image
The USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) CSG, the only forward deployed aircraft carrier group, remains in port in Yokosuka, Japan.

The USS America (LHA-6) Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) is in Sasebo, Japan.
The map below shows PLAN activity as part of the Eastern Theatre Command’s “Joint Sword” drills from April 8-10.

As of Monday, there were 12 PLAN warships and more than 90 aircraft operating in the vicinity of Taiwan, according to officials in Taipei.
The Makin Island ARG—with the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked—is operating in the SCS ahead of this week’s Balikatan exercise.

17K personnel will train together for maritime security, amphibious operations, live-fire training, & more—a marked expansion from 9K in 2022. Image
FYI–Thread tracking movement of USN assets during PLAN drills: @Jkylebass @sentdefender @DefenseBulletin @WarintheFuture @tshugart3 @RealCynicalFox @anderscorr @heldavidson @ForkFliedLice @HelloMrBond @MarioNawfal @pete_gb @codeofvets @ElbridgeColby @CovertShores @VonClownsewitz
The Nimitz CSG is conducting multi-domain and integrated operations in the Philippine Sea as of April 11.

“We’re here not only to reassure our allies and partners of our unwavering commitment to the rules-based international order, but to work alongside them with a shared… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Map showing encounters between ships in Taiwan’s contiguous zone on April 10 (unconfirmed):
PLAN ships that participated in the exercises (unconfirmed):
As of April 11, satellite imagery shows the CNS Shandong aircraft carrier operating within 200 nautical miles of Taiwan’s east coast.
As of April 14, the Nimitz aircraft carrier continues routine operations in the Philippine Sea.
As of April 13, the USS Milius was underway in the South China Sea.

On April 10, the Milius asserted navigational rights and freedoms in the SCS near the Spratly Islands & Mischief Reef (where China has established artificial military infrastructure).
On Monday April 16, the US Navy sent the USS Milius destroyer through the Taiwan Strait.

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More from @ianellisjones

Ian Ellis Profile picture
Apr 26
China has the world’s largest Navy—& soon to be the world’s largest Air Force, U.S. Navy Adm Aquilino told Congress.

“The magnitude, scope, & scale of this security challenge cannot be understated.”

Today, the U.S. Air Force is the smallest it’s ever been, writes @defense_news:
Image
Image
USAF “expects its fleet of fighters, bombers, tankers, cargo planes, drones, etc. to dip below 5,000 in FY2025, as retirements of older & outdated airframes outpace procurement of their replacements. The fleet could drop to 4,900 next year—but it may yet fall further.”
“Right now, the Air Force is as big as it will be,” USAF Maj. Gen. Dave Tabor said in a March interview.

“In light of the budget uncertainties, it’s really difficult to predict exactly what size [the fleet] will be, next year or five years from now.”
Read 11 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Apr 24
“Xi’s most critical choices reflect a march to war,” writes RADM (ret) Studeman.

“He may conclude he has everything to gain & nothing to lose by waiting. Xi’s absolute prioritization of security over the economy is the most telling of all war preparation indicators.” Must-read👇 Image
“A storm from Beijing is heading to Taiwan...

Although hopes were high that the Russo-Ukrainian War might deter Xi from folly over Taiwan, nothing in his behavior, speech, or actions so far suggests he is learning anything other than how to better prepare to subjugate Taiwan.”
“Xi is militarizing Chinese society and steeling his country for a potential high-intensity war. China’s trajectory signals deepening danger and a hardening of Xi’s intent to execute an act of aggression similar to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.” Image
Read 16 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Apr 22
TikTok is a “tool to exploit all of the things that are keeping us busy as a country right now—racial divide, political divide.

They’re exploiting every freedom that we enjoy as a democracy. It’s ingenious. It’s brilliant. It needs to be banned.”

Eye-opening @IndoPacPodcast 🧵
Retired Lt. Gen. Lori Reynolds, former Commander of Marine Cyber Force to @GordianKnotRay:

“This idea that it’s a violation of free speech is exactly the conversation they want us to have around TikTok. It feeds right into their strategy. So we just have to be smarter than them.”
“It’s just a masterful tool. The reality has changed—and we can't, and should not, allow them to continue to exploit our freedoms like this.”
Read 7 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Apr 20
What scares a retired Lt. General & Commander of Marine Cyber Force?

- China’s embedded “into as much of America’s critical infrastructure” as possible
- New, persistent approach to maintain access
- Significant operational capabilities
- Waiting for the opportune time

Quick 🧵
“The wake up call on this one is that we see now China is shifting from this intellectual property grab to a more persistent approach. Meaning embed yourself into as much of America's critical infrastructure as you can. And by critical infrastructure, we're talking water, energy, power, telecommunications.

Embed yourself. Keep checking to make sure that the accesses that you stole are still good. So you might see some repeat kind of visits to some of these infrastructures. And that signals to us that they are waiting to use these capabilities and these cyber accesses at a more opportune time.

Maybe as they are thinking about making a move on Taiwan. Maybe when the U.S. wants to do something in support of Israel. So it becomes more of an operational capability for them—if they're successful in maintaining these kind of clandestine accesses.

🚨 And that's what's changed. And that's what should scare us a little bit.”
Retired Lieutenant General Lori Reynolds, former U.S. Marine Corps Deputy Commandant for Information, joined @GordianKnotRay on @IndoPacPodcast for an eye-opening conversation on China’s cyber aggression.

Full episode 👇
Read 5 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Apr 20
As the dust settles, here’s what we know about Israel’s strike on Iran 🧵

- Launched drones & fired missiles from fighter aircraft outside of Iran
- Targeted a military base & radar site near Isfahan
- “Hit what they intended to strike”
- No U.S. involvement

New map & report: Image
Israel launched a retaliatory strike against Iran early Friday morning local time, in what’s being characterized as a “limited response,” targeting a military air base near Isfahan.

The aerial attack involved drones & firing missiles from fighter aircraft (outside of Iran). Image
The Israeli strike followed Iran’s attack on Saturday, when it fired 331 drones & missiles toward Israel.

“That attack brought the decades-long shadow war between Israel & Iran — waged on land, at sea, in air & in cyberspace — more clearly into the open.” (NYT)
Read 13 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Apr 10
New from @Noahpinion—Asia is a tinderbox

“WW3 will actually begin if & when the U.S. & China go to war. Almost everyone thinks this would happen if & when China attacks Taiwan, but in fact there are several other flashpoints that are just as scary & which many people seem to be overlooking.” 🧵Image
Definitely worth the read. Here are a few excerpts:

“So even as Europe and China become more deeply enmeshed in a proxy war, there are multiple flashpoints in Asia that could blossom into World War 3 any day now. Asia is an absolute tinderbox right now.”
“Being the guy who’s always shouting about impending disaster is frustrating, thankless work. If nobody listens to you, and the disaster happens, you’re a useless Cassandra. If nobody listens to you and the disaster luckily doesn’t happen, you’re viewed as a fool. If people do listen to you and they take action to successfully avert the disaster, a lot of people will still say that your warning was wrong and the precautions were unnecessary. The only way you’ll ever come out looking smart is if the disaster does happen, and people heed your warning in time to mitigate its impact. At that point, you’re Gandalf. But the problem with being Gandalf is that it involves a disaster actually happening, so it’s not exactly something you should hope for.” @Noahpinion
Read 10 tweets

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