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Ian Ellis Profile picture
@ianellisjones
Apr 11, 2023 • 19 tweets • 10 min read • Read on X
Tracking @USNavy Assets in the Pacific April 3-10 🇺🇸

- Nimitz CSG transits to the Eastern Coast of Taiwan from South Korea
- Makin ARG to Western Philippines from Busan, S. Korea
- Carl Vinson CSG moves to Eastern Pacific from San Diego
- USS Milius passes Mischief Reef in FoN Image
The USS Nimitz (CVN-68) Carrier Strike Group is underway in the Philippine Sea, reportedly operating East of Taiwan, after completing a large anti-submarine warfare exercise with the South Korean & Japanese navies on April 4.
The Makin Island (LHD-8) Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) is now operating in the South China Sea, ~West of Manila. It transited over the past week from Busan, South Korea, for planned exercises with the Philippines navy.
The USS Milius (DDG-69), a guided-missile destroyer, passed within 12 nautical miles of China’s Mischief Reef artificial island installation & military infrastructure, which lies in the Philippines’ Economic Zone (and also claimed by Vietnam & Taiwan).
The USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) Carrier Strike Group is underway in the Eastern Pacific, conducting drills in preparation for an upcoming deployment. One week ago, it was operating outside Naval Base San Diego.

The CSG completed its ratings & will join 7th Fleet operations as CSG1. ImageImage
According to open source intelligence, the US Navy was operating at least two P-8 “Poseidon” Maritime Patrol & Anti-Submarine Aircraft and one USAF RC-135V “Rivet Joint” Signal Intelligence Platform off the Southern and Eastern coasts of Taiwan.
A US Marine Corps Cessna UC-35, used for the “Time Sensitive Shipment” of Personnel & Cargo left Okinawa, Japan headed Southwest towards the Philippines.

“From April 11-28, 17K members of the Philippines and US military will participate in an annual bilateral exercise.”
The PLAN’s CNS Shandong (17) Carrier Strike Group transited the Bashi Channel & has been operating off of Taiwan’s East coast.

The Nimitz CSG is also nearby in the vicinity of Taiwan. Two defense officials told USNI there have been no reported unsafe interactions. Image
The USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) CSG, the only forward deployed aircraft carrier group, remains in port in Yokosuka, Japan.

The USS America (LHA-6) Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) is in Sasebo, Japan.
The map below shows PLAN activity as part of the Eastern Theatre Command’s “Joint Sword” drills from April 8-10.

As of Monday, there were 12 PLAN warships and more than 90 aircraft operating in the vicinity of Taiwan, according to officials in Taipei.
The Makin Island ARG—with the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked—is operating in the SCS ahead of this week’s Balikatan exercise.

17K personnel will train together for maritime security, amphibious operations, live-fire training, & more—a marked expansion from 9K in 2022. Image
FYI–Thread tracking movement of USN assets during PLAN drills: @Jkylebass @sentdefender @DefenseBulletin @WarintheFuture @tshugart3 @RealCynicalFox @anderscorr @heldavidson @ForkFliedLice @HelloMrBond @MarioNawfal @pete_gb @codeofvets @ElbridgeColby @CovertShores @VonClownsewitz
The Nimitz CSG is conducting multi-domain and integrated operations in the Philippine Sea as of April 11.

“We’re here not only to reassure our allies and partners of our unwavering commitment to the rules-based international order, but to work alongside them with a shared… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Map showing encounters between ships in Taiwan’s contiguous zone on April 10 (unconfirmed):
PLAN ships that participated in the exercises (unconfirmed):
As of April 11, satellite imagery shows the CNS Shandong aircraft carrier operating within 200 nautical miles of Taiwan’s east coast.
As of April 14, the Nimitz aircraft carrier continues routine operations in the Philippine Sea.
As of April 13, the USS Milius was underway in the South China Sea.

On April 10, the Milius asserted navigational rights and freedoms in the SCS near the Spratly Islands & Mischief Reef (where China has established artificial military infrastructure).
On Monday April 16, the US Navy sent the USS Milius destroyer through the Taiwan Strait.

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More from @ianellisjones

Ian Ellis Profile picture
Jan 20
“The pace of modernization that the PLA is going through is unprecedented. It’s far outpacing what we are doing...

We are the smallest and oldest that we’ve ever been. The Chinese, the PLA, is the largest and most modern that it has ever been.”

—USAF Brig. Gen. Douglas Wickert
“That is risk. That is uncertainty. And that’s why what we are doing here at Edwards Air Force Base is extremely important.”

Fascinating perspective on China from the Commander of the 412th Test Wing, which plans and conducts all flight and ground testing of next-gen aircraft.
This is the first time I’ve seen a senior U.S. military official publicly address the two new advanced airframes that China recently leaked online (what some are calling the J-36 & J-50).
Read 6 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Jan 18
U.S. Navy force posture ahead of the presidential transition of power 🇺🇸

8 of America’s 11 aircraft carriers are active or working up, and 3 are currently deployed: Truman in the Middle East (5th Fleet), Vinson + Washington in the Indo-Pacific (7th Fleet) Image
Last update:
Carrier USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75), cruiser USS Gettysburg (CG-64), and elements of Destroyer Squadron (DESRON) 28 are operating in the Red Sea. Image
Image
Image
Read 8 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Jan 11
To counter China’s anti-access, area-denial approach to keep the U.S. out of the Pacific in a crisis, Dep. SECDEF says: “we’re changing the game,” and in “classified war games these approaches are paying off.”

“We’ve focused on developing and fielding innovative operational concepts and force designs for how we use our capabilities, showing that we can continually shape and master the changing character of warfare.

From the 1990s on, the PRC carefully crafted its elaborate military modernization to counter two longstanding U.S. approaches to power projection.

One was aircraft carriers, as deployed during the 1996 Third Taiwan Strait Crisis. The other was our multi-month, time-phased force deployments that moved America’s military might from the continental U.S. into theater before an operation — like Desert Shield before Desert Storm and subsequent regional build-ups preceding later wars in Iraq and Afghanistan...

While there is much more work to do, it’s already manifesting in aspects that are quite different from the military that the PLA built itself to beat.”

More info below. Source: DOD, 10 Jan
Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks spoke about “four lessons” she views as critical for prevailing in the U.S. strategic competition with China during a keynote address today at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
Key considerations: Image
Read 7 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Jan 11
Outgoing U.S. Dep. Secretary of Defense:

“We want the PRC leadership to wake up each day, consider the risks of aggression, and think to themselves, ‘today is not the day’ — and for them to think that today, and every day, between now and 2027, in 2035, 2049, and beyond.”
"Outpacing the PRC: Lessons Learned for Strategic Competition"
Full quote: Image
Read 5 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Jan 9
Top conflicts to watch in 2025: @CFR_org

“The possibility that the U.S. could find itself in wars with not one but two major, nuclear-armed powers simultaneously is very real. The stakes today... cannot be overstated.”

680 experts prioritized 30 global hot spots (thread) Image
“The level of armed conflict around the world has steadily grown in recent years, which in turn has increased the risk of costly U.S. military intervention. This is particularly the case in the Middle East, which continues to be wracked by deadly violence across multiple countries. This violence has clear potential to intensify and spread. The horrific war in Ukraine that by some estimates has already claimed a million casualties also shows no sign of abating. This conflict could likewise escalate in ways that threaten vital U.S. interests and necessitate much deeper and more costly involvement. While the situation in the Indo-Pacific region is comparatively peaceful, numerous flashpoints exist, not least across the Taiwan Strait and in the South China Sea, that could suddenly ignite and rapidly draw in the U.S.”
“There have never been so many contingencies rated as high likelihood/high impact events (five) since the PPS began in 2008. Put differently, the level of anxiety that survey respondents feel about the risk of violent conflict over the coming twelve months has never been greater. Of the thirty contingencies surveyed, twenty-eight are judged to be either highly or moderately likely to occur in the next twelve months. Eighteen of those, moreover, would have a high or moderate impact on U.S. interests.”Image
Read 7 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Jan 6
Since the U.S. election, China:

- Hacked the U.S. Treasury Department
- Conducted largest naval drills in decades
- Deployed ships in strength to the South China Sea
- Launched the world’s biggest amphibious warship
- Accused of sabotaging undersea cables in Asia & Europe
- Imposed crippling export controls & sanctions on U.S. firms
- Unveiled new advanced aircraft (J-35, J-36, J-15T/D, KJ-3000)
- Practiced a naval blockade near Japanese islands for the first time
- Continues to execute the “worst telecom hack in U.S. history,” which compromised DJT & JDV devices

Beijing sending a message to the incoming admin. More info & sources below.
cc @marcorubio @michaelgwaltz @PeteHegseth @ElbridgeColby
Also ongoing…
Read 12 tweets

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