Crémieux Profile picture
Apr 11, 2023 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
As pit bulls have become more common, their representation in dog fatalities has grown, as have the per capita rates of dog fatalities and injuries. Chart showing the proportio...
In 1979-1998, pit bulls were a quarter as common as now, but they were still responsible for a large % of deaths. The premiere "aggressive dog" at the time was the Rottweiler, and despite its reputation, bad owners, and far greater numbers, it didn't kill as many as the pit bull. Image
And this isn't due to mix-ups. We used to have data separating purebred pit bulls from crossbred ones.

Crossbred pit bulls are fortunately now more common, but they used to be the less common variety. It's fortunate because the mixing means less violence per dog. Image
More recently, in the deadliest states with respect to dog attacks, it's clear that pit bulls are to blame for most dog fatalities. Image
A major part of why pit bulls are such outliers is that, where we have data, it appears they kill people at a wider - older - range of ages.

52% of all dog fatalities are of people ≥10 while 72% of pit bull fatalities are, versus 28% for the ~94% from all other breeds combined Image
Despite aggressive dogs and bad owners being a thing forever, the switch from Rottweilers and the like to the pit bull has been destructive for this reason

Dog fatalities used to be a problem for children alone, but due to pit bulls they are now largely a problem for people ≥10 Image
Pit bulls are not deadly because they're strong. Many breeds are stronger. They are deadly for the reason fighters want them: tenacity.

"Pit Bull" here is a mix, but the broader label applies to the APBT, American Staffordshire Terrier, and the Staffordshire Bull Terrier. Image
This is something that's difficult for police to get dogs to adopt through the rigorous training they're subjected to. Most fail! Because it's been bred into pit bulls, it's much more reliably observed in that breed.

Other BSL'd breeds are also often extremely tenacious.
Here's a previous post with the relative risks of fatalities by breed.

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Dec 22
"Without Mohammed, Charlemagne would have been inconceivable."

This quote describes Pirenne's thesis that Antiquity—the period when economic activity concentrated in the Mediterranean—ended because the rise of Islam destroyed the flow of trade across it. Image
The decline in trade that resulted from differences in faith had profound consequences for the economic geography of Europe.

Byzantine economic activity depended on trade, and it collapsed, whereas the Frankish economy, which was never trade-dependent, transformed.
The Byzantines' minting stalled and the Arabs' and Franks' increased (perhaps partly because they were cut off from one another!), providing each of their states with divergent trends in seignorage revenues and a widening gulf in the ability to fund the government.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 22
Robustness tests are supposed to show a study's results hold up no matter how you reasonably change the specification

But we live in a world with p-hacking, and people p-hack robustness tests

Compared to unshown robustness tests (blue), what we get is suspiciously significant! Image
This is the distribution of z-values for different tests in economics papers, coupled with the robustness tests their authors presented, and other, plausible robustness tests they didn't.

Clearly people p-hack, and they p-hack tests that are supposed to make us think they didn't
It's sad this is the case. Were it not, it might be useful to get a surprising, marginally-significant result, and then show that it holds up across different permutations of the results

But because the robustness tests shown are selective, their potential utility is unrealized
Read 6 tweets
Dec 20
Psychotic people follow scripts.

Let's talk about the glass delusion, the Middle Ages' bout with a mass psychogenic illness marked by people believing they were made of glass. Image
Glass was a valuable commodity in Europe. It was primarily owned by the noble and well-to-do, and it had a notable purpose in alchemy.

Its perception as the technology of the time was as one that's both fragile and valuable, like the nobility. Image
Glass was the relatively novel technology people knew, and they knew things could be transmuted into glass. Delusional people also thought transmutation could affect them.

Take King Charles VI.

He truly believed his body was made of glass. Image
Read 17 tweets
Dec 19
And here we have it: Daily homicide data!🧵

The massive increase in homicides in the last week of May of 2020 started in the days after George Floyd's death.Image
The Floyd Effect principally refers to the impact of George Floyd's death on homicide numbers in the U.S. through diverse mechanisms, such as reduced cooperation with police, reduced police activity, presence, and willingness to confront potential criminals, and maybe more.
The effect primarily occurred due to an increase in firearm violence that was largely isolated to African Americans. The effect is timed to the

- Year
- Month
- Week
- Day

of George Floyd's death.
Read 24 tweets
Dec 18
College students make or are forced to make suboptimal choices about the times their classes take place🧵

For students who register for 8AM classes, about a third wake up after class starts, and almost 40% wake up too late to get to class on time. Image
People's internal rhythms aren't things they just choose, they're somewhat out of their control because they're synced up with day-night cycles.

Consider this, showing the amount of time 8AM class-takers sleep on school days vs weekends (gray), measured through logins at school. Image
If you compare those 8AM class-takers to 9AM students, you see that the ones who registered for 9AM classes sleep longer, but both sleep similar lengths on weekends. Image
Read 16 tweets
Dec 16
If you're curious about the recent rise in autism diagnoses, go read this.

It details how much of the rise in diagnoses is down to diagnostic drift and increasing screening. Image
You can see the impact of this on correlations between autism and other things in the published literature:
A common retort is 'But [this] study used the same definition over time and found an increase'. That comment is usually just wrong.

What people see in those studies is almost always a combination of 1. screening more, and 2. screening less stringently even if they don't want to.
Read 5 tweets

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