Crémieux Profile picture
Apr 11, 2023 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
As pit bulls have become more common, their representation in dog fatalities has grown, as have the per capita rates of dog fatalities and injuries. Chart showing the proportio...
In 1979-1998, pit bulls were a quarter as common as now, but they were still responsible for a large % of deaths. The premiere "aggressive dog" at the time was the Rottweiler, and despite its reputation, bad owners, and far greater numbers, it didn't kill as many as the pit bull. Image
And this isn't due to mix-ups. We used to have data separating purebred pit bulls from crossbred ones.

Crossbred pit bulls are fortunately now more common, but they used to be the less common variety. It's fortunate because the mixing means less violence per dog. Image
More recently, in the deadliest states with respect to dog attacks, it's clear that pit bulls are to blame for most dog fatalities. Image
A major part of why pit bulls are such outliers is that, where we have data, it appears they kill people at a wider - older - range of ages.

52% of all dog fatalities are of people ≥10 while 72% of pit bull fatalities are, versus 28% for the ~94% from all other breeds combined Image
Despite aggressive dogs and bad owners being a thing forever, the switch from Rottweilers and the like to the pit bull has been destructive for this reason

Dog fatalities used to be a problem for children alone, but due to pit bulls they are now largely a problem for people ≥10 Image
Pit bulls are not deadly because they're strong. Many breeds are stronger. They are deadly for the reason fighters want them: tenacity.

"Pit Bull" here is a mix, but the broader label applies to the APBT, American Staffordshire Terrier, and the Staffordshire Bull Terrier. Image
This is something that's difficult for police to get dogs to adopt through the rigorous training they're subjected to. Most fail! Because it's been bred into pit bulls, it's much more reliably observed in that breed.

Other BSL'd breeds are also often extremely tenacious.
Here's a previous post with the relative risks of fatalities by breed.

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Nov 17
The effects of charter schools on student test scores are meta-analytically estimated to be small.

In this study, the largest estimated effect was estimated to be equivalent to ~1.35 IQ points, for mathematics scores, which consistently showed larger effects than reading scores. Image
Similarly, the estimated effect of parents' preferred schools and of elite public secondary schools on test scores is around zero. Image
More interestingly, it seems charter school openings lead to competition that marginally boosts non-charter student performance and reduces absenteeism by very small degrees:
Read 12 tweets
Nov 12
Amazing!

The missing heritability issue between SNP heritability methods and traditional pedigree-based estimates has now shrunken to just 12%.

Thanks to large-scale whole-genome data and simultaneously estimated phenotypes, there's not much missing heritability left! Image
This analysis has several advantages compared to earlier ones.

The most obvious is the whole-genome data combined with a large sample size. All earlier whole-genome heritability estimates have been made using smaller samples, and thus had far greater uncertainty.
The next big thing is that the SNP and pedigree heritability estimates came from the same sample.

This can matter a lot.

If one sample has a heritability of 0.5 for a trait and another has a heritability of 0.4, it'd be a mistake to chalk the difference up to the method.
Read 16 tweets
Nov 12
This policy change has resulted in liberal experts coming out of the woodwork to allege that the policy is...

Intended to discriminate against Hispanics and Indians!

This one even alleged that this is discrimination on the basis of genetic race differences!Image
Trump deserves some praise for getting people to fess up to their hereditarian views on this matter.

Also, frankly, the policy is reasonable.

No fat people, no psychos, no sick people who will be burdens.

The only exception should be for those *paying for treatment here*. Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 8
Here are some choice Watson quotes to think about.

"I wouldn't have married a gum-chewing vegetarian." Image
Just being correct: Image
Left-wing nuts and environmental kooks are still noted screamers today. Image
Read 21 tweets
Nov 8
I'm going to humbly request that everyone stop dunking on John when he isn't even wrong.

Firstly, the reason for the hollowed out middle between -1.96 and 1.96 (p = 0.05) is not due to calculating CIs from abstracts instead of full-texts.

The original source showed that!Image
The original source for the Medline p-values explicitly compared the distributions in the abstracts and full-texts.

They found that there was a kink such that positive results had excess lower-bounds above 1 and negative results had excess upper-bounds below 1.Image
They then explicitly compared the distributional kinkiness from Medline to the distributions from an earlier paper that was similar to a specification curve analysis.

That meant comparing Medline to a result that was definitely not subject to p-hacking or publication bias. Image
Read 18 tweets
Nov 7
I got blocked for this meager bit of pushback on an obviously wrong idea lol.

Seriously:

Anyone claiming that von Neumann was tutored into being a genius is high on crack. He could recite the lines from any page of any book he ever read. That's not education!
'So, what's your theory on how von Neumann could tell you the exact weights and dimensions of objects without measuring tape or a scale?'

'Ah, it was the education that was provided to him, much like the education provided to his brothers and cousins.' Image
'How could his teachers have set him up to connect totally disparate fields in unique ways, especially given that every teacher who ever talked about him noted that he was much smarter than them and they found it hard to teach him?'

'Education, OK???' Image
Read 6 tweets

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