Crémieux Profile picture
Apr 11, 2023 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
As pit bulls have become more common, their representation in dog fatalities has grown, as have the per capita rates of dog fatalities and injuries. Chart showing the proportio...
In 1979-1998, pit bulls were a quarter as common as now, but they were still responsible for a large % of deaths. The premiere "aggressive dog" at the time was the Rottweiler, and despite its reputation, bad owners, and far greater numbers, it didn't kill as many as the pit bull. Image
And this isn't due to mix-ups. We used to have data separating purebred pit bulls from crossbred ones.

Crossbred pit bulls are fortunately now more common, but they used to be the less common variety. It's fortunate because the mixing means less violence per dog. Image
More recently, in the deadliest states with respect to dog attacks, it's clear that pit bulls are to blame for most dog fatalities. Image
A major part of why pit bulls are such outliers is that, where we have data, it appears they kill people at a wider - older - range of ages.

52% of all dog fatalities are of people ≥10 while 72% of pit bull fatalities are, versus 28% for the ~94% from all other breeds combined Image
Despite aggressive dogs and bad owners being a thing forever, the switch from Rottweilers and the like to the pit bull has been destructive for this reason

Dog fatalities used to be a problem for children alone, but due to pit bulls they are now largely a problem for people ≥10 Image
Pit bulls are not deadly because they're strong. Many breeds are stronger. They are deadly for the reason fighters want them: tenacity.

"Pit Bull" here is a mix, but the broader label applies to the APBT, American Staffordshire Terrier, and the Staffordshire Bull Terrier. Image
This is something that's difficult for police to get dogs to adopt through the rigorous training they're subjected to. Most fail! Because it's been bred into pit bulls, it's much more reliably observed in that breed.

Other BSL'd breeds are also often extremely tenacious.
Here's a previous post with the relative risks of fatalities by breed.

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Oct 22
The story of peanut allergy is entering its final chapter.

Nowadays, we are beating back both peanut and other food allergies, and all it took was telling parents the right thing to do🧵 Image
The story begins in 2000, when the American Academy of Pediatrics decided to issue some simple advice to parents: Have your kids avoid peanuts early in life. Don't expose them until they're at least three!Image
Parents complied. It turns out, they do that. They just follow advice from professional associations that appear to have authority.

So peanut allergy rates rose, from 0.4% in 1997 to 1.4% in 2008, to 2% in 2015.

But if the advice was right, the opposite should've happened!
Read 13 tweets
Oct 21
The CEOs managing Sweden's biggest companies tend to be smarter, taller, and to have better personalities. Image
The highest-paid CEOs in Sweden also tend to be taller, smarter, and to have better personalities. Image
To connect these things, CEO pay and firm size are considerably connected. Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 21
Individuals with higher genetically predicted intelligence tend to end up working more prestigious jobs. Image
They tend to be more emotionally stable, healthier, satisfied with life, richer, and educated too. Image
Additionally, they tend to be happier and to have fewer psychiatric problems.

They're more likely to be go-getters! Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 19
Boobtech is amazing.

It's an area that the rest of medicine could look to as an example.

The professionals making bigger, more realistic breast implants are simultaneously improving affordability, safety, and quality at a rapid rate🧵 Image
Consider one of the most recent improvements in boobtech: the Mia.

The Mia is the first successful "injectable" breast implant.

It cuts down scarring, complications, surgery time and cost, and it looks and feels more realistic than earlier implants. Image
The Mia is installed with a small armpit incision about 2 centimeters in length.

This is a significant reduction from earlier generations, which were regularly closer to 7 centimeters, or almost 3 inches. Image
Read 15 tweets
Oct 18
This should be considered *far* more alarming than the polls about political violence.

Two-thirds positive views towards an evil ideology that has killed tens of millions and cannot work is *very* bad. Image
It doesn't really matter if, at the end of the day, they're actually tepid towards socialism. This is like 66% of people saying Hitler was OK.

Source: news.gallup.com/poll/694835/im…

And an article qualifying how we understand support for political violence: cremieux.xyz/p/lets-not-ove…
I get too many dumb comments.

The dumb comment for this post is going to be something along the lines of 'But they're thinking about [successful place] not [bad place]!'

Ten points if you realize why that is not a meaningful reply.
Read 9 tweets
Oct 17
This is not true and there has never been a reason to believe it.

When we do have raw data for anywhere, we see that there's consistent scoring over time, not massive intelligence gains.

If we do not take measurement invariance seriously, we will be seriously misled. Image
I actually think it is exactly Noah's sort of post that helps to keep the culture of scientific fraud in academia and elsewhere alive.

Noah is smart enough and has been told enough to know better, and he still wrote something that he can't support.

But it's a popular message.
The message is just empirically wrong.

Will we ever move beyond the Cargo Cult version of the Flynn Effect that people like Noah, knowingly or otherwise, are wont to promote?

I don't think we will!

To learn more, see:
Read 5 tweets

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