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THE SHORT BEAR Profile picture
@TheShortBear
Apr 15 • 4 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
A few books to study the subject:

1. "The Little Book That Still Beats the Market" by Joel Greenblatt

2. "The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor" by Howard Marks

3. "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham

4. „Thinking, Fast and Slow“ by… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
To make the point clearer:

"In the short term, the market is a voting machine, but in the long term, it is a weighing machine."

- Warren Buffett

"The idea of excessive stock market competition destroying the pricing mechanism has some validity, but it’s not a total disaster.… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The point I am making is that the companies with the safest earnings predictability are the ones with the highest moat or competitive advantage.

These will oscillate between over and undervalued around their Earnings per share trend.
Overperformers capture the company growth which is reflected by the EPS growth long term as well as the mispricing to intrinsic value.

If a company grows eps at 15% and a short term issue gives you a 35% discount your 10y gain equals 18.5%/y only by going back to equilibrium.

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More from @TheShortBear

THE SHORT BEAR Profile picture
Apr 15
Banks are beating this earnings season.

My analysis gives me an intrinsic value of about 42$ which gave me a 34% discount to enter.

The quicker we make our way to that intrinsic value the quicker I will be looking to repark the gain into another discounted asset.
$BAC remains an asset I gladly own, returning a 3%+ dividend which equates to 6 figures per year in dividends which I will gladly use to increase existing positions and further compound.

It allows me to diversify within a space that until now I could not justify owning.
$BAC really crystalizes what I am trying to share about my investing philosophy.

Buying companies with the biggest competitive advantage and best fundamentals at a discount when people hate or panic out of a space.
Read 9 tweets
THE SHORT BEAR Profile picture
Apr 15
Enormous action within the small cap AI space.

Very particular how much time it took for the AI hype to go from the media and using it to actually showing up within stocks.

$AI was the first one, however the lack of overall liquidity within the market killed it.
$CXAI is the first one to actually show a strong bid which led to all name including 'ai' in their name to run.

You can see that the liquidity is missing through the volume these are trading, even with a sectoral theme.

$SAI $CXAI $MRAI
Sectoral themes are known for their continuous bid and volume and we barely made it to 40,000,000 volume.

Average volume during prior themes:

BTC: 70mil
EV: 85mil
Covid: 70mil

And these names were trading at double digit eclipsing the current $ volume.
Read 4 tweets
THE SHORT BEAR Profile picture
Apr 14
Good va great investors

There is a behavioral trait I see in the best that good investors do not have.

Good investors think about a deal as a stagnant point in time.

Ex: XYZ has an earnings of $2 per share and trades at $16. The investor sees the rate of return of 12.5%.
Think of it all like a bond returning the capital to the shareholder.

Great investors think about the competitive advantage and future of that bond.

Ex: XYZ has an earnings of $2 per share and trades at $20. The investor sees the rate of return of 10%, however in this… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The company is growing at 10% and has an incredible moat(picture $AMZN, $MSFT and alike)

After 7 years your bond returns $3.9 per share or 20% which is due to the EPS growth.

After 12 years? $6.27 EPS or 31.4% bond.
Read 4 tweets
THE SHORT BEAR Profile picture
Apr 12
SoftBank moves to sell down most of its Alibaba stake.

Softbank made $7.2bn from forward sales of shares in Chinese ecommerce group.

Softbank will cut its exposure to the Chinese ecommerce group to just 3.8% from about 14.6%. Image
At the end of February, SoftBank had only 98mn shares of Alibaba left to sell.

With forward sales, SoftBank generally lends its Alibaba shares to a broker, which sells the shares over a period of days or weeks. The broker takes a fee before returning the proceeds to Softbank.
This is not the first time they sell $BABA

In August 2022, Softbank reduced its stake in Alibaba to 14.6% from 23.7% by settling prepaid forward contracts.

The reaction to the news piece?
Gap ups and bottoms Image
Read 6 tweets
THE SHORT BEAR Profile picture
Apr 10
10,000% return study.

Alta fox conducted a 100-bagger study, in which they studies all 100x returns ending between $150M USD and $10B during a study period of 2015 to 2019.

The main findings🧵

The multiple expansion is as important if not more than the earnings growth. Image
Here is the scanner they used to find these winners. Image
Do not close your eyes to foreign companies.

Most 100x came from Europe.

here is the exchange breakdown:
•21.15% Nasdaq(us)
•13.46% AIM(uk)
•12.5% OMX(mix)
•11.54% ASX(au)
•9.62% XETRA(de)
•7.69% Oslo Bors(no) Image
Read 10 tweets
THE SHORT BEAR Profile picture
Mar 23
+$151,267

Interesting day so I thought I would share this one.

Overall happy with today, despite one mistake on the options side which I thought were weeklies.

Let us dig into it 👇
$SQ

Hindenburg published their piece on Adani on January 24. What followed was a 70%+ crash in the stock.

They mentioned this piece when releasing today's piece on $SQ today.

An overblown piece which has nothing to do with the type of accusations they released on Adani then.
The sequential nature of the events led to what I felt like was an overreaction on a day that has bad shorting odds.

Hindenburg ranks at Nr4,they are good, but not the best like @KerrisdaleCap.

This trade was so exotic that I wanted to participate.

more:
Read 8 tweets

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