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Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
@HoansSolo
Apr 16 • 5 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
New Prigozhin essay: „The strategic role of Bakhmut is not so great. Bakhmut is followed by Seversk, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Konstantinovka, Druzhkovka and Chasov Yar: settlements that are part of the so-called ‚Donbas ring’ and form a fortified area.“ telegra.ph/Tolko-chestnyj…
„On the other hand, the capture of Bakhmut itself will not ensure a short-term victory over Ukraine, the road to the Dnieper, or even the capture of Donbass.“ h/t @DrRadchenko
„If the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not go on the offensive in the near future, they will gradually begin to lose their combat potential. The war will reach a stalemate, & those territories that are now under the control of the Russian Federation may remain“ so.
„Bakhmut is extremely beneficial for us, we grind the Ukrainian army there and restrain their maneuvers.“
On recent #leaks: The „documents themselves are not strategic and do not pose any threat to the Armed Forces of Ukraine after their publication. This means that they cannot in any way add risks to the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the event of their occurrence.“

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More from @HoansSolo

Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Apr 18
My latest: The first 24 hrs. of Ukraine’s much anticipated counteroffensive may be the longest day for the 🇺🇦 Armed Forces. The initial phase of an attack often shapes the character of the subsequent fight & determines the strategic impact of an offensive. foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/18/ukr…
Whatever happens on Ukraine’s D-Day, it will not be easy for Ukrainian forces to avoid the war’s character as one of attrition, even if they are large, well-prepared, and well-equipped.
There is perhaps only one way for Ukraine to escape the scourge of attrition in the opening hours of the upcoming offensive: set off paralysis in the Russian military leadership and panic across the Russian rank and file.
Read 9 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Apr 18
Also,I think arguments about self-deterrence in this context are somewhat exaggerated. True to a degree but:
1. Some Western countries simply made the calculation that it is not in their national interest to deliver the bulk of their most advanced weapons & munitions to Ukraine.
"NATO countries cannot discount the possibility of direct hostilities with Russia, and the United States must prepare for potential military action in Asia (to deter or respond to any Chinese move against Taiwan) and in the Middle East (against Iran or terrorist networks)."
2. The West collectively is running low on certain platforms, weapons systems, and munitions needed in Ukraine. So the problem is a structural one caused by reductions in force sizes, cut in defense budgets etc. & not just political will.
Read 4 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Apr 16
Wie ist Österreich sicherheitsstrategisch darauf ausgerichtet? Wie sehen die geopolitischen Anforderungen im Jahr 2023 aus? Ist Östererichs Neutralität noch zeitgemäß? Neuer Videoblog 👇

kleinezeitung.at/politik/aussen…
Die Sicherheitsstrategie sollte folgendes berücksichtigen:

1. Die konventionelleNachrüstung des Bundesheeres.

2. Die Energieunabhängigkeit vom russischen Gas und Förderung von Investitionen in erneuerbare Energien.
3. Konkrete, strategisch durchdachtr Schritte zur Bekämpfung der Klimakrise.
Read 7 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Apr 5
My latest analysis for @ForeignPolicy in which I argue that from both diplomatic & military perspectives, the Austrian, Irish, and Maltese governments’ case for maintaining neutrality is weak & could endanger their national security down the road.
foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/04/fin…
Maintaining neutrality will become more difficult for 2 main reasons. First, the existence of European neutral countries is much less useful to non-neutrals today than it was during the Cold War, when it served the purposes of both East and West.
Not only will great powers be less inclined to respect neutrality in the future, but the European Union, too, will increasingly find its neutral members an obstacle as the bloc tries to develop a common security and defense policy.
Read 17 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Apr 4
A Soviet map of Cuba with instructions on readying the 5 regiments of the 51st Missile Division (based in western Ukraine) in the country in 1962.
The Soviet intended to deploy 60 ballistic missiles incl. 36 medium-range R-12s & 24 intermediate-range R-14s in 🇨🇺.
The map is from this fascinating @ForeignAffairs article by @DrRadchenko & @VladislavZubok1 on the Cuban Missile Crisis.

The Soviet culture & leadership philosophy that led to the "palm tree fiasco" appears to be still prevalent in today's 🇷🇺 military.

foreignaffairs.com/cuba/missile-c…
"The greatest gamble in nuclear history was presented to the rest of the military as routine training. In a striking parallel, Putin’s misadventure in Ukraine was also billed as an 'exercise,' with unit-level commanders being left in the dark until the last moment."
Read 5 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Apr 2
Ich sehe solche Aussagen als Bildungsauftrag. Unter Politiker:innen im deutschsprachigen Raum herrscht ein eklatanter Mangel an Grundkenntnissen bezüglich der Natur militärischer Gewalt, moderner Kriegsführung, & Diplomatie im militärischen Kontext.

h/t @ArminWolf Image
'Erfolgreiche' Friedensverhandlungen sind wegen der militärischen Realitäten in der Ukraine schwer bis gar nicht durchführbar, es sei den man meint mit Friedensgesprächen das unilaterale Einstellen der Kampfhandlungen auf 🇺🇦 Seite. Ist das die @SPOE_at Position @rendiwagner?
Im übrigen ernennen sich Eliten grundsätzlich immer selbst zu Eliten.
Read 4 tweets

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