The Kobeissi Letter Profile picture
Apr 16, 2023 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
US national debt just hit a record $31.5 trillion, up over $8 trillion since 2020.

Total federal debt per household is now $240,000.

We now have a higher Debt/GDP ratio than post-World War 2, at 120%.

Here are some important facts about US national debt.

(a thread)

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US national debt is now over 120% of GDP, which was $26.1 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2022.

In 2020, the Debt/GDP ratio hit a record 135% as the government passed over $4 trillion in stimulus.

By comparison, Debt/GDP after WW2 hit 114%.

The US has a TON of debt.

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21.8% of the public debt, or $6.9 trillion, is owned by the federal government itself.

This includes Medicare, specialized funds and retirement programs.

9.2% of US debt belongs to the Social Security program.

A program that may run out of money holds ~10% of our debt.

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Today, the Federal Reserve System is the largest holder of US debt.

After their massive balance sheet expansion during the pandemic, the Fed now owns ~20% of US debt.

At its peak in April 2022, the Fed held more than $6.25 trillion in US debt.

This was a historic move.

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Meanwhile, servicing US debt is one of the government's biggest expenses.

Net interest payments on the debt are estimated to total $396 billion this fiscal year, or 6.8% of all federal outlays.

Interest expense since 2010 has totaled over $3 trillion.

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Despite record high interest, rates on US debt are still at historic lows.

While this seems like good news, rates are rising as the Fed attempts to cool inflation.

Currently, rates on US debt are at ~2%, while in the 1990s, it was ~9%.

Interest expense is rising quickly.

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The US deficit is on track to hit $3 trillion by 2033 while Debt/GDP will hit 200% by 2046.

According to the US Treasury, “the rise in Debt/GDP indicates current fiscal policy is unsustainable.”

The debt crisis is here.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for more as this develops.

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More from @KobeissiLetter

Jul 15
What is happening in Japan?

Treasury yields in Japan have silently surged to new RECORD highs, with the 30Y Yield hitting 3.20% today.

Japan's 30Y government bonds have LOST -45% of their value since 2019.

Is it too late for Japan to rescue its economy?

(a thread) Image
The collapse of Japan's bond market has been incredibly telling.

In fact, we are beginning to see some similarities in the US as deficit spending accelerates.

It almost seems like investors have lost confidence in the Japanese government's ability to pay down debt. Image
Over the last year, Japan’s 30Y bond yield has surged 100 basis points.

This created massive unrealized losses for financial institutions.

Unrealized losses on domestic bonds for 4 of Japan’s largest life insurers QUADRUPLED in 12 months, to a record $60 billion in Q1 2025. Image
Read 13 tweets
Jul 14
This is not a "normal."

We have reached a point where Bitcoin is moving in a literal STRAIGHT-LINE higher.

Rates are rising, the USD is down -11% in 6 months, and crypto is up +$1 TRILLION in 3 months.

What's happening? Bitcoin has entered "crisis mode."

(a thread) Image
Bitcoin has reached a point where it is quite literally making new all time highs multiple times a day.

Since the US House passed President Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" on July 3rd, Bitcoin is up +$15,000.

If the surge in gold prices didn't alert you, Bitcoin should. Image
Does it get any more obvious than this?

Take a look at the YTD performance of Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index, $DXY.

There were two distinct points of divergence:

April 9th after the 90-day tariff pause and July 1st as the "Big Beautiful Bill" was passed.

It's beyond clear. Image
Read 13 tweets
Jul 10
Are you paying attention?

Bitcoin is now up +55% since its April 2025 low, hitting a RECORD $115,000.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar just had its WORST start to a year since 1973, falling nearly -11% in 6 months.

This is not a coincidence. Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
Heading into April 2025, Bitcoin was moving in a straight-line lower on trade war fears.

On April 9th, tariffs were delayed for 90 days and Bitcoin bottomed.

On April 20th, the real rally began, without any major news, days after the delay.

So, what really happened here? Image
It's clear that the story for crypto has become much more than just being a decentralized currency.

Rather, it has become the hedge (along with gold) against the biggest crisis in the US:

Deficit spending.

Crypto and gold are telling a clear story: the crisis worsening.
Read 13 tweets
Jul 10
The crisis continues:

Since the debt ceiling was raised on July 3rd, US debt is now up $410 BILLION in 2 days.

This comes after the US Treasury ended "extraordinary measures," raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion.

We are in the midst of the US' largest crisis.

(a thread) Image
After hitting the debt limit of $36.1 trillion in January 2025, the Treasury began “extraordinary measures” to conserve cash.

Then, last week, President Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" was signed into law.

This raised the debt ceiling from $36.1 trillion to $41.1 trillion. Image
US debt rising by $410 billion in 2 days after the ceiling is raised is due to a technical process.

This includes refilling the Treasury General Account (TGA), settling delayed obligations, and reversing deferrals.

These were all suspended due to "extraordinary measures."
Read 15 tweets
Jul 9
It's official:

President Trump is now calling for the first 300+ basis point interest rate cut in US history.

This would be 3 TIMES larger than the 100 bps cut on March 15th, 2020, the largest in history.

So, what happens if the Fed does this? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
First, President Trump mentions that higher rates are costing the US more money on interest expense.

At a high level, this is true.

Annual interest expense on US debt has reached $1.2 TRILLION over the last 12 months.

The US is now paying $3.3 BILLION in interest per day. Image
Now, let's examine the benefits.

President Trump claims a 300 bps rate cut would save $360B/point per year, or $1.08T/year.

It seems Trump computed the $360B/year figure from 1% x $36 trillion in US debt.

However, only publicly held debt matters, which stands at ~$29B. Image
Read 15 tweets
Jun 23
Iran's response has begun:

After US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran just attacked US military bases in Qatar and Iraq.

Meanwhile, oil prices just CRASHED over -6% on the news.

Why? Markets are saying EVERYTHING you need to know. Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
Iranian media just announced that Iran has launched operation "Annunciation of Victory."

Iran's Armed Forces said they will not leave any attack on Iran unanswered.

This was Iran's first response to the US since the 3 strikes conducted by the US Airforce this weekend. Image
The initial reaction by markets was a selloff in stocks and a jump in oil prices.

The most common thought process here is than an Iranian response is escalatory.

But, this did NOT last long.

In fact, the market is painting the EXACT OPPOSITE situation right now.
Read 12 tweets

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