The Kobeissi Letter Profile picture
Apr 16, 2023 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
US national debt just hit a record $31.5 trillion, up over $8 trillion since 2020.

Total federal debt per household is now $240,000.

We now have a higher Debt/GDP ratio than post-World War 2, at 120%.

Here are some important facts about US national debt.

(a thread)

1/7
US national debt is now over 120% of GDP, which was $26.1 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2022.

In 2020, the Debt/GDP ratio hit a record 135% as the government passed over $4 trillion in stimulus.

By comparison, Debt/GDP after WW2 hit 114%.

The US has a TON of debt.

2/7 Image
21.8% of the public debt, or $6.9 trillion, is owned by the federal government itself.

This includes Medicare, specialized funds and retirement programs.

9.2% of US debt belongs to the Social Security program.

A program that may run out of money holds ~10% of our debt.

3/7 Image
Today, the Federal Reserve System is the largest holder of US debt.

After their massive balance sheet expansion during the pandemic, the Fed now owns ~20% of US debt.

At its peak in April 2022, the Fed held more than $6.25 trillion in US debt.

This was a historic move.

4/7 Image
Meanwhile, servicing US debt is one of the government's biggest expenses.

Net interest payments on the debt are estimated to total $396 billion this fiscal year, or 6.8% of all federal outlays.

Interest expense since 2010 has totaled over $3 trillion.

5/7 Image
Despite record high interest, rates on US debt are still at historic lows.

While this seems like good news, rates are rising as the Fed attempts to cool inflation.

Currently, rates on US debt are at ~2%, while in the 1990s, it was ~9%.

Interest expense is rising quickly.

6/7 Image
The US deficit is on track to hit $3 trillion by 2033 while Debt/GDP will hit 200% by 2046.

According to the US Treasury, “the rise in Debt/GDP indicates current fiscal policy is unsustainable.”

The debt crisis is here.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for more as this develops.

7/7

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with The Kobeissi Letter

The Kobeissi Letter Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @KobeissiLetter

Sep 14
This is historic:

Newly released data shows that US household net worth jumped by +$7.1 TRILLION in Q2 2025 alone.

In other words, for 3-straight months, US households added an average of +$79 BILLION in net worth PER DAY.

What just happened? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
The Fed just released their latest Z.1 report, as shown below.

Total US household net worth hit a record $176.3 trillion in Q2 2025.

The +$7.1 trillion QoQ increase marks the largest dollar increase since Q4, during the pandemic recovery.

Such a large jump is extremely rare. Image
In fact, US household net worth is historically high relative to GDP.

Household net worth now equals 581% of US GDP, the highest since Q1 2022.

The wealth gap between asset owners and everyone else is widening quickly.

The stock market was largely behind this gain. Image
Read 12 tweets
Sep 13
The time has come:

On Wednesday, the Fed will cut rates for the first time in 2025 and "blame" a weak labor market.

This will be just the 3rd year since 1996 with Fed rate cuts while the S&P 500 is at record highs.

What happens next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
In fact, US stock valuations have reached their highest level on record, according to Bloomberg.

This surpasses the Dot-Com bubble and 1929 peak before the Great Depression.

But, it may be justified as the world experiences its biggest technological revolution in 20+ years. Image
It's a rather unique situation for the Fed this time around.

Typically, the Fed cuts interest rates in a weak economy with stocks well below record highs.

While the strength of the economy is up for debate, GDP growth remains robust.

GDP is growing at 3%+ per year. Image
Read 13 tweets
Sep 9
There it is:

The US Labor Department just revised -911,000 jobs out of 12 months of already reported data, the largest revision in history.

This is officially ABOVE 2009 levels, with jobs data overstated by ~76,000 PER MONTH.

What's next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
Here's the data itself.

We are seeing large revisions in consumer-oriented categories.

This includes -176,000 jobs in Leisure and Hospitality, and -226,000 jobs in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities.

Total private hiring was overstated by a massive -880,000 jobs. Image
This now marks the largest revision in history, even above 2009 levels.

In 2009, the US revised -902,000 jobs out of 12 months of already reported data.

We are now seeing revisions that are larger than the largest financial crisis outside of the US Great Depression. Image
Read 12 tweets
Sep 6
It's worse than you think:

After a SECOND data revision, the US went from "adding" 147,000 jobs in June 2025, to LOSING -13,000 jobs.

Cumulative payrolls have now officially been revised down by -1.1 MILLION jobs since February 2022.

What is happening here?

(a thread) Image
This is completely broken.

If you take a look at NET revisions just for 2025, the US has seen -482,000 jobs revised out of the initially reported data.

This is roughly equivalent to the entire population of Atlanta, GA.

All revised out of just 2025's data year-to-date. Image
In August 2024, this issue began gaining some publicity.

This was when the BLS revised 12-month job growth down by a massive -818,000 jobs.

It marked the largest downward revision since 2008 in an economy where the Fed was calling for a "soft landing."

It's getting worse. Image
Read 10 tweets
Sep 5
This is absolutely insane:

The US just revised the June jobs report lower for a SECOND time for a total of -160,000 jobs.

Now, the US has officially LOST -13,000 jobs in June, the first negative month since July 2021.

What just happened? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
Take a look at this.

The June jobs report has now been revised lower by a total of -160,000 jobs.

This is MORE than the initially reported GAIN of +147,000 jobs, a seriously concerning trend in our data.

If this is not a "broken" system, it's hard to say what is. Image
In fact, the May and June jobs report were just revised lower by a combined -280,000 jobs.

And, every single jobs report in 2025 has been revised lower aside from July.

Not only is something wrong with our data, but the labor market is entering recession territory. Image
Read 12 tweets
Sep 4
The US labor market is in trouble:

Job cuts just surged by +88,736 in August 2025 alone, the highest August total since 2020.

This brings the YTD total up to 892,362 job cuts, up a whopping +66% compared to 2024.

What's happening to the labor market?

(a thread) Image
Aside from 2020, there has not been an August total that exceeded 85,000 job cuts since 2008.

We are seeing 2020 and 2008-like job cuts in what many have called a "strong" economy.

The YTD total is already 17% ABOVE the FULL YEAR total of 761,358 seen in 2024. Image
And, it's not all DOGE anymore.

While DOGE cuts have accounted for a massive 292,279 job cuts YTD, it's also the economy.

The 2nd most cited reason for workforce cuts, responsible for 199,297 cuts, is "market and economic conditions."

The Fed will lean on this in September. Image
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(