The Kobeissi Letter Profile picture
Apr 16, 2023 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
US national debt just hit a record $31.5 trillion, up over $8 trillion since 2020.

Total federal debt per household is now $240,000.

We now have a higher Debt/GDP ratio than post-World War 2, at 120%.

Here are some important facts about US national debt.

(a thread)

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US national debt is now over 120% of GDP, which was $26.1 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2022.

In 2020, the Debt/GDP ratio hit a record 135% as the government passed over $4 trillion in stimulus.

By comparison, Debt/GDP after WW2 hit 114%.

The US has a TON of debt.

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21.8% of the public debt, or $6.9 trillion, is owned by the federal government itself.

This includes Medicare, specialized funds and retirement programs.

9.2% of US debt belongs to the Social Security program.

A program that may run out of money holds ~10% of our debt.

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Today, the Federal Reserve System is the largest holder of US debt.

After their massive balance sheet expansion during the pandemic, the Fed now owns ~20% of US debt.

At its peak in April 2022, the Fed held more than $6.25 trillion in US debt.

This was a historic move.

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Meanwhile, servicing US debt is one of the government's biggest expenses.

Net interest payments on the debt are estimated to total $396 billion this fiscal year, or 6.8% of all federal outlays.

Interest expense since 2010 has totaled over $3 trillion.

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Despite record high interest, rates on US debt are still at historic lows.

While this seems like good news, rates are rising as the Fed attempts to cool inflation.

Currently, rates on US debt are at ~2%, while in the 1990s, it was ~9%.

Interest expense is rising quickly.

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The US deficit is on track to hit $3 trillion by 2033 while Debt/GDP will hit 200% by 2046.

According to the US Treasury, “the rise in Debt/GDP indicates current fiscal policy is unsustainable.”

The debt crisis is here.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for more as this develops.

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More from @KobeissiLetter

Nov 15
Is the post-election rally over?

The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 are all set to close the week in the red.

The Nasdaq is down -2.7% this week and set to post its LARGEST weekly decline since September 3rd.

Here's a breakdown of what's happening and what's next.

(a thread)
It has now been 10 days since the election and the S&P 500 heat map is interesting.

Over the last week, almost all large-cap technology stocks are trading lower.

Financials are doing well along with energy stocks, but large cap tech is not and this is limiting the rally. Image
Still, the S&P 500 posted a historic 5.5% post-election rally from November 5th through November 11th.

This was nearly TRIPLE the average historical return in an election year from November 5th - December 31st.

It was also ~2 percentage points more than the median return. Image
Read 12 tweets
Nov 14
Warren Buffett is back to buying:

For the first time since building a record $325 billion cash balance, Warren Buffett updated his portfolio.

In his Q3 2024 portfolio update, Buffett made 2 big BUYS and sold more existing positions.

Here's what you need to know.

(a thread)
In Berkshire Hathaway's latest earnings, they announced that their cash balance hit a record $325 BILLION.

Berkshire Hathaway’s, $BRK, cash position relative to total assets jumped to 28.0% in Q3 2024, the most in at least 34 years.

They now hold MORE Treasuries than the Fed. Image
Warren Buffett also announced that stock buybacks would were halted.

This compares to $345 million in Q2 2023 and $2 billion in each of the 2 prior quarters.

Berkshire said they will resume when Buffett “believes that the repurchase price is below Berkshire’s intrinsic value." Image
Read 12 tweets
Nov 14
The Fed's worst nightmare has begun:

We now have MULTIPLE rising inflation metrics with signs of a weakening labor market.

For the first time since September 2022, both CPI and PPI inflation are officially back on the rise.

Did the era of stagflation just begin?

(a thread)
For the first time since April 2023, Core PPI and CPI inflation are back above 3.0%.

Even as the Fed thought inflation was heading to their 2% target, it clearly is NOT.

Inflation has clearly leveled off ABOVE the Fed's 2% target, yet they keep cutting interest rates. Image
This helps explain why we have seen straight-line higher price action in the 10-year note yield.

Even as the Fed has cut rates by 75 basis points, with an unexpected 50 bps cut in September, rates are RISING.

Many believe mortgage rates are heading to 8%+ next. Image
Read 11 tweets
Nov 13
This is incredible:

#Bitcoin is officially the 7th largest asset in the world, worth over $1.8 TRILLION.

In fact, Bitcoin is now larger than Saudi Aramco, the LARGEST oil company in the world.

Is Bitcoin about to be larger than ALL public companies in the world?

(a thread)
To put this into perspective, #Bitcoin is now larger than Tesla and Netflix COMBINED.

In the same week, Bitcoin has surpassed the value of both Silver and Saudi Aramco.

It's now just 11% away from becoming a $2 trillion asset for the first time in history.

Truly historic. Image
Bitcoin is also exactly HALF the size of Nvidia, $NVDA, the largest public company in the world right now.

This means it would take Bitcoin rising to ~$185,000 to become larger than all public companies.

At the current pace, it's possible we see $100,000+ Bitcoin this week. Image
Read 11 tweets
Nov 12
Oil prices are crashing:

While stocks are hitting record highs, oil prices are down 12% in 4 weeks and nearing their lowest levels since May 2023.

Today, OPEC cut its oil demand growth forecasts for the FOURTH consecutive month.

What are oil markets telling us?

(a thread)
Here's the technical setup that we have been trading with our premium members all year.

Just about every rally has been sold with multiple key technical price channels.

Trading this has been very profitable, but the trend clearly shifted lower around March 2024. Image
Weak oil demand in China, the world's largest oil consumer, has been the primary underlying issue.

Most recently, China’s crude oil imports in the first 9 months of the year fell by nearly 3% on the year to 10.99 million bpd.

This was the 5th consecutive monthly decrease. Image
Read 9 tweets
Nov 11
Wondering what's happening with Bitcoin?

#Bitcoin was the single BIGGEST winner of the 2024 election and it's not even close.

So far, 50 out of the 58 candidates for US Congress backed by pro-crypto PACs have won their races.

The craziest part?

The remaining 8 races have yet to be called with many of these races having pro-crypto candidates in the lead.

Here's a breakdown of exactly what just happened for crypto policy.

(a thread)Image
When looking at the US House, 45 candidates backed by crypto PACs were both Republicans and Democrats.

In fact, there were a total of 26 Democrats and 19 Republicans.

This was NOT a partisan-based campaign, it was simply for any candidate that would support crypto. Image
A total of $245 MILLION was spent on pro-crypto candidate donations, according to CNBC.

Donald Trump’s campaign has raised more than $22 million from crypto sources.

Never in history has crypto had the influence in an election as it did this year, and it's not even close.
Read 9 tweets

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