The Kobeissi Letter Profile picture
Apr 16, 2023 7 tweets 3 min read Read on X
US national debt just hit a record $31.5 trillion, up over $8 trillion since 2020.

Total federal debt per household is now $240,000.

We now have a higher Debt/GDP ratio than post-World War 2, at 120%.

Here are some important facts about US national debt.

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US national debt is now over 120% of GDP, which was $26.1 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2022.

In 2020, the Debt/GDP ratio hit a record 135% as the government passed over $4 trillion in stimulus.

By comparison, Debt/GDP after WW2 hit 114%.

The US has a TON of debt.

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21.8% of the public debt, or $6.9 trillion, is owned by the federal government itself.

This includes Medicare, specialized funds and retirement programs.

9.2% of US debt belongs to the Social Security program.

A program that may run out of money holds ~10% of our debt.

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Today, the Federal Reserve System is the largest holder of US debt.

After their massive balance sheet expansion during the pandemic, the Fed now owns ~20% of US debt.

At its peak in April 2022, the Fed held more than $6.25 trillion in US debt.

This was a historic move.

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Meanwhile, servicing US debt is one of the government's biggest expenses.

Net interest payments on the debt are estimated to total $396 billion this fiscal year, or 6.8% of all federal outlays.

Interest expense since 2010 has totaled over $3 trillion.

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Despite record high interest, rates on US debt are still at historic lows.

While this seems like good news, rates are rising as the Fed attempts to cool inflation.

Currently, rates on US debt are at ~2%, while in the 1990s, it was ~9%.

Interest expense is rising quickly.

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The US deficit is on track to hit $3 trillion by 2033 while Debt/GDP will hit 200% by 2046.

According to the US Treasury, “the rise in Debt/GDP indicates current fiscal policy is unsustainable.”

The debt crisis is here.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for more as this develops.

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More from @KobeissiLetter

Feb 5
What is happening in crypto?

Since October 10th, crypto markets are now down -50%, erasing $2.2 TRILLION worth of market cap.

Bitcoin has officially erased ALL of its post-election rally, now down -10% since Trump's election.

Why is it crashing? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
As of 8:00 AM ET today, Bitcoin has officially erased its post-election rally.

Yet, over the last 60 days, the fundamental picture for crypto is actually vastly unchanged.

This is why many investors are confused.

Why is crypto crashing if the fundamental picture is unchanged? Image
The answer to this question requires going back to October 10th.

The most recent TOP in crypto came on October 6th, just 4 days before the -$19.5 billion record liquidation.

Something structural appears to have shifted on October 10th.

And, markets never truly recovered. Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 20
This is unprecedented:

If President Trump acquires Greenland and "controls" Venezuela, the US would gain control of 1.2 MILLION square miles of land.

This is ~42% larger than the Louisiana Purchase, the largest US acquisition ever.

What's next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
It was an incredibly busy weekend.

On Saturday, Trump announced new 10% tariffs on eight European countries amid his push for Greenland.

Trump says these tariffs rise to 25% on June 1st.

They will remain until a deal is reached for "complete and total purchase of Greenland.” Image
The result was a series of escalations on the trade front and the EU threatening to retaliate.

Now, the EU Parliament is looking to end the 2025 US-EU trade deal.

Trump proceeded to double down, saying US acquiring Greenland is "imperative for national and world security." Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 7
Trump is going after the US housing market:

President Trump just announced he is BANNING single-family home purchases by institutional investors.

Within minutes, Blackstone's stock erased as much as -$17 BILLION today.

What happens next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
For years, investors have been upping purchases of single-family homes in the US.

At the start of the pandemic in 2020, investors saw purchases account for ~14% of transactions.

Now, that share is up to ~27% as the market has become increasingly unaffordable for buyers. Image
As a result, the median age of a first-time homebuyer in the US has surged to a record 40 years old.

This is up from a median age of 33 years old in 2021 and 29 in 1981.

But the question now becomes:

Is this the result of large institutional funds buying houses? Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 4
The Venezuela plot thickens:

While Venezuela holds 303 BILLION barrels of oil reserves, much of this is HEAVY crude oil.

Texas and Louisiana also *happen* to have 6 of the LARGEST HEAVY crude oil refineries in the world.

What does this mean? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
In the early 2000s, Venezuela was a MUCH larger oil producer than the US.

In fact, Venezuela produced 3 TIMES as much oil, at nearly 3.3 million barrels per day.

By 2020, Venezuela's production had declined to just 900K/day, while the US hit 5 million/day.

This is key. Image
First, Venezuela has been heavily sanctioned by the US for years.

This resulted in old infrastructure, hindering the ability to extract HEAVY crude oil.

Heavy oil is far more expensive to extract than light crude.

This requires advanced techniques like steam injection. Image
Read 12 tweets
Dec 27, 2025
The Silver Situation:

Silver prices are now up a MASSIVE +175% in 2025 and set to post an 8-month win streak for first time since 1980.

Gold and silver have added a combined +$16 TRILLION in market cap this year ALONE.

What is happening? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
As you may know, our view for 2025 has been "own assets or be left behind."

This year, just about ALL assets have pushed higher.

But, as of late, gold and silver are leading the charge, now up 4 and 8 TIMES as much as the S&P 500 YTD.

It all started with a weaker US Dollar. Image
The US Dollar is currently down -9% YTD on track for its worst year since 2017.

As rate cuts kicked off, the US Dollar saw further weakness.

And, as President Trump's new Fed Chair is set to be announced, markets are pricing-in even more dovish Fed policy.

This is key. Image
Read 12 tweets
Dec 18, 2025
What just happened?

Core CPI inflation in the US just unexpectedly fell to 2.6%, its LOWEST level since March 2021.

3 months ago, inflation rose to a 6-month high, and last month, the October CPI inflation report was "cancelled."

What changed? Let us explain.

(a thread) Image
At first glance, this looks like one of the best inflation reports in years.

The 40 bps drop in headline and core inflation is one of the largest YoY declines since 2023.

And, this comes as core inflation was expected to INCREASE.

It also comes at an interesting time. Image
Last month, the US cancelled the October CPI inflation report.

They cited "a lapse in appropriations" which prevented data from being collected during the government shutdown.

Why is this important?

It means the BLS had to make tons of assumptions for last month's data. Image
Read 12 tweets

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