This is insane:

The crypto industry spent more than $135 MILLION backing candidates in the 2024 election.

So far, EVERY single candidate they have backed has won, with 48 total victories.

Here's how crypto markets quietly became the biggest winner of the election.

(a thread) The cryptocurrency industry spent ~$135 million in the 2024 election cycle to back more than 50 candidates.

These candidates included both Democrats and Republicans.

48 out of 48 candidates backed by crypto’s PACs have been declared winner.

8 races currently remain.

It's official:

The election is over and we are seeing MASSIVE moves in stocks, adding TRILLIONS of market cap.

The S&P 500 has now added $1.3 trillion of market cap PER MONTH for 12-straight months.

So what's next and how can you get ahead of the next big move?

(a thread) It's clear that markets are viewing the end of an election as a significant de-risking event.

Immense amounts of uncertainty that were present yesterday are no longer a factor.

The S&P 500 is now less than 90 points away from hitting 6,000 for the first time in history.

The market is unfazed:

It's Election Day, Fed week, earnings season, and we just had the weakest jobs report since 2020.

Meanwhile, the Dow is up over +400 points on the day and the S&P 500 is up more than +1%.

Is this the most resilient stock market in history?

(a thread) To put things in perspective, even if you bought the S&P 500 at the PEAK before the 2020 pandemic, you're up 86% right now.

If you bought technology stocks one year ago, you're likely up 50% or more.

This has been a historic time to trade stocks and we think it gets better.

The time has come:

We are now less than 24 hours away from election day and markets are swinging.

Markets are the single most ACCURATE indicator for the likely outcome of the presidential election.

So what are the markets predicting for tomorrow's election outcome?

(a thread) With nearly $200 million traded on this @Kalshi market, prediction markets see a 57% chance of Trump winning tomorrow.

Yesterday, these odds briefly narrowed to 50-50 after Trump held a 30 percentage point lead 2 weeks ago.

Trump has regained the lead as of now.

It's officially election week:

So, what happens to the stock market going into Election Day and what should you do?

Dating back to 1920, returns before and after Election Day have been VERY different.

Here's everything you need to know about trading the election.

(a thread) Beginning with S&P 500 into and after Election Day, we can see a breakdown by election year below.

While 83% of election years had positive returns into election day, just 67% had positive returns after election day.

Still, median returns are +4.7% and +3.7% respectively.

This is insane:

Warren Buffett is now building his cash balance at an unprecedented rate, even as the market hits new records.

Berkshire Hathaway just announced that they are FREEZING buybacks and holding $325 BILLION of cash.

What does Warren Buffett see here?

(a thread) Berkshire Hathaway repurchased $0 of stock in Q3 2024.

This compares to $345 million in Q2 2023 and $2 billion in each of the 2 prior quarters.

Berkshire said it will buy back stock when Buffett “believes that the repurchase price is below Berkshire’s intrinsic value."

Current situation:

1. Stocks are falling like the economy is bracing for a recession

2. Oil prices are rising like the recession was cancelled

3. Gold prices are falling like inflation is gone

4. Bonds are falling like inflation has rebounded

5. Interest rates are rising like the "Fed pivot" is over

What's happening?

(a thread) The S&P 500 is about to post its largest daily drop since September 5th.

Nearly $800 BILLION of market cap has been wiped out from the S&P 500 today.

But just yesterday, calls for the S&P 500 to head higher were everywhere.

Bitcoin prices are skyrocketing:

This year, Bitcoin is now up over 60% and on track to be one of the best performing assets of 2024.

Over the last 12 months alone, crypto markets have added $1.5 TRILLION of market cap.

Can we finally see Bitcoin hit $100,000?

(a thread) Over the last 12 months, #Bitcoin has outperformed the S&P 500 by 2.5 TIMES.

As we entered 2024, people were cautioning that it's an election year which is "bad for Bitcoin."

Bitcoin turned out to be a pivotal part of the election, gaining widespread political support.

Oil markets are trading like we are in a recession:

Oil prices are down another -7% today and now down -20% over the last 6 months.

Despite record high stock prices and a Fed calling for a "soft landing," oil markets are crashing.

What are oil markets telling us?

(a thread) While all of the focus has been on the Fed, oil markets have been flashing recessionary signals.

Headlines like the one below are the new norm.

The reality is that global oil demand has cratered, particularly in China.

China is the largest consumer of oil in the world.

We are witnessing history:

Today's rally puts the S&P 500 officially up +40% over the last 12 MONTHS.

This is a larger 12-month gain than ANY annual return in the S&P 500 dating back to 1954.

How did a generational rally occur during times of historic uncertainty?

(a thread) Over the last 100 years, the S&P 500's average annual return has been roughly ~10%.

This means that over the last 12 months, the S&P 500 has returned FOUR TIMES its average annual return.

The last time we saw this?

After World War 2 ended and the US emerged as a superpower.

Elon Musk has done it again:

Just as everyone said "EVs are dead," Tesla stock, $TSLA, is up +20% today, adding +$150 BILLION of market cap.

Tesla is currently on track for its largest daily gain since 2011.

Here's how @ElonMusk proved shorts sellers wrong AGAIN.

(a thread) Yesterday, Tesla reported Q3 2024 revenue of $25.2 billion with EPS of $0.72, well above expectations of $0.58.

This marked a +8% jump in revenue and net income jumped sharply, to $2.17 billion.

$TSLA now has a market cap ABOVE $825 billion.

You can't make this up:

The average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage is OFFICIALLY back above 7%.

Since the Fed issued a "surprise" 50 basis point rate cut on September 18th, rates have moved in a straight-line higher.

Did the Fed just break the market again?

(a thread) For the first time since August 8th, the average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage is back above 7%.

Since the Fed cut rates, mortgage rates have risen over 50 BASIS POINTS.

Such extreme moves have rarely ever occur during interest rate CUTTING cycles.

The market is broken:

Interest rates have gone in a literal STRAIGHT-LINE higher since the Fed cut rates by 50 bps on September 18th.

The average 30 year mortgage is about to cross back above 7.0% for the first time since July.

What happened to the "Fed pivot?"

(a thread) The 10-year note yield is up 60 basis points in 1 month since the Fed began rate cuts.

For the first time since July, the 10-year note yield has crossed above 4.20%.

Bond markets are trading like inflation is back and the Fed is raising rates.

Something doesn't add up here.

Bitcoin is back.

While everyone was focused on stocks, #Bitcoin silently began a new bull market.

Over the last 12 months, crypto has added $1.3 TRILLION of market cap.

If Bitcoin was a company, it would be the 8th largest company in the WORLD.

What happened?

(a thread) Over the last 12 months, Bitcoin is now up a whopping 142%.

Since January 1st, Bitcoin is up 55%.

This makes Bitcoin a better performer than every Dow Jones component.

As risk appetite has returned, Bitcoin has benefitted more than most asset classes.

Gold is back in record territory:

Even as markets price-in a chance of NO rate cut in November, gold just broke above $2700/oz.

The US Dollar has strengthened by 3% since September 30th and gold prices are STILL positive this month.

Is gold heading to $3,000?

(a thread) This chart is incredible.

It's rare to see a time where the US Dollar and Gold trade together.

A stronger USD makes gold weaker as it becomes more expensive for foreign investors.

Over the last few weeks, both gold and $DXY are up over 2%.

What is gold trying to tell us?

Oil prices are crashing:

Despite supply disruption risks, stimulus in China and Fed rate cuts, oil prices are set to drop below $70 today.

Over the last week alone, oil prices are down nearly 12% from their peak.

Are oil markets pricing-in a recession in 2025?

(a thread) Breakouts in oil prices have been vastly limited all year.

When signs of supply pulling back arose, prices would fall on fears of weak demand in China.

Then, when China announced stimulus, prices fell recessions worries.

Oil prices had every reason to break $100, but didn't.

This is insane:

The S&P 500 is up +43% since October 2023 and set to post one of its best 12-month gains IN HISTORY.

But, aren't election years supposed to be "bad for the stock market?"

Here's why that's the biggest MYTH in the stock market (and what's next).

(a thread) In late-2023, we published a report stating that the bottom was in for the S&P 500.

Here's the headline chart from our report for members in January 2024 where we began calling for 5000+.

Headwinds were everywhere, so why did we get bullish? thekobeissiletter.com

Gold markets are telling us something:

Over the last 3 weeks, bond prices crashed and the US Dollar surged, both historically BEARISH signs for gold.

Meanwhile, gold prices are trading 1% away from a new all time high and up +29% this year.

What's happening here?

(a thread) Historically speaking, bond prices and gold trade together.

In times of uncertainty and volatility, investors flock to gold and bonds as safe havens.

As seen below, gold and bonds are moving OPPOSITE directions now.

Investors are ditching bonds even as the Fed cut by 50 bps.

Talk about a turn of events:

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index just crashed 9.4% today, posting its largest drop since 2008 and 2nd largest drop since 2000.

Over the last 3 weeks, China's stock market was up nearly 30% on stimulus announcements.

What just happened?

(a thread) A record 3.5 TRILLION yuan (US$500 billion) of equities changed in China's trading session today.

This surpassed the previous all time high which was set on September 30th after stimulus announcements.

So how can the market go from extreme euphoria to a crash so fast?

You can't make this up:

Bonds are falling like the "Fed pivot" is cancelled and the yield curve just turned NEGATIVE again.

The last time the yield curve was negative was the day of the Fed's 50 basis point interest rate cut.

What just happened to the "Fed pivot?"

(a thread) The 10-year note yield is now up 40 basis points since the "Fed pivot" began on September 18th.

For the first time since August 8th, the 10-year note yield is above 4.0%.

Just days ago, markets were calling for 2 MORE 50 basis point cuts in 2024.

Talk about a turn of events.

Current market mentality:

1. Jobs report above expectations: Buy stocks, we avoided a recession.

2. Jobs report below expectations: Buy stocks, the Fed is going to cut rates.

3. Jobs report in-line with expectations: Buy stocks, the Fed is on track for a "soft landing."

How did we end up here?

(a thread) This morning, the Labor Department reported that the US economy added 254,000 jobs in September.

This means the US economy added 107,000 MORE jobs than expected last month.

Markets traded higher with the S&P 500 up +48 points even as the "Fed pivot" was priced out.