Does the US government WANT a recession?

In 2025, $9.2 TRILLION of US debt will either mature or need to be refinanced.

The quickest way to LOWER rates ahead of this colossal refinancing would be a recession.

Could the US benefit from a market crash?

(a thread) Over the last 2 months, the 10-year note yield has fallen ~60 basis points.

This is partially due to anticipation of DOGE deficit spending cuts.

But, it's also due to increased uncertainty and rising odds of a US recession.

A recession would almost guarantee rate cuts.

This is absolutely insane:

On February 20th, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon sold $234 million worth of $JPM stock.

On February 22nd, Warren Buffett announced a record $334 BILLION cash balance.

12 days later, the Nasdaq 100 crashed -11%.

How did they know?

(a thread) Amid all of the headlines and market noise, Jamie Dimon made a large sale on February 20th.

He sold approximately 866,361 shares of $JPM at a price of ~$269.83/share, totaling $234M.

These shares were sold through various entities, including family trusts and LLCs.

Trading during trade wars:

Over the last 2 weeks, the S&P 500's market cap has swung by an average of $500+ BILLION per day.

This has created an exceptional trading environment for technical traders.

Want to capitalize on it? Here's what we've been doing.

(a thread) As seen below, the S&P 500 is now moving TRILLIONS of dollars of market cap on a weekly basis.

Random headlines from President Trump will move the S&P 500 by +/- $500 billion.

This has resulted in an exceptional trading environment.

Technical trading is crucial right now.

WOW.

The US saw 172,000 job cuts in February, with YTD government layoffs SURGING +41,300% due to @DOGE.

We have now seen a MASSIVE 221,812 job cuts in 2025, the highest YTD total since 2009.

Are we witnessing the largest federal layoff in US history?

(a thread) In February, there were a total of 172,017 job cuts in the US which marks a +103% year-over-year jump.

This also marks a +245% month-over-month jump and the highest monthly total since July 2020.

DOGE layoffs and economic uncertainty have resulted in pandemic-like job cuts.

What just happened?

Between 3:25 PM ET and 3:52 PM ET, the S&P 500 fell -105 POINTS without any major headlines.

This crash erased -$875 BILLION of market cap, or a whopping -$32.4 billion PER MINUTE.

Did we just witness the biggest bull trap of 2025?

(a thread) Here is a timeline of today's events.

Let's begin with some macroeconomic context.

Markets surged into the close on Monday and then erased that rally at the open today.

As tariffs went live, the S&P 500 fell to a new 2025 low.

We saw MANY tariff announcements today.

What is happening with crypto?

Crypto markets are now worth -$100 billion LESS than they were prior to the US Crypto Reserve announcement.

Over the last 24 hours, crypto has erased -$500 BILLION of market cap in a massive reversal.

Here's what you need to know.

(a thread) Here's a timeline of the last ~36 hours:

At 10:24 AM ET on Sunday, Trump announced the US Crypto Reserve.

By 8:30 PM ET, Crypto markets had gone from ~$2.7T to ~$3.1T in value, recouping most of their recent losses.

Now, 24 hours later, crypto markets are down to $2.6T.

What just happened?

The Dow just went from being up +300 points at the open to falling as much as -1,100 points in hours.

Between 10:00 AM and 3:30 PM ET, the S&P 500 erased a whopping $1.5 trillion in market cap.

Here's exactly what you need to know.

(a thread) A timeline of what happened:

The S&P 500 opened ~30 points higher in what appeared to be a continuation of Friday's move.

Then, at 1:00 PM ET, selling pressure began ahead of Trump's "investment announcement."

By 3:40 PM ET, the index had lost -$1.5 trillion from its high.

Something is happening:

The Volatility Index, $VIX, just surged above 20 for its 6th STRAIGHT day.

Since February 14th, the Volatility Index is now up +45% and the S&P 500 has seen near-daily swings of $500B+.

Are you ready for the era of volatility?

(a thread) According to Goldman Sachs' volatility panic index, stress is HIGH right now.

In fact, this index has surged from its December low of ~1.4 to ~9.1 on Friday.

Historically speaking, a reading of 9+ is fairly rare.

Investors are increasingly on edge in the current environment.

This is insane:

NEW data shows Washington DC home prices are now down -$146,500 since DOGE layoff discussions began.

Washington DC home prices are now at their LOWEST since January 2020, down -21% since November 2024.

What is happening? Let us explain.

(a thread) Last week ALONE, over 2,000 people filed for unemployment in Washington, DC.

In fact, year-to-date jobless claims in Washington DC are now up OVER +200% compared to 2024.

There is no state in the entire country that even comes close to what we are seeing in Washington DC.

It's official:

President Trump has officially announced the US Strategic Crypto Reserve and Bitcoin is back above $94,000.

In just 3 hours, crypto markets have now added over +$300 BILLION of market cap on the news.

What's coming next? Let us explain.

(a thread) At 10:24 AM ET today, President Trump made the below post.

He announced a "Crypto Strategic Reserve" and says he will "make sure the US is the Crypto Capital of the World."

However, on $XRP, $SOL, and $ADA were mentioned in the initial announcement of the reserve.

WOW.

The SEC just said that meme coins are generally NOT considered securities under US federal law.

They also said that meme coins have "limited or no use" and do not need to be registered with the SEC.

This is a MASSIVE statement by the SEC. The SEC explicitly states: "a meme coin is not itself a security."

They say this is because it does not "generate a yield or convey rights to future income, profits, or assets of a business."

This means that securities laws are NOT necessarily applicable to meme coins.

The market is confused:

We are now seeing 50+ POINT swings in the S&P 500 on an hourly basis as the trade war accelerates.

In just 5 hours today, the S&P 500 erased -$800 BILLION in market cap with 6 swings of 50+ points.

What is happening? Let us explain.

(a thread) As seen in the below heat map, MOST of the market is actually green today.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is down -1.2% and the Nasdaq is down -400 points.

The market is struggling to find direction, largely due to tech concentration.

We are seeing MASSIVE swings in tech stocks.

Crypto markets in trade wars:

Since trade war worries began on January 20th, crypto markets have erased -$800 BILLION.

For 10+ years, Bitcoin was viewed as a decentralized HEDGE against uncertainty, but something changed.

Why is crypto falling? Let us explain.

(a thread) At first glance, you may think that trade wars would benefit crypto, a decentralized system.

In fact, from 2015 through 2023, Bitcoin and Gold were viewed as SUBSTITUTES.

Now, Bitcoin and Gold are moving in opposite directions, as seen below.

Markets have clearly SHIFTED.

The trade war is back:

Minutes after President Trump announced 25% tariffs on the EU, the S&P 500 erased $500+ BILLION of market cap.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin just broke below $84,000 for the first time since November 11th.

What's next? Let us explain.

(a thread) At around 12:30 PM ET, President Trump began answering questions about tariffs.

He said 25% tariffs will be announced "very soon" and that the EU "was formed to screw the US."

He mentioned that the tariffs would be applied "generally" and specifically called out car imports.

The MicroStrategy liquidation:

As MicroStrategy, $MSTR, falls over -55%, many are asking about "forced liquidation."

The company now holds $44 BILLION worth of Bitcoin, could they be forced to sell it?

Is liquidation even possible? Let us explain.

(a thread) MicroStrategy currently holds ~499,096 Bitcoin worth a total of $43.7 billion.

Their average cost to acquire each Bitcoin is around $66,350.

So, here's a question we are getting a lot:

What happens to $MSTR if Bitcoin falls significantly below their average entry price?

Something is happening in crypto:

Since January, the number of "flash crashes" in crypto markets has risen sharply.

Crypto markets just erased -$300 BILLION in 24 hours without a single major bearish headline.

Why is this happening? Let us explain.

(a thread) Yesterday, crypto began selling off with Bitcoin initially dropping below $95,000.

However, at between 1:45 AM ET and 2:15 AM ET, Bitcoin fell -$5,000 in 30 minutes.

A similar drop was seen beginning at 4:45 AM ET.

As seen above, Ethereum has seen even worse liquidations.

Did liquidity in crypto just dry up?

Crypto markets have now erased -$325 BILLION of market cap since Friday morning.

At 5:00 PM ET today, crypto lost -$100 billion in 1 HOUR without any major headlines.

What is happening with crypto? Let us explain.

(a thread) Over the last 24 hours alone, we have seen ~$150 billion liquidated from the crypto market.

Selling has broadened with just about all crypto assets falling sharply.

Even the memecoin market appears to have lost a significant portion of its liquidity.

So, what's happening?

What is happening here?

The US government's balance sheet now holds a massive $45.5 TRILLION in liabilities.

At the same time, the US has just $5.7 trillion in assets.

How did we end up with a $39.8 TRILLION gap between assets and liabilities?

(a thread) Let's pretend the US government was a public company.

Typically speaking, investors are happy with a total debt to total asset ratio of ~0.3x to ~0.6x.

In other words, investors would like to see total debt levels at most around HALF of total assets.

Now, what about the US?

This is insane:

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway just announced they now hold a record $334 BILLION in cash.

To put this into perspective, between Q1 2024 and Q4 2024, their cash balance rose a massive $145.2 BILLION.

What does Warren Buffett see here?

(a thread) Below is Berkshire Hathaway's balance sheet:

They now hold $286.5 BILLION of US Treasury Bills and $44.3 billion of cash in their insurance and other business.

In their Railroad, Utilities and Energy business, they hold another ~$3.4 billion of cash.

This is unprecedented.

This is truly incredible:

Gold prices are now officially up +50% over the last 14 months and made ANOTHER all time high.

In fact, gold's market cap just hit $20 TRILLION for the first time in history.

Why are people still piling into gold? Let us explain.

(a thread) Just to explain how strong gold has been, take a look at this chart:

Since late-July, gold prices are up ~24% while the US Dollar is up ~2% and the 10-year note yield is up ~8%.

While gold and rates/USD typically have an inverse correlation, they are rising TOGETHER.

Why?

The DOGE Dividend:

Elon Musk just said DOGE is considering sending $5,000 refund checks to US taxpayers.

This plan would send 79 MILLION households a total of ~$400 BILLION, which is 20% of DOGE's projected savings by 2026.

What does this mean? Let us explain.

(a thread) For some background, it all began when an X user posted the below proposal.

The plan would redistribute ~20% of DOGE's projected $2 trillion in savings.

Only households that are NET PAYERS of Federal income tax would receive a $5,000 refund.

This is a key point in the plan.