Stimulus checks are back:

President Trump just announced the "tariff dividend," a payment of AT LEAST $2,000 per American.

We expect 85%+ of US adults to receive this, resulting in $400+ BILLION handed out.

All as US debt nears $40 trillion.

What's next? Let us explain. This morning, President Trump made the below announcement:

A dividend of at least $2,000 per person will be paid, EXCLUDING "high income people."

The economic implications of such a massive "stimulus"-like payment are huge.

Especially with markets at record highs.

The US government shutdown is expanding:

Today, the FAA officially began cutting 700 flights PER DAY across 40 airports.

Airports are now facing a shortage of 3,500 air traffic controllers with 4+ MILLION passengers impacted.

What happens next?

Let us explain. Today, the US government shutdown officially enters day 38.

This marks the longest shutdown in US history and nearly 5 TIMES the average.

But, today also marks the first day that the shutdown has gone "mainstream."

The FAA has announced flight cancellations beginning today.

It's official:

The US government has now entered day number 35, making it the LONGEST in history.

Since the shutdown began on October 1st, the US government has borrowed $600 BILLION worth of debt.

That's +$17 billion PER DAY.

What's happening? Let us explain. Today marks day 35 of the 2025 US government shutdown.

This ties the longest shutdown in history seen during President Trump's 1st term, in December 2018.

Historically speaking, the average length of a shutdown is 8 days.

The current shutdown is now 4.5 TIMES longer.

The elephant in the room:

AI stocks are outperforming consumer stocks by 20%+ over the last 60 DAYS.

And, as AI investment exceeds $1 TRILLION per year, car repossessions are at 2009 levels.

There are 2 US economies: Rich vs Poor, and AI is the lifeline of it all.

(a thread) For the first time in history, the Magnificent 7 stocks are now worth over a combined $20 TRILLION.

This means that these 7 stocks alone now account for a record ~35% of the S&P 500.

Not even the Dot-Com bubble in 2000 saw concentration like this.

Tech has taken over.

AI growth is exploding:

The US now has 5,426 data centers, more than ALL other major countries COMBINED.

And, there are $40 BILLION worth of US data centers under construction, up +400% since 2022.

This will soon reshape the global economy.

What's next? Let us explain. The magnitude of the data center boom became apparent in early-2024.

For the first time in history, the value of US data centers under construction will soon EXCEED office buildings.

Just 3 years ago, data centers were 1/7 the size of offices.

This is a modern-day gold rush.

We just witnessed history:

Yesterday, gold prices fell -5.7%, marking the largest 1-day drop since April 2013.

This is a ~4.5 sigma move.

In other words, such a large move only happens in 1 out of 240,000 days in a "normal" world.

What does it mean? Let us explain. Statistically speaking, gold's move was a near 5-sigma event.

However, in reality, gold has seen a move of this magnitude only 34 times since 1971.

In other words, this occurs in 34 of 13,088 trading days or 0.26% of the time, per @BurggrabenH.

This is EXTREMELY rare.

Margin debt is SKYROCKETING:

In September 2025, US investors took on another +$67 billion in margin debt bringing the total to a record $1.13 TRILLION.

Meanwhile, 5 TIMES levered ETFs have just been proposed to the SEC.

What does it all mean? Let us explain.

(a thread) Investor leverage has nearly DOUBLED over the last 2 years.

This marks a similar pace to the rise seen following the 2020 pandemic.

As a % of GDP, margin debt now sits just below the 2021 peak.

Needless to say, risk appetite is arguably at its strongest level ever.

Absolute insanity:

Gold has now officially added +$10 TRILLION of market cap in 12 months, up a massive +55%.

Over the last 72 hours, gold has rallied on EVERY headline, even as the S&P 500 erased -$2.5 trillion in 5 hours.

What's next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Gold has reached a point where the technicals seem to be irrelevant.

Gold's MONTHLY RSI just hit 91.5, marking its most "overbought" level since 1980.

Yet, gold prices are up another +$110/oz on the day today.

Not even 2001, 2008, or 2020 saw a reading of 90+!

It's official:

Crypto just saw its LARGEST liquidation event in history with 1.6 MILLION traders liquidated.

Over $19 BILLION worth of leveraged crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours, 9 TIMES the previous record.

Why did this happen? Let us explain.

(a thread) To put this into perspective:

The liquidation event we saw over the last 24 hours was ~$17 BILLION larger than the February 2025 crash.

It was more than 19 TIMES larger than the March 2020 crash and collapse of FTX.

Never in history have we seen anything even close to this.

What just happened?

At 10:57 AM ET, President Trump canceled his meeting with China and said "massive" tariff increases are coming.

40 minutes later, the S&P 500 erased -$1.2 TRILLION of market cap.

Is this dip a BUYING opportunity? Let us explain.

(a thread) Here is the statement that President Trump posted today.

He accused China of "lying" and imposing export controls on rare earth metals.

Trump cancelled his meeting in 2 weeks with China's President Xi and said "massive" tariff increases are coming.

So, what does it all mean?

This is BEYOND insane:

AI compute demand is now growing at over 2 TIMES the rate of Moore’s Law, creating a massive shortage.

Just to meet current demand, $500 billion must be invested in data centers PER YEAR until 2030.

What does this mean? Let us explain.

(a thread) For decades, Moore’s Law was the gold standard measure of technological progress.

That is: the number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles every 2 years.

AI has BROKEN this law.

AI’s compute demand has grown at DOUBLE the rate of Moore's Law over the last 10 years.

Are we in a currency confidence crisis?

Today, gold futures officially hit a RECORD $4,000/oz, now up +100% in 19 months.

The last time gold DOUBLED in under 2 years was in the 1970s after the historic "Nixon Shock."

What's happening? Let us explain.

(a thread) Today, our long-time target of $4,000/oz was crossed by gold futures.

In February 2024, gold hit $2,000/oz in what seemed to be a historic move.

19 months later, gold prices have doubled in their fastest move since the 1970s.

This is a crucial point to understand.

What is happening?

The S&P 500 is up +40% in 6 months, Gold is nearing $4,000/oz, and Bitcoin hit a record $2.5 TRILLION market cap.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar is set for its WORST year since 1973.

Are markets THAT strong or is the US Dollar just crashing?

(a thread) Yesterday, on a casual Saturday night, Bitcoin surged to $125,000, a new all time high.

This makes Bitcoin worth a record $2.5 trillion.

Meanwhile, gold has hit 40 record highs in 2025 and is now worth a whopping $26.3 TRILLION.

That's more than 10 TIMES the value of Bitcoin.

The US government shutdown:

For the first time since 2018, the US is about to enter a government shutdown and investors are bracing for it.

This would furlough 750,000 workers PER DAY, costing ~$400M in daily compensation.

What does it all mean? Let us explain.

(a thread) The last time we entered a government shutdown was in December 2018, in Trump's 1st term.

The shutdown lasted 35 days, making it the longest government shutdown in US history.

The average length of a shutdown is 8 days and its implications spread further when it lasts longer.

This is insane:

As the record run in gold accelerates, US gold reserves just exceeded $1 TRILLION for the first time in history.

The US now holds ~2.4 TIMES more gold than Germany, the 2nd-largest holder in the world.

What is gold telling us? Let us explain.

(a thread) Today's move puts gold up +44% year-to-date.

This means gold is now up 3.5 TIMES more than the S&P 500 during one of its strongest bull runs ever.

Historically, gold falls when stocks rise as it's a "safe haven" asset.

However, the EXACT opposite situation is happening now.

An affordability nightmare:

It would take a -38% drop in home prices OR a +60% JUMP in household income JUST for affordability to go back to 2019 levels.

You must now make ~$113,000/year to afford the MEDIAN home in the US.

Will housing ever be affordable again?

(a thread) According to Fannie Mae calculations, affordability is at record lows for the US housing market.

Just for housing affordability to return to 2019 levels, mortgage rates would need to fall ~415 basis points.

The combination of inflation and higher rates has been catastrophic.

Crypto adoption is about to SURGE:

A new Bank of America survey shows 75% of investors have ZERO exposure to crypto.

Now, US lawmakers are requesting the SEC implements President Trump's Executive Order allowing 401(K)s to BUY crypto.

What's next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Below is a letter that was sent by lawmakers to the SEC this week.

It asks the SEC to begin opening up 401(K) plans to crypto "swiftly."

This opens ~$10 TRILLION worth of capital, which is 2.5 TIMES the current market cap of crypto.

What is happening in Argentina?

In 24 hours, Argentina's stock market COLLAPSED -10%, with the Argentine Peso now down -99% in 10 years.

Today, the Trump Administration offered a "lifeline" to Argentina, sending stocks surging +8%.

Can Argentina be saved?

(a thread) Just 2 hours ago, US Treasury Secretary Bessent made this post:

He said "all options for stabilization are on the table" for Argentina.

This may include swap lines, direct currency purchases, and purchases of USD denominated government debt.

But, how did they end up here?

Tariff revenue is SKYROCKETING:

The US is now collecting a record $350 BILLION in annualized tariff revenue.

This marks a +355% increase compared to 2024, all as the S&P 500 has added +$16 TRILLION since April 2025.

What's coming next? Let us explain.

(a thread) Just to put this all in perspective:

The US is now collecting tariffs that are equal to 18% of household income taxes.

Prior to 2025, this percentage averaged ~4% and has not crossed above 10% in 80+ years.

Not even Trump Trade War 1.0 saw levels this high.

The H1-B Visa Situation:

President Trump just raised the cost of an H-1B Visa to $100,000 PER YEAR, a +1,000% increase.

The US issues ~85,000 new H-1B Visas per year, which will now cost $8.5 BILLION/year.

What are the economic implications? Let us explain.

(a thread) An H-1B visa allows US employers to hire foreign workers in specialty occupations.

The initial Executive Order raised the cost of an H-1B visa to $100,000 for new AND existing holders.

The implications are MASSIVE.

For example, take a look at the top 15 H-1B visa employers.

Rate cuts are already being felt:

US mortgage demand just surged +29.7% over last week as Fed rate cuts began.

Refinance applications jumped +58% in ONE WEEK to levels not seen since the 2020 pandemic.

Will affordability finally improve? Not yet, here's why.

(a thread) Here's a graph comparing mortgage rates and demand.

US mortgage rates have declined sharply since Fed rate cut discussions began.

Meanwhile, refinance and purchase demand is up to levels not seen since April 2022.

Not even September 2024's 50 bps rate cut saw this happen.