Something is seriously wrong here:

For the first time in history, a NEW home in the US costs $33,500 LESS than an EXISTING home, per Reventure.

Not even June 2005 saw such a large gap, right before the 2008 Financial Crisis.

What is happening? Let us explain.

(a thread) It all stems back to March 2020, when the Fed implemented their largest rate cut in history.

This led to the average rate on a 30Y Mortgage felling to a record low of 2.65%.

There was never a cheaper time in history to take a loan or refinance your mortgage than in 2021.

The Trump-Putin meeting has ended:

At 4:46 AM ET, Trump published a statement saying ALL parties want to "go directly to a Peace Agreement."

The implications of a direct peace agreement would be MASSIVE.

Is Trump about to end Europe's deadliest war since WW2?

(a thread) The Alaska meeting was expected to be ONLY between Putin and Trump.

However, Trump says Zelensky was also spoken with in a "late night call" along with EU leaders, including the NATO Secretary General.

This has led to a meeting on Monday and Zelensky is coming to the US.

This is unprecedented:

Core CPI inflation is back above +3% and PPI inflation is at its hottest since March 2022.

Meanwhile, President Trump is calling for a 300 BASIS POINT rate cut and is set to replace Fed Chair Powell.

Are you ready for what's next?

(a thread) This week's inflation data was not ideal.

Core CPI inflation is now up to 3.1% and both headline and Core PPI inflation are above 3.0%.

As seen in the below chart, per Zerohedge, PPI inflation is clearly re-accelerating.

But, here's where it gets even more interesting.

This is absolutely insane:

US tariff revenue surged +300% in July 2025, bringing in a record $29.6 billion in ONE month.

At this pace, tariff revenue could exceed $350 billion PER YEAR through President Trump's term.

What does it all mean? Let us explain.

(a thread) Take a look a Trump Trade War 1.0 vs 2.0:

In Trump's first trade war, there was not a single month with tariff revenue above $10 billion.

The July 2025 figures make Trump's first trade war seem like a rounding error.

Clearly, if sustained, this will have massive implications.

What just happened?

Last night, news emerged of a "trade deal" that has never happened before.

Nvidia and AMD agreed with Trump to provide the US with 15% of REVENUE from chip sales in China to remove export controls.

Corporations are panicking. Here's why.

(a thread) This deal marks a new era for American businesses.

On Friday, the US Commerce department started issuing H20 export licenses again, but no one knew why.

It came just 2 days after Nvidia CEO Huang met with President Trump.

We now know exactly why things "quietly" changed.

Ethereum is making HISTORY:

We are currently witnessing one of the LARGEST short squeezes in crypto history.

Ethereum has added +$150 BILLION in market cap since July 1st, days after net SHORT exposure hit record highs.

What's happening? Let us explain.

(a thread) Take a look at the chart below:

Heading into July, net leverage shorts on Ethereum hit a record high, per Zerohedge.

In fact, net short exposure was ~25% ABOVE levels seen in February 2025.

As a result, Ethereum has surged +70% in less than one month.

But that's not all.

What is happening in Japan?

Treasury yields in Japan have silently surged to new RECORD highs, with the 30Y Yield hitting 3.20% today.

Japan's 30Y government bonds have LOST -45% of their value since 2019.

Is it too late for Japan to rescue its economy?

(a thread) The collapse of Japan's bond market has been incredibly telling.

In fact, we are beginning to see some similarities in the US as deficit spending accelerates.

It almost seems like investors have lost confidence in the Japanese government's ability to pay down debt.

This is not a "normal."

We have reached a point where Bitcoin is moving in a literal STRAIGHT-LINE higher.

Rates are rising, the USD is down -11% in 6 months, and crypto is up +$1 TRILLION in 3 months.

What's happening? Bitcoin has entered "crisis mode."

(a thread) Bitcoin has reached a point where it is quite literally making new all time highs multiple times a day.

Since the US House passed President Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" on July 3rd, Bitcoin is up +$15,000.

If the surge in gold prices didn't alert you, Bitcoin should.

Are you paying attention?

Bitcoin is now up +55% since its April 2025 low, hitting a RECORD $115,000.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar just had its WORST start to a year since 1973, falling nearly -11% in 6 months.

This is not a coincidence. Let us explain.

(a thread) Heading into April 2025, Bitcoin was moving in a straight-line lower on trade war fears.

On April 9th, tariffs were delayed for 90 days and Bitcoin bottomed.

On April 20th, the real rally began, without any major news, days after the delay.

So, what really happened here?

The crisis continues:

Since the debt ceiling was raised on July 3rd, US debt is now up $410 BILLION in 2 days.

This comes after the US Treasury ended "extraordinary measures," raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion.

We are in the midst of the US' largest crisis.

(a thread) After hitting the debt limit of $36.1 trillion in January 2025, the Treasury began “extraordinary measures” to conserve cash.

Then, last week, President Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" was signed into law.

This raised the debt ceiling from $36.1 trillion to $41.1 trillion.

It's official:

President Trump is now calling for the first 300+ basis point interest rate cut in US history.

This would be 3 TIMES larger than the 100 bps cut on March 15th, 2020, the largest in history.

So, what happens if the Fed does this? Let us explain.

(a thread) First, President Trump mentions that higher rates are costing the US more money on interest expense.

At a high level, this is true.

Annual interest expense on US debt has reached $1.2 TRILLION over the last 12 months.

The US is now paying $3.3 BILLION in interest per day.

Iran's response has begun:

After US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran just attacked US military bases in Qatar and Iraq.

Meanwhile, oil prices just CRASHED over -6% on the news.

Why? Markets are saying EVERYTHING you need to know. Let us explain.

(a thread) Iranian media just announced that Iran has launched operation "Annunciation of Victory."

Iran's Armed Forces said they will not leave any attack on Iran unanswered.

This was Iran's first response to the US since the 3 strikes conducted by the US Airforce this weekend.

MAJOR news from Iran:

Iran's parliament officially approves CLOSING the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since 1972.

If approved by Iran's top security body, shipments of 20+ MILLION barrels of oil PER DAY will be impacted.

What's next? Let us explain.

(a thread) The Strait of Hormuz, between Oman and Iran, connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

This body of water controls ~20% of the world’s petroleum liquids consumption.

In other words, ONE FIFTH of global oil consumption flows through here EVERY DAY.

What is happening in Japan?

In 45 days, Japan's 30Y Government Bond Yield rose a MASSIVE +100 basis points, to a record 3.20%.

Over $500 BILLION worth of "safe" 40Y Japanese Government Bonds have lost 20%+ in 6 weeks.

Is Japan's bond market imploding?

(a thread) What's happening in Japan is not "normal."

Japan's 40Y government bond that was yielding ~1.3% two years ago is now yielding 3.5%.

As yields continue to surge, inflation has begun to rebound and Japan's economy is decline.

It appears Japan is entering a recession.

The trade war is back:

After a brief pause, Trump just threatened 50% tariffs on the EU beginning June 1st and 25% tariffs on Apple.

In 5 days, the S&P 500 has erased -$1.5 trillion of market cap.

What's next? Here's why you NEED to watch the bond market.

(a thread) First, at 7:19 AM ET today, President Trump made the below post.

As Apple, $AAPL, has moved iPhone production to India, Trump said this was not acceptable.

Trump says iPhones must be made in the USA or face tariffs of at least 25%.

The S&P 500 to 5820 on this news.

What just happened?

At 1:00 PM ET, the S&P 500 fell nearly -80 points in 30 minutes without any major "news."

What actually happened was a weak 20Y Bond Auction which sent US Treasury Yields soaring.

Investors MUST watch yields here. Let us explain.

(a thread) The US frequently conducts bond auctions, where investors can buy US Treasuries (debt).

Today, the US conducted a $16B auction of 20Y Bonds.

Typically, these auctions happen with minimal impact on markets.

However, today was different which sent yields soaring.

It's official:

For the first time in history, Moody's has downgraded the United States' credit rating.

Moody's cites concerns over soaring US debt levels with interest on US debt set to hit 30% of REVENUE by 2035.

What does it all mean? Let us explain.

(a thread) This isn't the first time the US has seen a credit rating downgrade.

In 2011, S&P downgraded the US' credit rating from AAA to AA+.

As seen below, the downgrade came with an ~8% drop in the S&P 500 in 2 months.

The 10Y Yield fell as much as ~35% within the first 2 months.

Gold won't stop.

Gold is surging again, now trading above $3,300/oz, even as the S&P 500 is up +17% from its April 7th low.

Since 2020, the gold ETF, $GLD, has now OUTPERFORMED the S&P 500 by 35 percentage points.

Are you still watching gold?

(a thread) Heading into 2025, $GLD was underperforming the S&P 500 since 2020 by ~10%.

However, as uncertainty has risen, $GLD is now up +109% since 2020 compared to +74% in the S&P 500.

But, why are gold prices surging even as the market recovers?

Uncertainty remains the answer.

This is insane:

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway just announced they now hold a record $348 BILLION in cash.

Since 2022, Buffett's cash balance is up $239 BILLION and he has net SOLD stocks for 10-straight quarters.

What does Warren Buffett see here?

(a thread) Below is Berkshire Hathaway's balance sheet:

They now hold $305.5 BILLION of US Treasury Bills and $36.9 billion of cash in their insurance and other business.

In their Railroad, Utilities and Energy business, they hold another ~$5.3 billion of cash.

This is unprecedented.

The Fed's worst nightmare just got worse:

New data showed that US GDP CONTRATCTED by -0.3% in Q1 2025, while +0.3% growth was expected.

To make things worse, the GDP Price Index surged to +3.7%, its highest since August 2023.

What does Powell do now?

(a thread) Annualized US GDP growth came in at -0.3% this morning, below expectations of +0.3%.

This marks the first negative reading since Q2 2022.

Just 4 months ago, GDP was expected to grow by over 3% in Q1 2025.

We have seen a MASSIVE shift in US economic output.

Where are the trade deals?

The S&P 500 has now erased -$2.5 TRILLION since the April 9th high after the 90-day tariff "pause."

While markets await trade deals, Japan just said they "won't just keep conceding" in US tariff talks.

Here's what's happening.

(a thread) On April 16th, Bloomberg published the below article claiming that trade negotiations with Japan are underway.

Trump Administration officials claimed trade deals were being discussed with 50+ countries.

Markets rallied sharply on this news over the last 5-10 days.