Why is this not getting more attention?

US credit card serious delinquency rates for subprime borrowers just hit ~22%, the highest since 2010.

Meanwhile, delinquency rates on commercial office loans are now at 11%, ABOVE the 2012 peak.

We are in a debt crisis.

(a thread) To start, here's a chart of US credit card serious delinquency rates for subprime borrowers.

Subprime credit card delinquencies have risen 7 percentage points in just ~15 months.

These borrowers reflect a WHOPPING ~23% of the consumer credit market, according to Fed data.

This is absolutely insane:

Heading into 2025, there are now 100 TIMES more assets in leveraged long funds than leveraged short funds.

Over the last 8 weeks, this ratio has DOUBLED, exceeding the record high set in December 2021.

Is the bull trade too crowded?

(a thread) Here's a chart showing the ratio of assets in leveraged long to short funds.

Assets in US leveraged ETF reached a record ~$120 BILLION.

December 2021 was the last time the bull trade was this crowded.

So, what happened the last time the bull trade was this crowded?

2024 was BRUTAL for homebuyers:

For the first time since 2005, US new home prices became CHEAPER than existing home prices.

In fact, only ~4 million existing homes were sold in 2024, the lowest since 1995.

Here are Apollo's shocking housing market facts into 2025.

(a thread) 1. US homes are getting smaller: The size of new homes being built has declined by 12% since 2016

The median new home is now ~2,175 square feet after nearing as high as 2,500 square feet in 2016.

After years of elevated inflation, people can't afford bigger homes anymore.

Something doesn't add up here:

MicroStrategy, $MSTR, has been known as the most popular "levered" #Bitcoin play of the year.

Meanwhile, over the last month Bitcoin has gained +2% while $MSTR is currently down nearly -50%.

What is happening? Let us explain.

(a thread) Here's a comparison of $MSTR vs #Bitcoin since November 20th.

Bitcoin has traded almost completely flat on a net basis, even after rising as much as +16%.

Meanwhile, $MSTR is down ~36% and continues to widen the gap between the two assets.

Why is this happening?

WOW.

US equity funds saw a -$35.3 BILLION net outflow last week, the largest weekly outflow since December 2022.

This is a sharp contrast to the ~$14 billion of weekly net INFLOWS seen since Fed interest rate cuts began.

What does this mean as we head into 2025?

(a thread) Here's a chart showing weekly flows for US equity funds in 2024.

There have only been a handful of weeks with net outflows as the S&P 500 hit 57 all-time highs in 2024.

2 weeks ago, US equity funds saw a record $62.5 billion of net inflows.

Last week marked a clear shift.

China's economy is rapidly slowing:

While treasury yields in the United States hit new 7-month highs, China's 10-year yield just hit a new RECORD low.

In fact, China's 10-year government bond yield has now HALVED since January 2024.

What is happening in China?

(a thread) China’s $11 trillion government bond market has moved into uncharted territory.

As their government rolls out widespread stimulus, yields are hitting record lows.

The gap between yields in Japan and China are now at a record low of just ~70 basis points.

China is in trouble.

It's official:

The 10-year note yield is now up 100 basis points since the "Fed pivot" began in September.

In other words, while the Fed has CUT rates by 100 bps, rates in the market have RISEN by 100 bps.

Is this the biggest market to Fed disconnect in history?

(a thread) Since Fed rate cuts began in September, the 10-year note yield has risen from 3.60% to 4.60%.

This puts yields at their highest since May 2024, even as the Fed aggressively cuts rates.

Rates are rising after the Fed began cuts with a 50 bps cut for the first time since 2008.

Did the Santa Rally just begin?

The 7 trading day period beginning on Christmas Eve is one of the S&P 500's strongest periods, returning +1.3% on average.

Yesterday alone, the S&P 500 closed +1.1% higher and is back above 6,000.

Here's what you need to know.

(a thread) Here's a chart with S&P 500 returns over time in the December 24th to 31st period.

On average, the S&P 500 has returned +1.3% during this week.

Only 2015, 2016 and 2023 have seen negative returns in this period since 2009.

History suggests that a Santa Clause rally has begun.

Michael Saylor is going all-in:

MicroStrategy, $MSTR, just said that they want to raise authorized share count by 10 BILLION.

They currently have 330 million shares outstanding, meaning this could increase share count by 3,000%.

What does this mean? Let us explain.

(a thread) Here's the filing MicroStrategy just made with the SEC.

Total share could would rise from 330 million to 10.33 BILLION if it is approved.

Many are calling this dilutive while others are saying this is the start of a major run for $MSTR.

Let's break it all down here.

2025 is going to be a wild year.

Today, Apollo published their list of biggest market risks for 2025.

Between potential Fed rate HIKES, a recession in China, and a 40% chance of the 10Y note yield at 5.0%, 2025 will be volatile.

Here's a breakdown of their risks.

(a thread) 1. Tariffs coming: 90% chance

From a potential 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico to a 100% tariff on BRICS countries, there are a lot of unknowns.

The GDP impact of tariffs is estimated to be -1.7%, but tax cuts are expected to add +2.4% to GDP.

This is a MAJOR headwind.

Panic selling has returned:

US equity funds posted $50.2 BILLION of outflows in the week ending December 18th, the largest since September 2009.

Meanwhile, the volatility index, $VIX, posted its 2nd largest daily gain in history.

Here's what you need to know.

(a thread) In the week ending December 18th, on Wednesday when the Fed cut rates, panic selling returned.

Large-cap funds saw $20.9 billion of outflows, ending a 6-week streak of inflows.

Outflows in small-cap, multi-cap and mid-cap funds were $5.4 billion, $3.9 billion and $2.9 billion.

History will be made today:

As the Nasdaq is down over -6% from its high in just 5 days, there are a MASSIVE amount of options expiring today.

In fact, a record $6.6 TRILLION worth of options are expiring, based on notional value.

What does this mean exactly?

(a thread) Total notional value refers to the to the combined value of all the underlying assets that a set of options contracts controls.

Some estimates put it as high as $6.6 TRILLION today.

Most of these options will expire worthless, but tons of volatility should be expected.

Apollo with another HUGE call today:

Not only does Apollo see less rate cuts in 2025, but they are now calling for potential rate HIKES.

Today, Apollo officially said they see a 40% chance of rate HIKES returning in 2025.

Has the "Fed pivot" been canceled again?

(a thread) The Fed officially made their 3rd interest rate cut of 2024 for 25 basis points.

This marks a total of 100 basis points of rate cuts in 2024 as inflation reaccelerates.

With all key metrics of inflation nearing or above 3%, a new question arises.

Are rate hikes coming back?

This is absolutely insane.

Backlash on X just crushed a BIPARTISAN spending bill to "avoid" a US government shut down.

This bill was set to cost US taxpayers $380 BILLION to keep the government open until March 14th.

What is this bill and what just happened?

(a thread) Let us begin by stating that this spending bill is 1,547 PAGES long.

We spent hours combing through it to explain the key highlights.

In this thread, we will show how the bill could have been condensed to just 10 pages.

This bill would cost taxpayers ~$5 billion PER DAY.

What just happened?

The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points which is exactly what 97% of market participants wanted.

But, the S&P 500 just posted its largest post-Fed drop since March 2020, erasing $1.8 TRILLION of market cap.

Why? Let us explain.

(a thread) Going into the Fed decision, there was a 97% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points.

Their 25 basis point cut marked 100 basis points of cuts in 2024, "continuing" the Fed pivot.

However, markets price-in Fed decisions well before they are announced.

Why is no one talking about this?

The 10-year note yield is now up +85 basis points since the "Fed pivot" began.

Meanwhile, the Fed is setting up for another rate cut for a total of 100 basis points of cuts in 2024.

The bond market is literally fighting the Fed.

(a thread) Since the "Fed pivot" began in September, the popular bond-tracking ETF $TLT is down ~11%.

To put this into perspective, an 11% move in ONE YEAR is considered big for $TLT, let alone 3 months.

Bond prices have moved in a literal straight line lower since rate cuts began.

Apollo with a HUGE call this morning:

For the first time since the "Fed pivot" began, Apollo has officially declared inflation back on the rise.

They warn of a potential repeat the 1970s as the Fed cuts rates into rising inflation.

Here's what you need to know.

(a thread) Fed and market-implied measures of inflation are now all above the Fed’s 2% target.

We are at risk of a potential 1970s-style rebound in inflation into 2025/2026.

Apollo says the probability of the Fed RAISING interest rates in 2025 is now rising.

What is happening here?

As stocks hit all-time highs, corporate executives are cashing-out of their stocks at RECORD levels.

In fact, there are now nearly 6 TIMES more insider sellers than buyers.

Why are insiders cashing out of the "strongest" market in history?

(a thread) Here's a chart showing the ratio of insider sellers to buyers over time.

Not even the onset to the 2008 Financial Crisis saw insider stock sales as high as they are right now.

For every insider buyer, there are now ~6 insider sellers.

Are corporate executives calling a top?

China is panicking:

Today, China announced that WIDESPREAD economic stimulus is coming in 2025, including raising their deficit.

Currently, parts of China's real estate sector are down -80% from their high and at 2008 levels.

Is China entering a recession?

(a thread) To put things into perspective, China's HY real estate sector entered 2024 down -82% in just 2.5 years.

Meanwhile, one of China's largest property developers, Evergrande, filed Chapter 15 bankruptcy.

Real estate demand in China collapsed with the onset of deflation.

You can't make this up:

After the suspected United Healthcare CEO shooter Luigi Mangione was captured, "Luigi Coin" jumped +35,000%.

Luigi Coin hit a market cap of $55 MILLION with $100 million+ in volume over the last 24 hours.

What part of the cycle is this?

(a thread) You often see this chart outlining different stages of market excitement or bubbles.

Over the last 2 years, just about every risky asset has seen massive gains.

Since October 2023, the S&P 500 is nearing a 50% gain.

Rarely in history have we ever seen a 50% gain in 14 months.

Something doesn't add up here:

Labor market data is "strong" and all metrics of core inflation in the US are RISING.

Yet, the Fed is set for their THIRD rate cut of 2024 after saying they are not "in a hurry" to cut rates.

Could Fed rate HIKES return in 2025?

(a thread) Core inflation says it all.

Core PPI, CPI and PCE inflation are ALL back on the rise for the first time in over 2 years.

1-month annualized PCE inflation is nearing 4% again and 3-month annualized PCE inflation is breaking 3%.

Inflation could hit DOUBLE the Fed's 2% target.