We now know Trump's TOP economic priority:

For weeks, President Trump said there would be NO tariff delay, even as stocks erased $12+ TRILLION.

Then, the bond market BROKE and a 90-day tariff pause was implemented 12 hours later.

Keep watching bonds.

(a thread) Prior to the April 2nd "reciprocal tariffs," the 10-year note yield was falling in a straight line lower.

This meant the trade war could continue because rates were falling.

However, as the basis trade unwound due to volatility, the 10-year note yield surged +65 bps to 4.50%.

The bond market just BROKE:

In just 3 days, the 10Y Note Yield surged 60 basis points while the S&P 500 fell -8%.

This marks the LARGEST 3-day increase since 1982 and one of the largest divergences in history.

What happened? The basis trade broke.

(a thread) More specifically, something broke last night.

Between 7 PM ET and 12 AM ET, the 10-year note yield surged ANOTHER +25 basis points.

The 30-year note yield jumped above 5.00% even as stock market futures collapsed.

This is extremely unusual price action, something broke.

The BULL trap:

We just witnessed the biggest bull trap of 2025 with the S&P 500 erasing a ~4.5% rally in ~3 hours.

Between 10:30 AM ET and 3:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 erased -$2.3 TRILLION of market cap.

Bull traps are TEXTBOOK signs of a bear market.

(a thread) The day began with an ALL GREEN heat map pushing the S&P 500 toward 5300.

This put the index nearly +450 points ABOVE levels seen at yesterday's low.

However, we continued to reiterate that it simply did NOT make sense.

The trade war only got worse, but stocks were rising.

The LESSON investors learned today:

At 10:15 AM ET, US stocks swung $7 TRILLION in 30 minutes on a "fake" tariff deal headline.

While the move was undone, we obtained KEY information about the current state of the market.

Here's what you need to know.

(a thread) Beginning with some background:

At around 10:15 AM ET, it was reported that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs.

The S&P 500 rose +400 POINTS in a matter of minutes before the White House called this "fake news."

Then, the S&P 500 erased -300 points of that rally.

The free fall continues:

Today's drop in US stock market futures puts S&P 500 futures down -22% and in bear market territory.

The US stock market has now erased an average of $400 billion PER TRADING DAY for 32-straight days.

Is it time to BUY stocks yet?

(a thread) Exactly 32 trading days ago, the S&P 500 hit a new all time high of 6147.

In the below timeline, we explain how the S&P 500 has erased over 1,300 points in 32 trading days.

This is a March 2020-style decline and sentiment has reach some of its most bearish levels in history.

Did the White House compute "reciprocal tariffs" incorrectly?

New Trump tariffs are claiming to raise $3+ trillion over 10 years.

According to AEI, the formula used to calculate tariffs levied on the US was INFLATED by up to 400%.

Here's the breakdown.

(a thread) At the April 2nd "Liberation Day" announcement, President Trump held up a poster with reciprocal tariffs.

The formula used to compute these tariffs seemed rather simple.

Trump said the US was simply charging foreign countries 50% of what they are charging the US.

It's "reciprocal tariffs on reciprocal tariffs" week:

After imposing tariffs on 185 countries at ONCE, we expect retaliation this week.

The US stock market has lost $11.1 TRILLION in 44 trading days, equivalent to ~38% of US GDP.

Here's what you need to know.

(a thread) Below is a full breakdown of the "reciprocal tariffs" announced by President Trump on April 2nd.

Goldman Sachs sees an 18.8 percentage point increase in tariffs after the April 2nd announcement.

This includes at 47.5 percentage point increase on China.

This is historic.

This is truly insane:

On February 20, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon sold $234 million worth of $JPM stock.

On February 22, Warren Buffett disclosed a record $334 BILLION cash balance.

30 trading days later, the Nasdaq 100 crashed -24%.

How did they know?

(a thread) Jamie Dimon's purchases and sales of $JPM have been widely watched over the years.

They are also generally regarded as a "leading indicator" for the broader market.

Since Dimon sold, $JPM has fallen over -25% in the sharpest drop since 2022.

How did he know yet again?

The hedge fund MASS exodus:

On Thursday ALONE, hedge funds sold $40 BILLION of stocks in their largest daily selling spree since 2010.

Short sales exceeded longs by 3 TIMES, with North American stocks accounting for 75% of volume.

Is "capitulation" near?

(a thread) While hedge funds ran to the exit, retail investors bought like never before.

According to JP Morgan, retail investors bought $4.7 billion of stocks on Thursday.

This is the largest daily purchase by retail investors since 2015.

Positioning has rarely been this polarized.

It's official:

The Nasdaq 100 is in a bear market following a -6% drop today, the largest drop since March 2020.

US stocks have now erased a massive -$11 TRILLION since February 19th with recession odds ABOVE 60%.

What does it all mean? Let us explain.

(a thread) As of today's close, we now have multiple major market indices in bear market territory, including:

1. Nasdaq 100
2. Russell 2000
3. Nikkei 225
4. Magnificent 7

The S&P 500 fell over 10% in 2 days for the 7th time in history.

This was last seen in 2020, 2008, and 1997.

The "World War 3" of Trade Wars Has Begun:

Americans are waking up to the first MAJOR tariff retaliation against President Trump.

China has announced 34% tariffs on ALL US goods with the S&P 500's 2-day losses now at -$3.5 TRILLION.

Here's what just happened.

(a thread) This was the move that we all knew was coming, but wanted to pretend it wasn't.

China has announced that ALL US imports will be subject to this 34% tariff.

And, they added 11 American companies to their list of "unreliable entities" and 16 to their "export control" list.

It's official:

After "Liberation Day," the Russell 2000 has closed in BEAR market territory for the first time since 2022.

Over the last 24 hours, S&P 500 stocks have erased -$120 billion PER HOUR for a total of -$2.9 trillion.

What's next? Let us explain.

(a thread) The last 24 hours:

On April 2nd, we saw stocks rally into the market's close as investors anticipated lighter tariff announcements.

After the 10% baseline tariff was announced, stocks rallied.

However, stocks collapsed minutes later as more reciprocal tariffs were read off.

We just witnessed history:

After "Liberation Day" tariffs, the weighted-average US tariff rate has jumped to a whopping 29%.

Not even the Smoot-Hawley Act during the 1930s Great Depression saw tariff rates this high.

Are you ready for what's next?

(a thread) If it wasn't already clear to you, it should be clear now:

Markets are bracing for a recession.

This morning, oil prices are down nearly -7% as investors price-in a collapse in global demand.

If these tariffs are implemented long-term, we could see oil prices fall 40%+.

"Reciprocal tariffs" are officially HERE:

President Trump just announced tariffs on 185 countries AT ONCE, one of the largest tariffs in US history.

S&P 500 futures erased -$2 TRILLION of market cap in under 15 minutes.

What just happened? Let us explain.

(a thread) The announcement began with a WSJ report that a 10% baseline tariff would be imposed by the US.

While this was true, markets took it as ALL reciprocal tariffs were 10%.

However, this quickly changed as President Trump began outlining many other tariffs, well above 10%.

BREAKING: The White House publishes an even larger list of US tariffs than initially shown at the "Make America Wealth Again Event."

We have included the full list in the thread below with ALL countries worldwide being tariffed. List 2 of "US Reciprocal Tariffs."

Yesterday marked one of our strongest ends to a quarter yet:

Throughout Q1 2025, we increased short exposure into most rallies of 3% or more on the basis of WEAKER sentiment.

This concluded with a large PUT position taken at on March 26th when the S&P 500 traded at 5780.

As shown below, one of our premium members was able to capitalize on a -280 POINT drawdown in 4 trading days.

With the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index now 70% above 2008 levels, Q2 2025 is going to be incredibly volatile.

Furthermore, most down days have come with ORDERLY selling, so far.

We have NOT seen capitulation yet. Below is the FIRST alert we made for our premium members on March 26th.

We took shorts in the S&P 500 at 5776 and called for a drop into 5650.

Within a matter of hours, the S&P 500 had fallen into our target.

Subscribe to access our work:

thekobeissiletter.com/subscribe

Markets are pricing-in a recession:

Over the last 11 weeks, the 10-year note yield has fallen 65 basis points in a massive reversal.

Meanwhile, 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have risen to 4%+.

Rates are FALLING while inflation is RISING.

(a thread) The start of President Trump's trade war came with a top in the 10-year note yield.

Throughout the course of the last 2 months, rates have fallen as markets priced in a recession.

The 25% auto tariff announcement marked the most recent lower high in yields.

This is important.

This has NEVER happened in history:

The US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index is now ~25% ABOVE the Trump Trade War 1.0 high.

The S&P 500 is down -10.5% in 6 weeks and in correction territory, erasing -$3 TRILLION in 4 trading days.

Here's what's coming next.

(a thread) On February 19th, the S&P 500 hit a new all time high of 6147.

The selloff accelerated into March when President Trump said he was "not watching the market."

On March 13th, a relief rally led into last week's 25% auto tariff announcement.

Today, we are back in a correction.

It's officially "reciprocal tariff" week:

President Trump has called Wednesday "Liberation Day" with 20%+ tariffs coming on up to 25+ countries.

US tariffs will impact $1.5+ TRILLION worth of imports by the end of April.

Here's what you need to know.

(a thread) President Trump has been discussing this Wednesday, April 2nd, for weeks.

This is a day that he has named "Liberation Day" where widespread new tariffs are coming.

We believe April 2nd will be the biggest escalation of the trade war to date.

Markets are in for a wild week.

The modern day gold rush:

Gold prices are now up +70% in 16 months with a new record market cap of $20.75 trillion.

In fact, gold is worth $1.25 trillion MORE than the COMBINED value of the remaining top 10 most valuable assets.

What is gold telling us?

(a thread) It is incredible to think that in October 2023, gold was trading as low as $1,820/oz.

This week, we saw gold break above $3,100/oz for the first time in history.

Gold is now up +16% YTD while the S&P 500 is down nearly 10% from its all time.

So, what is gold telling us?

This is absolutely insane:

From Wednesday to Friday, the S&P 500 lost -$100 billion PER trading hour for a total of -$2 TRILLION.

Then, after the market closed on Friday, S&P 500 futures erased ANOTHER -$120 billion in minutes.

What happened? Let us explain.

(a thread) Let's begin with a brief timeline.

The S&P 500 bottomed on March 13th, at 5505, as President Trump's tariff headlines quieted down.

Through March 26th, tariff headlines were minimal and the S&P 500 rose +5%.

However, as soon as 25% auto tariffs arose, the rally was undone.