The Kobeissi Letter Profile picture
Apr 16 7 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
US national debt just hit a record $31.5 trillion, up over $8 trillion since 2020.

Total federal debt per household is now $240,000.

We now have a higher Debt/GDP ratio than post-World War 2, at 120%.

Here are some important facts about US national debt.

(a thread)

1/7
US national debt is now over 120% of GDP, which was $26.1 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2022.

In 2020, the Debt/GDP ratio hit a record 135% as the government passed over $4 trillion in stimulus.

By comparison, Debt/GDP after WW2 hit 114%.

The US has a TON of debt.

2/7 Image
21.8% of the public debt, or $6.9 trillion, is owned by the federal government itself.

This includes Medicare, specialized funds and retirement programs.

9.2% of US debt belongs to the Social Security program.

A program that may run out of money holds ~10% of our debt.

3/7 Image
Today, the Federal Reserve System is the largest holder of US debt.

After their massive balance sheet expansion during the pandemic, the Fed now owns ~20% of US debt.

At its peak in April 2022, the Fed held more than $6.25 trillion in US debt.

This was a historic move.

4/7 Image
Meanwhile, servicing US debt is one of the government's biggest expenses.

Net interest payments on the debt are estimated to total $396 billion this fiscal year, or 6.8% of all federal outlays.

Interest expense since 2010 has totaled over $3 trillion.

5/7 Image
Despite record high interest, rates on US debt are still at historic lows.

While this seems like good news, rates are rising as the Fed attempts to cool inflation.

Currently, rates on US debt are at ~2%, while in the 1990s, it was ~9%.

Interest expense is rising quickly.

6/7 Image
The US deficit is on track to hit $3 trillion by 2033 while Debt/GDP will hit 200% by 2046.

According to the US Treasury, “the rise in Debt/GDP indicates current fiscal policy is unsustainable.”

The debt crisis is here.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for more as this develops.

7/7

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More from @KobeissiLetter

Apr 18
Apple announced a savings account paying 4.15% per year.

Meanwhile, the average savings account pays just 0.35% per year.

Apple entering banking is just the next part of the banking crisis.

Technology and the banking crisis have people questioning the system.

(a thread)

1/8
Traditional banks have paid close to 0% interest for years now.

Here's a comparison of savings rates at the largest banks in the US.

When we reached out to large banks asking why savings rates are so low, the most common response was:

"We have a better user experience."

2/8 Image
Now you have Apple, the world's leader in creating a "better user experience," paying 4.15% interest.

There are currently over 2 billion active Apple devisers in use.

Apple will leverage its network and engineering expertise to create an even more seamless user experience.

3/8 Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 15
US Government Deficit/Surplus, by Year:

- 1960: -$3 billion
- 1970: -$3 billion
- 1980: -$70 billion
- 1985: -$210 billion
- 1990: -$220 billion
- 1995: -$160 billion
- 2000: +$240 billion
- 2005: -$320 billion
- 2010: -$1.3 trillion
- 2015: -$440 billion
- 2020: -$3.2 trillion… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Just in 2023 so far, the US government has a larger Federal deficit than 1900 to 1980 combined and inflation adjusted.

The Federal deficit in 2020, after $4 trillion in stimulus was printed, was 220% larger than 2009 after bank bailouts.

Alarming is an understatement. Image
Here's where all the money is going.

At the current pace, we will pass $50 trillion in US debt within the next 10 years.

The interest expense on this debt will be over $1 trillion per year, or 25% of the government's current budget.

Interest expense will exceed tax revenue. Image
Read 4 tweets
Apr 12
San Francisco is dealing with a major office vacancy issue.

The city just hit a 29.5% vacancy rate, the highest ever recorded.

Office vacancies are up by ~7x since the start of 2020.

San Francisco is showing tons of warnings signs for commercial real estate.

(a thread)

1/10
Office vacancy rates in San Francisco have skyrocketed since the pandemic.

Even after the Dot-com bubble, vacancies did not cross 20%.

Currently, the vacancy rate is at 29.5% and rising rapidly.

We will see a 35%+ vacancy rate within the next year at the current pace.

2/10 Image
As vacancy rates rise, companies are attempting to sublease office space.

7.2% of total office inventory in San Francisco is up for sublease now, up from 2.8% in 2019.

The same trend can be seen in many cities as shown below.

This issue is not contained to San Francisco.

3/10 Image
Read 10 tweets
Apr 12
A major problem has surfaced.

$1.5+ trillion in commercial real estate debt will mature by 2025 while interest rates have skyrocketed.

But, there's an even bigger problem, office vacancies just hit a record high.

A debt crisis on offices that no one wants.

(a thread)

1/8
Smaller banks have taken on a higher percentage of commercial real estate loans.

While we recently published analysis on this topic, new data emerged.

Small banks held just 17% of these loans in 2017.

New data shows small banks hold 27% of commercial real estate debt now.

3/8
Looking at the breakdown by sector, it is even more alarming.

Small banks hold 46% of retail loans and 30% of office loans.

This comes after the largest banking crisis since 2008 and collapse of multiple regional banks.

We have yet to receive the data post-SVB's collapse.

4/8
Read 4 tweets
Apr 5
JUST IN: Corporate bankruptcy filings in the first 2 months of 2023 hit a 12 year high.

111 bankruptcies were filed in January and February alone.

We are on track for the most bankruptcies in year since 2011.

Meanwhile, this is getting very little attention.

(a thread)

1/7
Here's a chart comparing bankruptcy filings in January and February 2023 to previous years.

With 111 bankruptcies in 2 months, this is the most since 2011.

It is also more than double what we saw at this time in 2022.

We are on track for ~670 bankruptcies in 2023.

2/7 Image
When factoring in December 2022, we've seen 151 bankruptcies in just 3 months.

This is more than any 3 month period since the pandemic began in March 2020.

Not a single month in 2022, other than December, exceeded 40 bankruptcies.

We've already had 2 months with 50+.

3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 4
Today, gold closed at its highest level since March 2022 at ~$2040/oz.

Gold is just 2.5% away from making an all time high and prices are up nearly 13% in just one month.

Here's how gold quickly became one of the world's hottest assets after years of pressure.

(a thread)

1/13
Some high level background on gold:

Gold has always been seen as a "safe haven" asset, like bonds, which are good to own in times of uncertainty.

Gold benefits from a weaker US Dollar, lower interest rates and geopolitical tensions.

3 key drivers over the last few years.

2/13
During the pandemic in 2020, gold made fresh highs.

Lockdowns spread uncertainty, recession fears grew and the US Dollar tumbled.

The Fed lowered rates to 0% overnight in response to the economic lockdown.

The chart below shows the inverse relationship in USD vs Gold.

3/13
Read 13 tweets

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