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Ian Ellis Profile picture
@ianellisjones
Apr 17, 2023 • 9 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
🚨 NEWS: The USS Milius (DDG 69) conducted a routine Taiwan Strait transit on April 16 local time.

The @USNavy guided missile destroyer “transited through a corridor in the Strait that is beyond the territorial sea of any coastal State.”
Official statement: Image
Live thread tracking US Navy movements in the Western Pacific based on public data:
From @USNINews:

Contrary to international law, China requires permission from foreign warships to transit the strait.

The transit of Milius is the first announced Taiwan Strait transit since the guided-missile USS Chung-Hoon (DDG-93) made the passage in January. Image
This is the *third* freedom of navigation operation for Japan-based Milius in less than one month:

March 24: Sailed near the Paracel Islands (claimed by PRC).

April 10: Passed within 12 nautical miles of Mischief Reef & the Spratly Islands.

April 16: Transits Taiwan Strait. Image
PLAN response:
Update from @USNINews:

In a Monday statement, the PLA Eastern Command said the Chinese monitored the passage from the Milius transit.

“The troops of the PLA Southern Theater Command will always stay on high alert and resolutely safeguard China’s national sovereignty and… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
News this morning: China announced “major military activity” to take place tomorrow April 18 in the Yellow Sea.

I’ve been tracking the latest developments in a live thread here:
The US, Japan, and South Korea militaries are operating near the Korean Peninsula as of Monday, April 17.

South Korea’s navy said Monday’s three-way naval drills took place in international waters off the country’s eastern coast.

More detailed analysis here:

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More from @ianellisjones

Ian Ellis Profile picture
Jan 20
“The pace of modernization that the PLA is going through is unprecedented. It’s far outpacing what we are doing...

We are the smallest and oldest that we’ve ever been. The Chinese, the PLA, is the largest and most modern that it has ever been.”

—USAF Brig. Gen. Douglas Wickert
“That is risk. That is uncertainty. And that’s why what we are doing here at Edwards Air Force Base is extremely important.”

Fascinating perspective on China from the Commander of the 412th Test Wing, which plans and conducts all flight and ground testing of next-gen aircraft.
This is the first time I’ve seen a senior U.S. military official publicly address the two new advanced airframes that China recently leaked online (what some are calling the J-36 & J-50).
Read 6 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Jan 18
U.S. Navy force posture ahead of the presidential transition of power 🇺🇸

8 of America’s 11 aircraft carriers are active or working up, and 3 are currently deployed: Truman in the Middle East (5th Fleet), Vinson + Washington in the Indo-Pacific (7th Fleet) Image
Last update:
Carrier USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75), cruiser USS Gettysburg (CG-64), and elements of Destroyer Squadron (DESRON) 28 are operating in the Red Sea. Image
Image
Image
Read 8 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Jan 11
To counter China’s anti-access, area-denial approach to keep the U.S. out of the Pacific in a crisis, Dep. SECDEF says: “we’re changing the game,” and in “classified war games these approaches are paying off.”

“We’ve focused on developing and fielding innovative operational concepts and force designs for how we use our capabilities, showing that we can continually shape and master the changing character of warfare.

From the 1990s on, the PRC carefully crafted its elaborate military modernization to counter two longstanding U.S. approaches to power projection.

One was aircraft carriers, as deployed during the 1996 Third Taiwan Strait Crisis. The other was our multi-month, time-phased force deployments that moved America’s military might from the continental U.S. into theater before an operation — like Desert Shield before Desert Storm and subsequent regional build-ups preceding later wars in Iraq and Afghanistan...

While there is much more work to do, it’s already manifesting in aspects that are quite different from the military that the PLA built itself to beat.”

More info below. Source: DOD, 10 Jan
Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks spoke about “four lessons” she views as critical for prevailing in the U.S. strategic competition with China during a keynote address today at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
Key considerations: Image
Read 7 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Jan 11
Outgoing U.S. Dep. Secretary of Defense:

“We want the PRC leadership to wake up each day, consider the risks of aggression, and think to themselves, ‘today is not the day’ — and for them to think that today, and every day, between now and 2027, in 2035, 2049, and beyond.”
"Outpacing the PRC: Lessons Learned for Strategic Competition"
Full quote: Image
Read 5 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Jan 9
Top conflicts to watch in 2025: @CFR_org

“The possibility that the U.S. could find itself in wars with not one but two major, nuclear-armed powers simultaneously is very real. The stakes today... cannot be overstated.”

680 experts prioritized 30 global hot spots (thread) Image
“The level of armed conflict around the world has steadily grown in recent years, which in turn has increased the risk of costly U.S. military intervention. This is particularly the case in the Middle East, which continues to be wracked by deadly violence across multiple countries. This violence has clear potential to intensify and spread. The horrific war in Ukraine that by some estimates has already claimed a million casualties also shows no sign of abating. This conflict could likewise escalate in ways that threaten vital U.S. interests and necessitate much deeper and more costly involvement. While the situation in the Indo-Pacific region is comparatively peaceful, numerous flashpoints exist, not least across the Taiwan Strait and in the South China Sea, that could suddenly ignite and rapidly draw in the U.S.”
“There have never been so many contingencies rated as high likelihood/high impact events (five) since the PPS began in 2008. Put differently, the level of anxiety that survey respondents feel about the risk of violent conflict over the coming twelve months has never been greater. Of the thirty contingencies surveyed, twenty-eight are judged to be either highly or moderately likely to occur in the next twelve months. Eighteen of those, moreover, would have a high or moderate impact on U.S. interests.”Image
Read 7 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Jan 6
Since the U.S. election, China:

- Hacked the U.S. Treasury Department
- Conducted largest naval drills in decades
- Deployed ships in strength to the South China Sea
- Launched the world’s biggest amphibious warship
- Accused of sabotaging undersea cables in Asia & Europe
- Imposed crippling export controls & sanctions on U.S. firms
- Unveiled new advanced aircraft (J-35, J-36, J-15T/D, KJ-3000)
- Practiced a naval blockade near Japanese islands for the first time
- Continues to execute the “worst telecom hack in U.S. history,” which compromised DJT & JDV devices

Beijing sending a message to the incoming admin. More info & sources below.
cc @marcorubio @michaelgwaltz @PeteHegseth @ElbridgeColby
Also ongoing…
Read 12 tweets

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