Ian Ellis Profile picture
Apr 17 9 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
🚨 NEWS: The USS Milius (DDG 69) conducted a routine Taiwan Strait transit on April 16 local time.

The @USNavy guided missile destroyer “transited through a corridor in the Strait that is beyond the territorial sea of any coastal State.”
Official statement: Image
Live thread tracking US Navy movements in the Western Pacific based on public data:
From @USNINews:

Contrary to international law, China requires permission from foreign warships to transit the strait.

The transit of Milius is the first announced Taiwan Strait transit since the guided-missile USS Chung-Hoon (DDG-93) made the passage in January. Image
This is the *third* freedom of navigation operation for Japan-based Milius in less than one month:

March 24: Sailed near the Paracel Islands (claimed by PRC).

April 10: Passed within 12 nautical miles of Mischief Reef & the Spratly Islands.

April 16: Transits Taiwan Strait. Image
Update from @USNINews:

In a Monday statement, the PLA Eastern Command said the Chinese monitored the passage from the Milius transit.

“The troops of the PLA Southern Theater Command will always stay on high alert and resolutely safeguard China’s national sovereignty and… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
News this morning: China announced “major military activity” to take place tomorrow April 18 in the Yellow Sea.

I’ve been tracking the latest developments in a live thread here:
The US, Japan, and South Korea militaries are operating near the Korean Peninsula as of Monday, April 17.

South Korea’s navy said Monday’s three-way naval drills took place in international waters off the country’s eastern coast.

More detailed analysis here:

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More from @ianellisjones

Jun 3
🚨 Video: A Chinese warship came within 150 yards of hitting American destroyer USS Chung-Hoon.

Embarked journalists captured the moment on video & witnessed the near collision.

"The fact this was announced over the radio prior to doing it clearly indicated it was intentional."
"Global News has been traveling on the HMCS Montreal, the Canadian frigate participating in the mission, since May 25th in the South China Sea.

A People's Liberation Navy ship picked up considerable speed and cut in front of the bow of the Chung-Hoon."
The Montreal's Commander, Capt. Paul Mountford said the maneuver was "not professional."

"I am hoping that is an isolated incident that won't happen again for us, because we have international law on our side," Mountford told @globalnews. "This is international waters."

Read 4 tweets
Jun 3
.@FHeisbourg asks @SecDef a question that many with friends in the military have heard anecdotally for years:

"A number of active duty, high-ranking American officers actually talk about imminence—2025 & 2027—being the most frequently cited dates" for armed conflict with #China.
"Are we going to continue to hear active duty, high-ranking American officers take that line, or will there be silence in the ranks?" 🇫🇷

🇺🇸 @SecDef: "xi challenged his military to develop the capabilities to conduct military operations by 2027—doesn't mean he's made a decision."
U.S. 🇺🇸 Officers "have the ability to say what they're thinking." @SecDef #SLD23

"Conflict is neither imminent or is it inevitable. We're going to do everything we can to make sure that we're doing the right things to maintain the status quo." @IISS_org
Read 4 tweets
Jun 1
The America Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) left Sasebo, Japan, for the first time since I began tracking movements in April.

This coincides with North Korea's spy satellite launch—the ARG was nearby in Tsushima Strait.

Reagan Carrier Strike Group underway in the Philippine Sea. Image
The Nimitz Carrier Strike Group (CSG) is underway in the Western Pacific in the vicinity of Guam.

The Makin Island ARG is headed east en route to its homeport of San Diego.

A U.S. Coast Guard ship is conducting joint maritime exercises with the Philippines and Japan this week.
Here’s the latest on North Korea’s failed launch:
Read 4 tweets
May 22
🚨 Major show of force from the US & China before the G-7 Summit:

- Chinese Surface Action Group circles Japan.

- Two US Carrier Strike Groups operate in the Philippine Sea & port in Japan ahead of the meeting.

- Russian ships transit the East China Sea.

Latest map & update: Image
👀 A lot of military activity around Japan as world leaders from the G-7 + India + Australia + Ukraine meet:

- Chinese ships circumnavigate Japan
- US Carrier Strike Groups & ARGs in the Philippine Sea & Japan
- Exercises at Kadena Air Base
- Russian ships move to East China Sea
‼️ Chinese Warships Circle Japan Ahead of G-7 Summit: @USNINews

Japan’s Ministry of Defense has released multiple reports tracking the movement of Chinese vessels from 29 April to 16 May.

Source and more information here:
Read 13 tweets
May 20
Musk on Taiwan:

The growing belligerence between China and the US "should be a concern for everyone."

Will China "make a move to take control of #Taiwan?" @davidfaber

"There is some inevitability to the situation." @elonmusk

Is it likely to happen? "That is their policy." 👇
Musk has deep & unique insight into China, dealing with both the government & private industry. He knows how they think & do business.

"The official policy of China is that Taiwan should be integrated. One does not need to read between the lines. One can simply read the lines."
When asked about Tesla operations:

"Almost no one realizes that the Chinese economy and the rest of the global economy are like conjoined twins. It would be like trying to separate conjoined twins. That's the severity of the situation."
Read 4 tweets
May 8
"The Chinese believe whoever rules the word rules the world."

@USNavy Rear Admiral Mike Studeman—in an eye-opening speech—exposes China's masterful facade:

"The Chinese are very good at engineering a veneer of responsibility regarding all of their actions."

60 mins in 5 👇
"Whoever frames the narrative dominates the narrative."

Keep this in mind when you see a headline from the Chinese government.

The PRC "are very effective at being the first mover on the issues. They get their story out first and they're ready to explain away almost anything."
China is "focused on what they call gaining greater and greater discourse power."

"To name a thing, to be able to be the one to define it. That's the objective there. That leads to an ability to have influence. In a vacuum, their messages actually do resonate."
Read 5 tweets

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