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I said this would happen.
That Ukraine would start using its drones to strike vulnerable Russian electrical infrastructure in retaliation for Russia's strikes on Ukraine's power grid.
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That Ukraine would start using its drones to strike vulnerable Russian electrical infrastructure in retaliation for Russia's strikes on Ukraine's power grid.
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https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1647717527433216000
I said that back in October 2022.
In that context, I think this was a test for a future Ukrainian mass UAV strike/shaping operation aimed at Russian logistics.
Russian Army logistics are rail logistics.
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In that context, I think this was a test for a future Ukrainian mass UAV strike/shaping operation aimed at Russian logistics.
Russian Army logistics are rail logistics.
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https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1582889117385658368
Belgorod is a major electric powered railway logistics hub for the Russian Army.
At a guess, that electrical substation sent power to local Russian Railways serving depots feeding Russian Army units in the LPR/DPR.
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At a guess, that electrical substation sent power to local Russian Railways serving depots feeding Russian Army units in the LPR/DPR.
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This Ukrainian test was to see how long it takes Russia to repair the substation, plus listen to Russian cellphone communications related to it for cues as to Russia's electrical supply chain.
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This strike right on Ukraine's border works as an intelligence "census" of the Russian electrical sub-station repair supply chain.
Among other things, did the Russians convert many of its skilled male electrical workers into Mobiks?
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Among other things, did the Russians convert many of its skilled male electrical workers into Mobiks?
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The corrupt recruiting system the Russian Army has is all about two metrics: bodies and bribes.
It most definitely is not about retaining skilled workers for defense work, unless it is a means of obtaining bribes.
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It most definitely is not about retaining skilled workers for defense work, unless it is a means of obtaining bribes.
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Much of electrical power grid infrastructure is long lead time capital equipment.
It took the entire Western World sending such equipment to Ukraine for it to keep up with Russian missile attack damage to Ukraine's power grid.
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It took the entire Western World sending such equipment to Ukraine for it to keep up with Russian missile attack damage to Ukraine's power grid.
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Russia doesn't have that option.
Nor does Russia have enough of the industrial microchips of the right types stockpiled for repairing its electrical infrastructure at scale.
Everyone in the world moved to 'just-in-time' supply chains for such goods because it was cheap.
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Nor does Russia have enough of the industrial microchips of the right types stockpiled for repairing its electrical infrastructure at scale.
Everyone in the world moved to 'just-in-time' supply chains for such goods because it was cheap.
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It was the way of the world pre-COVID-19.
And Putin thought taking Ukraine would be a three day special operation.
If Ukraine's information operations saying it has hundreds or low thousands of such attack drones are true.
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And Putin thought taking Ukraine would be a three day special operation.
If Ukraine's information operations saying it has hundreds or low thousands of such attack drones are true.
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This Belgorod strike just gave Ukraine real world battle damage assessment and insights into the state of Russian electrical infrastructure to go with it's deep, because it had no choice, experience with what works and what does not in restoring electricity to railways.
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Consider what would happen to Russia's electrified rails if 150 electrical sub-stations like the one in Belgorod within 200 km of Ukraine's borders were all attacked at once.
7 of every 10 freight engines are electric & electric passenger engines outnumber diesel ~3.5 to 1.
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7 of every 10 freight engines are electric & electric passenger engines outnumber diesel ~3.5 to 1.
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The logistical "systemic shock" to the Russian rail system would be...considerable.
Especially if Ukraine's much signaled counter-offensive kicked off when the massed drone strikes went in.
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Especially if Ukraine's much signaled counter-offensive kicked off when the massed drone strikes went in.
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Admittedly, much of this thread this is speculation.
But it is speculation grounded on events and trends readily seen by all since October 2022.
And like that Oct 2022 tweet, this thread is my marker against near-future events.
14/14 End.
But it is speculation grounded on events and trends readily seen by all since October 2022.
And like that Oct 2022 tweet, this thread is my marker against near-future events.
14/14 End.
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