THE SHORT BEAR Profile picture
Apr 17 9 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Frederick Herzberg's research published(1968) revealed that achievement and recognition for achievement are the primary internal motivators.

A new study found out that even small wins or progress in meaningful work can greatly impact emotions, motivation, and performance
Analyzing anonymous diary entries from hundreds of people and thousands of workdays, the study concluded that making progress in meaningful work, even through small wins, can significantly impact emotions, motivation, and performance. Image
In trading an investing, create 2 systems.

The results and the process.

The results:
The growth month by month, year by year and decade by decade will reflect your growth over time which is part of the small wins within the overall journey.
This growth, over time will push you to trust yourself, give you a loop of motivation and overall will make the journey and your life more enjoyable.

Despite the long term positive expectancy both in growth and emotional satisfaction, it is not what will get you there.
I want you to truly dissect the process from the results.

The overall result results from your daily process.

The process is what allows for the overall feedback loop to be enjoyable.
It is extremely important to have a quantifiable, objective and easy growth process to allow you to push through the learning curve your path entails. Image
Within the process I want you build clear checklist type items to materialize the growth.

For example:

•Prep each morning with checking boxes, which form an opp score
•Look through the dilution and if it fits your minimum criteria(for small caps)
•Formulate execution plan
3. Review the execution after the market close and once again use buckets:

Copy chart to review
Followed plan?
Executional performance?
Emotional control?
What you did well
What you did wrong
How can you fix mistakes
New Strategy findings
Formulate an overall process, both longer term and day by day to quantify and feel the progress.

It is your job to create this structure, it will keep you grounded, objective and will allow you to harvest new motivation and energy.

Make your life a continuous growth process. Image

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More from @TheShortBear

Apr 18
What is the message?

How many of you have seen a news piece hit the feed and felt so incredibly sure about a stock direction based on it just to it do exactly the opposite?

Most of us have.

Here is an excerpt from the book Essentialism. Image
The point of the story is often forgotten through the overwhelming dramatically written news piece 📰

News can be one of the strongest tools you can use to your advantage if you know where to look. Image
I want you to try this exercise:

1. Find the loser and winner

Most financial hit pieces have a distinct winner and loser. Pinpoint the two to unveil a potential agenda
Read 6 tweets
Apr 17
Make sure to understand how each position within your book correlates to another.

The best books do not give up on performance but optimize it.

If 8 assets are to return the same expected growth, however the correlation is different it creates an opportunity to maximize. Image
To give you an idea:

If you owned 10 assets that are correlated at 0% vs 60%.

at 60% your odds of losing in a given year at 38% and your return to risk is .31

at 0% correlation, it becomes 20% and 0.83

You have an estimated return per risk unit that is almost 3x bigger. Image
It drastically changes the risk parameters of your portfolio and allows for bigger positioning and a bigger portfolio.

In general when confronted with a decision, make sure to think about the overall portfolio too.

(correlation is just one example)
Read 12 tweets
Apr 17
Apple launches Apple Card’s savings accounts with 4.15% interest rate.

A genius move in the current environment

As of April 12, the national average yield for savings accounts is 𝟬.𝟮𝟰 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗔𝗣𝗬, $AAPL s offer would thus more than 10x the national avg. Image
The offer has:
•No fees
•No minimum deposits
•No minimum balance

On top aaple is partnering up with Goldman Sachs for this project which allows the accounts to be insured by the FDIC for up to a balance of $250k.
Given where treasuries are sitting $AAPL should be able to attract new customers for AAPL pay and make a profit on top.

They mention that yields can change at any time. Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 15
A few books to study the subject:

1. "The Little Book That Still Beats the Market" by Joel Greenblatt

2. "The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor" by Howard Marks

3. "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham

4. „Thinking, Fast and Slow“ by… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
To make the point clearer:

"In the short term, the market is a voting machine, but in the long term, it is a weighing machine."

- Warren Buffett

"The idea of excessive stock market competition destroying the pricing mechanism has some validity, but it’s not a total disaster.… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
The point I am making is that the companies with the safest earnings predictability are the ones with the highest moat or competitive advantage.

These will oscillate between over and undervalued around their Earnings per share trend.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 15
Banks are beating this earnings season.

My analysis gives me an intrinsic value of about 42$ which gave me a 34% discount to enter.

The quicker we make our way to that intrinsic value the quicker I will be looking to repark the gain into another discounted asset.
$BAC remains an asset I gladly own, returning a 3%+ dividend which equates to 6 figures per year in dividends which I will gladly use to increase existing positions and further compound.

It allows me to diversify within a space that until now I could not justify owning.
$BAC really crystalizes what I am trying to share about my investing philosophy.

Buying companies with the biggest competitive advantage and best fundamentals at a discount when people hate or panic out of a space.
Read 9 tweets
Apr 15
Enormous action within the small cap AI space.

Very particular how much time it took for the AI hype to go from the media and using it to actually showing up within stocks.

$AI was the first one, however the lack of overall liquidity within the market killed it.
$CXAI is the first one to actually show a strong bid which led to all name including 'ai' in their name to run.

You can see that the liquidity is missing through the volume these are trading, even with a sectoral theme.

$SAI $CXAI $MRAI
Sectoral themes are known for their continuous bid and volume and we barely made it to 40,000,000 volume.

Average volume during prior themes:

BTC: 70mil
EV: 85mil
Covid: 70mil

And these names were trading at double digit eclipsing the current $ volume.
Read 4 tweets

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