π§΅1/4
The western improved, but still can't be competitive on shells.
Last year, even at war period, Rheinmetall produced only 66000 arty shells.
Now they and Nammo bought some other companies and can reach maybe 350.000.
Companies like BAES, Nammo Nexter are small producers.
2/4 Exactly because their focus are guided shells, extremely expensive.
Nammo, nexter, BAES: 40k/y.
They can't just change the production.
This year the 5 π΅π±π·π΄π§π¬π¨πΏπΈπ° keep being the biggest ammon producers, possibly reach 500.000 shells.
Set shell factories are a slow process.
2/4
The US is opening new factories, but even with all efforts, at this moment, their production can't reach 25k/Mo.
I always say that more local politics and community voice means less shells.
Locals doesn't want shell factories near their houses.
4/4
In WWII, the US had to build 700.000 houses to move workers to live near shell factories. It means a lot of money and time.
Arty shells were the base of URSS doctrine and RU inherented a lot of this culture. Its hard to beat them at this field, specially w NK support.
Note 1:
Myth:
Ukr need less shells because western are more accurate. Yes, western arty is more accurate due to better Barrels, ammo and fire control systems. But this advantage isn't means something like 20-30% inside the blast radius - 150m-, so, no.. It doens't help too much.
Note 2:
More than 1/3 of UKR artilleries are out combat due some reason, but mainly the distance of repair plants. It's insane to move an arty piece 1000-1500km to repair.
And we are talking about few hundred pieces, maybe 1/5 of RU.
Without missiles, arty is a lost battle.
S.K is the only country able to change this game, but, still would be necessaries more 1.500-2500 pieces artilleries, or 3-4x what allies sent to Ukr.
This field is where I see few perspectives for the allies and where RU doctrine impose their advance.
Challenger 2, Leo 2, Pt-91 and dozens of T72 from Morroccos are in Ukr.
The Challenger 2 and Leo 2 weren't tested on a real war.
I mean in a balanced battlefield with combined weapons and without air superiority. A real ground to ground fight.
2/4
This stage of war will change the armored vehicle market.
Until this moment, the only tanks really tested on battlefield are the T class and with a heavy negative propaganda against their performance, specially the RU made.
In 1995, the US had a inventory of 24M of arty shells and around 4500 pieces. The SK doctrine is mostly driven by US.
The SK has like 6500 pieces. It means no less than 30-40M of shells multiple Cal. Maybe 70% 155mm.
2/2 500.000 is enough for just one month if Ukraine really want to duel. (15-20k/day).
The whole western shell production can't reach 800.000/y yet.
SK is the only ally able to provide some capability for UKR artilleries if they decide so.
But SK won't provide lethal support.
Note:
Some people believe that Soviet stockpile for arty is near the end.
Even if it's happening, some specialists, including UKR, argue that RU capacity is between 2-3M/y.
More, the N. K stockpiles would be even bigger than SK. Why? Part of chinese/soviet doctrines from 60s
1/3 From maybe 15-20y is happening a complete redesign on Arm industry.
Countries like Turkey, India, UAE, China and South Korea are becoming big players there.
Mainly due to their competitive prices.
India in a partnership with Russia start to sell a complete line of Brahmos.
2/3
The S.K. is improving and expanding market with Poland, now inside EU.
EDGE-UAE group is presenting a complete line of kamikaze UAVs and robot IFVs.
For example, the Turkish Arma 8x8 and the IFV Otokar Tulpar, both Modular, cost around 25-40% of western competitors.
3/3
The Chinese Norinco is presenting a variety of guided missiles and heavy vehicles.
The presence of these countries in expositions around the world growth considerably during the last years.
I have no doubts about their progressive competitiveness and growth in marketshare.
1/2 Some time ago @TrentTelenko was pointing some shortage of RU Mil Trucks
I didn't understand exactly the reason, knowing that Mil trucks doesn't demand very high tech parts.
I've check the RU truck production and numbers are high.
What is behind that possible shortage?
2/2 The 3 biggest for Mil trucks are:
URAL producing 15.000 yearly;
Kamaz produces 45.000 yearly;
Gaz produces 30.000 yearly
There are some reasons.
For example, Ural is associated to Iveco, what make most of its components under sanctions.
It answer partially the question.
Note:
These truck companies also work on light armored vehicles and MRAPs.
Usually have specialized engine units, able to refurbish and adapt new engines on Mil vehicles.
Could be the reason for that shortage?
Money:
This is a serious problem. But they can manage this year without big changes on battlefront/political stability.
The country will be broken for years, but I don't see they regretting due this. For next year I predict collapse.
2/7 Elite troops:
They lost most of their Elite troops, specially on first weeks of war and these units taken years to train.
BUT in every African country where had a Wagner op, there were at least a detachment or even a small brigade of Spetsnaz. So They still have some.
3/7
Barrels:
Barrels is what is we've seen in previous thread. I don't see a solution for short time, but they will raise their production capacity. They will produce massively lower quality barrels, but will keep fighting and just firing less.
I feel extremely bothered reading the western news during the last months. In March they start to say that RU army was lacking everything. Nothing was confirmed, but a probably strategy to calm down the Ukr about the delay in weapons.
2/5 A country of 150M people and 1M active mil personnel can't run-out menpower;
Can't lack shells as we've seen in previous posts;
Can't run-out tanks and equipment with more than 10 ARP working to repair units;
Can't run-out old Missiles due to large cold war stockpiles;
3/5
Can't run-out Trucks because have 3 among the biggest global Mil trucks;
Can't run-out fuel due to its export capacity;
Can't lack casevac/medvac due to the size of its military.
Can't lack industrial technical work force due to its annual graduating numbers.