Thread by @imetatronink

🧵Ukraine War Update

Once it became clear the Russians had no intention to launch a winter offensive, I’ve steadily come to believe they concluded no later than summer 2022 that they must prioritize preparations to face a possible direct NATO intervention in this war.

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I am increasingly persuaded the introduction of the American “wunderwaffen” (M-777 and HIMARS) has overridingly influenced Russian prosecution of this war – not on account of these particular systems’ battlefield efficacy – but by what they symbolized:

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The US having “raised the stakes” in this fashion, the war was instantly transformed into an escalatory duel.

And that realization has, in my estimation, strongly influenced everything we have seen the Russians do since then.

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First, they prepared to shorten their lines.

Many remain thoroughly convinced the late summer Ukrainian “counter-offensives” took the Russians by surprise. I continue to *strongly* dispute that conclusion.

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It is my firm opinion that the Russian strategy in both Kherson and Kharkov was to ultimately pull back to contracted, more defensible lines, and to do so while yet exacting an extremely heavy price on the undergunned Ukrainian attackers.

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In my view, the thing speaks for itself: the Ukrainian “counter-offensives” have resulted in the near dissolution of the armies that launched them, as witnessed by the many dozens of horrifying cemetery videos that have emerged in recent months.

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Meanwhile, the Russians have been preparing upwards of 300k effectives drawn from their vast reserve pool – possibly as many as 500k total.

They withdrew many of their most accomplished units from the spring and summer campaign in the Donbass / Azov region.

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One must assume many of these newly minted “combat veterans” have been contributing to the training of the mobilized forces.

And, as that obviously unrushed training has proceeded, the Russians have continued to fight the AFU with a pronounced economy of force.

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Coupled with Russia’s overwhelming firepower advantage, this economy of force – impressively exemplified by their tactics in the battles for Soledar, Bakhmut, and Kreminna – has inflicted ever-escalating losses on the Ukrainian forces.

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Simultaneously, Russian industrial war production has increased to a degree entirely unforeseen by most analysts.

The aggregated evidence from the battlefield indisputably confirms Russian replenishment of munitions has continued apace with no discernible interruptions.

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Indeed, Russian firepower is now more abundant and effective than ever. They are applying more high-explosive ordnance more precisely than ever before.

They are now employing GLONASS-guided 500kg and 1500kg glide-bombs to devastating effect.

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Tornado MLRS systems (also GLONASS-guided) have entered the fray in increasing numbers. The Tornado is substantially superior to the HIMARS, with comparable accuracy, much greater range, larger salvos, and *significantly* heavier payload.

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Even more concerning for the NATO/AFU war planners is that, thanks to the recent intel “leaks”, everyone now knows the Russians are jamming US/NATO GPS-guided munitions via ECM, and also shooting down HIMARS rockets and HARMS missiles with ever-increasing regularity.

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Concurrently, the Russians have built up a *very* significant force in Belarus, even as the full military alliance between Russia and Belarus was solidified.

This force is almost certainly viewed as “first responders” to a NATO advance from Poland and/or the Baltics.

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Now, as I have always argued since even before this war’s formal commencement in late February 2022, I think there is virtually zero possibility the US/NATO will directly intervene in this war – UNLESS the #EmpireAtAllCosts cult seizes the reins of military power in America.

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I don’t believe that state of affairs yet prevails.

But I *do* believe there are two very powerful factions contesting the point. The recent “Pentagon Leaks” are almost certainly related to this ongoing struggle.

This is, therefore, the moment of greatest danger yet.

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Direct NATO intervention in this war would, of course, be utter madness.

The Russians have been preparing for it for at least 9 months, with the overwhelming majority of their potential force retained in reserve, under constant training.

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I don’t believe the Russians are concerned about the most recent iteration of NATO/AFU hybrid army alleged to be poised for a “crushing counter-offensive”.

They are ready to receive it, and will do so with one hand still held securely behind their back.

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They will continue to hold in reserve the vast majority of the army they have been building for many months, just in case the #EmpireAtAllCosts cult triumphs in Washington.

And when you give it some serious thought, you’ll see it is the logical and wise decision.

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Of course, there is effectively ZERO chance a US-led “coalition of the willing” is going to defeat the Russians in a conventional war in Ukraine.

They quite simply do NOT have the wherewithal to prosecute a high-intensity conflict against Russia.

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The only possible evolution of such an undertaking would be to eventually place the west in the position of being tempted to go scorched-earth nuclear in a fit of desperate humiliation.

This, obviously, is a cause for great concern.

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In conjunction with these developments, I submit the remarkable statements emerging from the visit to Moscow of Chinese defense chief Li Shangfu forcefully confirm the de facto military wedding of Russian and Chinese interests, with Iran already firmly in the same camp.

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To complicate matters even further, the entire west is on a trajectory to its worst economic depression since the 1930s, accompanied by the portentous transition of the global dollar system to a multipolar trade and currency regime.

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In conclusion, I am thoroughly persuaded that the next few months of 2023 are almost certainly going to shape our world for decades to come.

Prepare accordingly …

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