Patricia Marins Profile picture
Apr 19 β€’ 9 tweets β€’ 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
🧡1/4
Is EU doing it's best?

Challenger 2, Leo 2, Pt-91 and dozens of T72 from Morroccos are in Ukr.

The Challenger 2 and Leo 2 weren't tested on a real war.

I mean in a balanced battlefield with combined weapons and without air superiority. A real ground to ground fight. Image
2/4

This stage of war will change the armored vehicle market.
Until this moment, the only tanks really tested on battlefield are the T class and with a heavy negative propaganda against their performance, specially the RU made.

Relevant: Only πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ and πŸ‡΅πŸ‡Ή are sending Leo 2a6.
2/3

The 2A6 are considerably superior in every aspect. Some EU countries have 2A6 stored, but decided to send the 2A4.

The 2A4 is an excellent tank, but still a 80's model.

They will face modern T72B3/M with upgrades from 2010-2022.

Why send the old ones instead newer models?
4/4

Back to the barrels, most of the Pt-91 use 2A46 barrels and have to remove the turret to replace it

Will they make this in Kiev? In Poland as they are doing with artilleries ?

More than 1/3 of UKR tanks are at this situation, so maybe Ukrainians are doing it in Kiev.
Note:

The estimates are around 200 deployed T90 and hundreds of T72B3/M on Donbas.

The allies take long time to decide, to repair and to deliver. But specially when they decide to send something, they send the older equipment, while the russians are working to send their best.
Note 2:

Until Europe take this war seriously Ukr has no chance.
Long time to deliver and not enough quantity and quality, are degrading the Ukrainian forces and forcing the army to find precarious solutions.
Part of UKR operations are moving to guerrilla due lack of weapons. ImageImage
Note 3:

Ukraine isn't at position to argue requesting better arms, but every analyst can see this and I just see a silence from them. Why?

Probably because argue at this line sounds like supporting the russian narrative.

But Most of the weapons delivered are paid by EU Funds.
Note 4 AID:
Ukraine even with its destroyed economy spent more than allies on its war.

Ukraine military investment: $130bi
Allies AID: 110bi
While RU spent around 3-4x more.

Ukraine is paying it's war.

EU must do some self-criticism.
GDP don't win wars.
Note 5:

And Russia?

Fastly adaptating to the battlefield and treating the war seriously as life or death.

Expanding its flyable zone and employing new weapons and bombs every month.

The actual russian performance is absolutely superior to the last year. But with a lot to fix

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More from @pati_marins64

Apr 20
🧡1/3
Astros III MLRS is announced!

The system fire power improved considerably from Astros II. Now it can fire 4 cruiser Missiles per launcher with range of 1500km or a salvo of 12 150mm rockets able to reach 170km.

But for me the most interesting feature was the Astros AFC. Image
2/3

The ASTROS AFC is an autonomous launcher, able to do the a target acquisition, fire and move out fastly.
It has all the command features integrated and can fire 12 guided Ss-150G with range of 150km in just 15 seconds. Image
3/3
Another important unit keep being the meteorological station since rockets are extremely susceptible to weather, specially wind.

Astros III MLRS is a very competitive system with excellent range for unguided and guided rockets, and also long range cruiser Missiles and price. Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 18
🧡1/4
The western improved, but still can't be competitive on shells.

Last year, even at war period, Rheinmetall produced only 66000 arty shells.
Now they and Nammo bought some other companies and can reach maybe 350.000.
Companies like BAES, Nammo Nexter are small producers. Image
2/4
Exactly because their focus are guided shells, extremely expensive.
Nammo, nexter, BAES: 40k/y.

They can't just change the production.

This year the 5 πŸ‡΅πŸ‡±πŸ‡·πŸ‡΄πŸ‡§πŸ‡¬πŸ‡¨πŸ‡ΏπŸ‡ΈπŸ‡° keep being the biggest ammon producers, possibly reach 500.000 shells.

Set shell factories are a slow process.
2/4

The US is opening new factories, but even with all efforts, at this moment, their production can't reach 25k/Mo.

I always say that more local politics and community voice means less shells.

Locals doesn't want shell factories near their houses.
Read 7 tweets
Apr 17
1/2

SK renting 500000 shells for US

In 1995, the US had a inventory of 24M of arty shells and around 4500 pieces. The SK doctrine is mostly driven by US.
The SK has like 6500 pieces. It means no less than 30-40M of shells multiple Cal. Maybe 70% 155mm.

washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/…
2/2
500.000 is enough for just one month if Ukraine really want to duel. (15-20k/day).

The whole western shell production can't reach 800.000/y yet.

SK is the only ally able to provide some capability for UKR artilleries if they decide so.

But SK won't provide lethal support.
Note:
Some people believe that Soviet stockpile for arty is near the end.
Even if it's happening, some specialists, including UKR, argue that RU capacity is between 2-3M/y.
More, the N. K stockpiles would be even bigger than SK. Why? Part of chinese/soviet doctrines from 60s
Read 7 tweets
Apr 16
1/3
From maybe 15-20y is happening a complete redesign on Arm industry.
Countries like Turkey, India, UAE, China and South Korea are becoming big players there.

Mainly due to their competitive prices.

India in a partnership with Russia start to sell a complete line of Brahmos. ImageImageImage
2/3

The S.K. is improving and expanding market with Poland, now inside EU.

EDGE-UAE group is presenting a complete line of kamikaze UAVs and robot IFVs.

For example, the Turkish Arma 8x8 and the IFV Otokar Tulpar, both Modular, cost around 25-40% of western competitors.
3/3

The Chinese Norinco is presenting a variety of guided missiles and heavy vehicles.

The presence of these countries in expositions around the world growth considerably during the last years.
I have no doubts about their progressive competitiveness and growth in marketshare. Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 16
1/2
Some time ago @TrentTelenko was pointing some shortage of RU Mil Trucks
I didn't understand exactly the reason, knowing that Mil trucks doesn't demand very high tech parts.

I've check the RU truck production and numbers are high.

What is behind that possible shortage? Image
2/2
The 3 biggest for Mil trucks are:
URAL producing 15.000 yearly;
Kamaz produces 45.000 yearly;
Gaz produces 30.000 yearly

There are some reasons.
For example, Ural is associated to Iveco, what make most of its components under sanctions.

It answer partially the question.
Note:

These truck companies also work on light armored vehicles and MRAPs.

Usually have specialized engine units, able to refurbish and adapt new engines on Mil vehicles.
Could be the reason for that shortage?
Read 4 tweets
Apr 16
🧡1/7
Russia run-out few, but crucial things.

Money:
This is a serious problem. But they can manage this year without big changes on battlefront/political stability.
The country will be broken for years, but I don't see they regretting due this. For next year I predict collapse. Image
2/7
Elite troops:

They lost most of their Elite troops, specially on first weeks of war and these units taken years to train.
BUT in every African country where had a Wagner op, there were at least a detachment or even a small brigade of Spetsnaz. So They still have some. Image
3/7

Barrels:

Barrels is what is we've seen in previous thread. I don't see a solution for short time, but they will raise their production capacity. They will produce massively lower quality barrels, but will keep fighting and just firing less.
Read 9 tweets

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