Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴) Profile picture
Apr 19, 2023 11 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Here are the 7 most important charts to understand the United States' fiscal position...

...and why we are heading towards a debt-spiral black hole.

#1 - Here is the annual budget Surplus or Deficit through 2022. Image
#2 - The problem with deficits is that they add up. Each annual deficit adds to the total National Debt.

This debt hole grows bigger because of annual interest expense on all this debt.

Not a problem when interest rates are ~0%. Big problem when they're 5% per year (now). Image
#3 - We could reverse this trend if the US Gov could just spend less than it brings in via tax revenue.

But this hasn't happened in 22 years.

There is no political will to balance the budget. That's why these deficits are the norm. Here's 2022: Image
#4 - To rein in these deficits, the US Gov could cut spending.

Yet, every politician is incentivized to "bring home the bacon" for their constituents and donors.

At no point has the US managed to implement meaningful austerity. Spending only goes up-and-to-the-right. Image
#5 - The US Gov could raise taxes to solve the problem. This has happened (and will continue).

In 1913, income tax was introduced - it only applied to the richest 3% and rates were limited to between 1-6%. And now?

Problem is politicians spend faster than tax revenue increases Image
#6 - The danger of the growing National Debt is the debt-spiral black hole

The more debt we have, the larger the interest expense on our debt, which causes larger annual deficits

Since 1800, 51 out of 52 countries who reached 130% debt-to-GDP eventually defaulted

US now = 129% Image
#7 - What's more, this danger doesn't seem to be understood by US Gov officials.

Here's an actual projection of debt-to-GDP into the future that the US Treasury Department released. h/t @LynAldenContact Image
But there is something that theoretically could still save the United States from the debt-spiral black hole.

Here's @LukeGromen discussing what it would take:
Find out why the US will not be able to save itself from its National Debt.

And learn what you can do to save yourself... and actually thrive: jessemyers.substack.com/p/643-april-20…
Some folks who have loudly trumpeted this warning (and who might enjoy the charts in this thread):
@PrestonPysh @saylor @LynAldenContact @LukeGromen @FossGregfoss @LawrenceLepard @jameslavish @JeffBooth @CedYoungelman @samcallah @MartyBent @ODELL @BitcoinIsSaving @maxkeiser
If you're looking to Onramp to the #Bitcoin lifeboat the right way, get in touch with us:

(Note: for accredited investors and institutions only)onrampbitcoin.com

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More from @Croesus_BTC

May 22, 2025
Strategy will own $70T of #Bitcoin in 20 years, making it by far the most valuable company in the history of the world.

Bitcoin Treasury Companies will hold 50% of all BTC, way more than most Bitcoiners are prepared for.

THREAD on why... and a personal announcement 🌙😄 Image
To set the stage, there is $1000T of asset value in the world.

Bitcoin is just 0.2% Image
Saylor's perspective is half of all capital is simply looking for the best Store of Value.

Bitcoin is the best SoV asset.

SoV capital will osmotically flow towards Bitcoin. Image
Read 12 tweets
May 5, 2025
Global asset landscape - 2025 update!

In 2023, there was $900T of global wealth. Today, that number has grown to $1000T.

THREAD on the key insights of this analysis... Image
Total global asset value has grown at 6% per year, over the last 2 years.

#Bitcoin has been the star performer. Image
The global money supply has grown at 4.8% per year over the last 2 years.

This analysis from @DylanLeClair_ shows the M2 money supply for the 21 largest economies, converted into dollars.

The world isn't getting 6% richer per year. Fiat currency is diluting at 4.8%+ per year. Image
Read 9 tweets
Mar 19, 2025
Saylor's huge new move: $STRF

Strategy is a pump, designed to accelerate capital flow from the Bond market into #Bitcoin

This is how @saylor will source $3T of Bond market capital to buy Bitcoin

THREAD explaining it all... Image
Bond market:
~2% convertible debt
~98% ordinary debt

To date, Strategy has sourced capital via individual convertible notes

Now they've added:
- $STRK to streamline convertible note offering
- $STRF to tap into the $300T of capital in the broader fixed income market Image
Don't believe me? Listen to Saylor tell you:

"There's $300 trillion of fixed income so I want 1% of it."

He is thinking about this graphic. It's why he shows it in every presentation.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 14, 2025
There are now 36,000,000+ altcoins.

This has only made #Bitcoin stronger.

THREAD breaking down what's happening & why altseason has been permanently cancelled... Image
As the number of altcoins has grown...

Their combined strength has weakened.

Since 2021, Bitcoin dominance has increased. Image
When coins die, they don't go to $0. They last trade at $10k or $100k market cap.

With 36M coins like this, a significant portion of total crypto market cap is illiquid leftovers.

With that in mind, Bitcoin is approaching *effective* total dominance... Image
Read 7 tweets
Mar 12, 2025
$13M per #Bitcoin in 20 years.

That's what Michael @Saylor expects.

THREAD breaking down what he sees & how he got to this number... Image
Saylor's analysis allows for a bearish scenario of "only" $3M per BTC...

But also a BULLISH scenario of as much as $49M per BTC in just 20 years.

How did he get these numbers?... Image
As a starting point, Saylor leveraged my analysis (@Croesus_BTC). This gave him:

- $900T of value in the world
- rationale that all $900T is within scope as SoV
- "Full Potential Valuation" framework for forecasting #Bitcoin value

(Can find original article at link in my bio) Image
Read 8 tweets
Mar 10, 2025
.@saylor revealed his latest Strategy to acquire more BTC

The potential scale? +262,500 BTC and +52% BTC yield

THREAD breaking down what it means for #Bitcoin, $MSTR, and $STRK ... Image
This new program gives Strategy up to $21B in newly raised funds, explicitly to buy Bitcoin Image
Strategy will sell shares of $STRK directly into the market ("at-the-market") in order to streamline fundraising

Previously, they had to announce, price, sell, and close individual Convertible Notes Image
Read 8 tweets

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