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Diogenes Profile picture
@WallStCynic
Apr 20 • 5 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
And with gross and operating margins higher than $TSLA, Mercedes doesn’t seem to be “disrupted”, does it? #ProfitableDinosaur Image
(2)Toyota…? Nope. Their operating margin (9% last FY) is improving. $TSLA Image
(3) Not even staid old VW Group with their 8% operating margins. $TSLA Image
(4) Even old man Ford has 6-7% operating margins! $TSLA Image
(5) So can we dispense with this silly narrative that $TSLA price cuts are only hurting the legacy automotive OEM’s, please? At their current 9% operating margin, any further Tesla price cuts will also disrupt…Tesla.

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More from @WallStCynic

Diogenes Profile picture
Apr 19
Remember that $TSLA Megapack energy storage pump a few moths ago? Well GWh installed were up a lot sequentially(3.9 vs 2.5, Q/Q), but gross profits not so much($159M to $168M, Q/Q). Gross margins in that segment dropped to below 11%.
(2) And $TSLA Automotive Gross Profit/Unit is back to 2019 levels. And that’s before the April price cuts. Image
(3) And the overall $TSLA operating margin (ex-tax credits) of 9.4% is now approaching the level of the other auto OEM’s they are supposedly “disrupting”. Further price cuts will hurt Tesla as much/more than the competition, at this point.
Read 4 tweets
Diogenes Profile picture
Mar 15
Can someone explain the valuation discrepancy between cash-burning legacy data center operator $DLR,and it’s affiliated Singapore-listed REIT, $DCRU.SP…? DCRU owns the exact same type of data centers as its parent, yet is much cheaper. It trades at almost a 9 cap vs 5 for $DLR!
(2) As for yield, $DLR yields 4.6% vs 8.0% for $DCRU.SP. Again these are the same type of global legacy data centers (DCRU is not just Asian DC’s) in both portfolios, so this is a direct comp. REIT investors, can you help me out here?
(3) And given the reports of numerous data centers up for sale (particularly from private owners), to raise cash, it remains to be seen how long $DLR and $EQIX can keep their towering valuations of 4-5 caps and 100x EPS. Private sales at 8-9 caps are coming soon…
Read 7 tweets
Diogenes Profile picture
Jan 24
The $GE 4Q press release only has 18 pages of adjustments. Post-spin, 2023E guidance for “Adjusted EPS” of $1.60 to $2.00 is well below estimates($2.40).
(2) And they cut the “Crown Jewel” (Aerospace) guidance for 2023 Segment Operating Profit from $6.0B to $5.3-5.7B.
(3) In fact, the $GE RemainCo guidance cuts are even more substantial than they appear on the surface. See below:
Read 4 tweets
Diogenes Profile picture
Jan 18
The Astonishing Economics of the Tesla Megapack | It’s come to my attention that the $TSLA Faithful are beginning a new bull narrative(FSD and robots are so 2021-22), based on “Megapack” utility-scale battery storage. See this breathless article below: torquenews.com/14335/astonish…
(2) The $TSLA bulls believe that demand for its Megapacks is 40 GW, and they are “sold out” for years. Tesla currently sells a 3.9MWh Megapack for $2.6-2.7M, or $680K per MWh. 40 GW would be $27B in future revenues. And “at a 50% gross margin, would be…”
(3) First, please stop. A little over 1 GW of battery storage was installed in the US in 2020, and that is expected to rise to 7.5 GW ($5B) by 2025. Image
Read 6 tweets
Diogenes Profile picture
Jan 9
What Does 2023 Have in Store for DigitalBridge? | This post on $DBRG is symptomatic of the Hopium being smoked in the data center space. Let’s dive in, shall we? 310value.substack.com/p/what-does-20…
(2) Specifically, we will focus on the recent almost $11B purchase of data center company Switch by $DBRG, which has been a point of contention between the bulls and bears. The bulls believe it was an opportunistic purchase consistent with CEO’s aggressive roll-up strategy…
(3)…While the bears (including me) point to the LTM Switch EBITDA of $282M (2021 was $267M, 2020 was $238M), or a lofty 38x multiple at purchase. Overpaying for assets to deploy fee-earning AUM is generally a very bad strategy for your investors, over time.
Read 8 tweets
Diogenes Profile picture
Nov 16, 2022
And $LYV is still going to earn less than a $1 this year!
(2) And now the DoJ is apparently going to revisit the terms of its previous antitrust settlement with $LYV. Image
(3) Looking to see if the Company disclosed this in its recent 10-Q. I see no mention of this investigation in the “Litigation” section of Footnote #6. Would seem to be material. $LYV
Read 5 tweets

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