Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Apr 20, 2023 12 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Sanctions were supposed to deny Russia's ability to finance the war. But sanctions were delayed and it didn't happen. Now sanctions are finally starting to bite. At the end of 2022 liquid reserves were slightly above 1 month of import. More facts: 1/ Image
Before the invasion, Russia's reserves were $634B. Sanctions immobilize about $313B. This leaves Russia with $146B in gold and about $107B in FX assets (largely yuan). 2/
Russia’s economy faces an extended period of stagnation. There was essentially 0 productivity growth post-2014; now it will turn negative due to sanctions and war. Russian economy will further suffer due to emigration and brain drain. 3/ Image
Russia reports a record deficit of 2.4T rubles in 2023Q1 - 82% of the full-year budget target. December had a record single-month deficit of more than 4T rubles. Key drivers are revenue underperformance, notably oil and gas, and elevated expenditures due to the war. 4/ Image
Oil and gas revenues for January-March are 45% below their level the last year. Russia is increasing its tax on oil. However, this is estimated to bring about 600B - not even close to cover Ts in lost revenues. 5/
EU embargoes on crude oil (Dec. 5, 2022) and oil products (Feb. 5, 2023) were delayed. But now together with Europe’s exit from Russian gas, over 50% pre-invasion exports are sanctioned. The sanction gaps are East Asian democracies as well as China, India, and Turkey. 6/ Image
Russia was able to redirect crude oil to China, India, and Turkey. The exclusion of shipping services from the EU embargo allowed to keep Russian oil on the market. But Russia has had to accept heavy discounts. 7/ Image
Sanctions succeeded in maintaining oil market stability while reducing Russian export earnings. Global oil prices have returned to pre-full-scale invasion levels. Russia’s inability to find alternative buyers for its gas decreased gas production. 8/ Image
High prices and redirection to alternative buyers supported Russian exports. But total exports have weakened since 2022Q4 as energy prices moderated and additional sanctions took effect. In imports, Russia has not been able to replace EU and US trade. 9/ Image
KSE Institute expects significant declines in oil and gas export volumes (-12.9%, -27.9%) as well as prices (-32.6%, -49.4%) in 2023. 10/ ImageImage
KSE Institute projects that lower export volumes and prices will cut oil and gas earnings in half this year (41% for oil, 64% for gas). The current account surplus will narrow to $63 billion. This is a problem because Russian budget assumes $123 billion surplus. 11/ ImageImage
Sanctions are working. Slowly but surely. Let's add more. You can read the entire KSE Institute sanction chartbook and suggestions for further sanctions here kse.ua/wp-content/upl…

Thank you @KSE_Institute
@Nataliia_Shapo
@ben_hilgenstock @elinaribakova @JPavytska
12/12

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More from @Mylovanov

Feb 11
Russia praised him as a wounded war hero. He now says he shot himself in the leg so he wouldn’t go back to the war in Ukraine.

Officer Yevgeny Korobov: the only way out was dead or wounded.

He chose wounded, fled Russia, and faces up to 15 years for desertion — RFE/RL. 1/ Image
In 2022, Russian state TV staged a reunion with his mother and claimed he had saved his unit under fire.

Korobov says his commander embellished the story. He stood on stage in uniform while recovering from a self-inflicted gunshot wound and fearing they would send him back. 2/
He is a career officer and academy graduate who also served in Syria.

His brigade — the 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade — pushed toward Kyiv in early 2022. He says months at the front convinced him the only exit was death or injury. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Feb 11
Zelenskyy for Bloomberg: None of the sides is keen on the idea of a free economic zone in Donbas — neither the Russians nor us.

The next round is tentatively set for Tuesday or Wednesday in the US. There is understanding on ceasefire monitoring, but more work is needed.

1/ Image
Zelenskyy: I accepted a US offer to host talks next week; territory issue will be central.

Neither side is keen on a free economic zone. We have different views and will return with a clearer vision. If it is our territory — and it is — Ukraine must govern it.

2/
Zelenskyy: The war could end within months if negotiations proceed in good faith.

The Trump team proposes wrapping up talks by June. The US wants all documents signed at the same time.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Feb 11
Former MI6 Chief Moore: If we don't stand up to Putin and ensure that he does not win in Ukraine, then his stomach will grow with the eating.

He may test Europe in other ways. We have to stick by the Ukrainians. 1/
Moore: Behind Putin is Xi Jinping and the Chinese government.

Putin would have already have lost were it not for the Chinese support that he has garnered. Making sure that the Ukrainians win through in the end is absolutely vital. 2/
Moore: Putin is more comfortable than he should be. The casualties now are astonishing and even the Russians will struggle to replace that level of losses.

Putin has completely mortgaged the Russian economy to the war effort. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Feb 11
FT: Ukraine plans to announce elections on February 24 after the US told Kyiv to hold them by May 15 — or risk losing proposed US security guarantees.

At the same time, the Zelenskyy Office says elections are impossible without proper security conditions. 1/ Image
According to the FT, Kyiv is considering holding presidential elections alongside a national referendum on any peace deal with Russia.

Ukrainian and Western officials familiar with the discussions confirm active planning. 2/
The May 15 deadline comes amid White House pressure to finalize a peace framework by June.

Zelenskyy said on February 9 that Washington wants a “clear schedule” and aims to close the war before US midterm campaigning intensifies in November. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Feb 10
Russia knows it can’t create a second Ukrainian SSR. Its goal is the destruction of Ukraine — “Novorossiya,” LNR/DNR, “Malorossiya.”

Signs of genocide are clear, including deporting children, Ukrainian Institute of National Memory head Oleksandr Alfyorov for Ukrainska Pravda.1/
Alfyorov: “In Ukraine, Russia needs only two resources: history and children.”

Russia uses history as a weapon — through “Novorossiya,” “LNR,” “DNR,” “Malorossiya,” and the myth of a “fight against Nazism” to justify occupation and erase Ukrainian statehood.

2/
Alfyorov: “Russians violate territories with their markers and people.”

They glorify Soviet generals, invent imperial continuity, and turn memory into a tool that normalizes war, borders, and violence.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Feb 10
IOC banned Ukrainian skeleton racer from wearing helmet with faces of athletes killed by Russia at the Olympics.

Vladyslav Heraskevych: "The IOC is betraying those athletes who were part of the Olympic movement, not allowing them to be honored" — The Telegraph. 1/ Image
Heraskevych wore the helmet at Cortina d'Ampezzo.

On it: figure skater Dmytro Sharpar, killed defending Bakhmut in 2023. Weightlifter Alina Peregudova, 14, killed with her mother by russian shelling in Mariupol in 2022. Strongman Pavlo Ishchenko, killed in combat in 2025. 2/
Also: ice hockey player Oleksiy Loginov. Biathlete Yevhen Malyshev, killed in the Battle of Kharkiv in 2022.

Heraskevych: "Some of them were my friends. Despite precedents when the IOC allowed such tributes, this time they decided to set special rules just for Ukraine." 3/
Read 7 tweets

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