The 43% of US income tax filers earning $50k or less make up 10% of total income and pay -4.8% of federal income taxes (negative b/c they get a refundable credit on average).
The 10% of taxpayers earning $200k or more earn 44% of the total income and pay $80% of federal taxes.
Average federal income tax rates by income ranges...
Individual income taxes provided 54% of US federal government revenue, more than any other source.
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The market is currently saying that the Fed's 9th rate hike last week (to 4.75-5.00%) will be the last hike of this cycle, with a pause at the next FOMC meeting in May and rate cuts starting this summer...
Video:
(2) Room to Pause
The Fed seems to finally have room to pause, with the Fed Funds Rate above Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation), suggesting that monetary policy is entering a contractionary phase.
SVB and Signature were the 2nd and 3rd largest bank failures in US history. Only Washington Mutual was larger...
Video:
(2) Fears of Contagion
The 16% decline in the Regional Bank ETF last week was the 4th largest since its inception in 2006. Only the financial crisis (2008/09) and the covid crash (March 2020) saw larger weekly declines.
Congress could raise that limit but let's not pretend that will help "average Americans." There's no free lunch: more FDIC insurance = higher costs. Those with high balances should bear that cost.
Instead of raising the limit, the FDIC could offer insurance directly to depositors with balances above $250k for a bps fee on the balance they want to insure above $250k. If a bank fails, depositor receives immediate payment of insured deposits into new bank account.
FDIC could use capital ratios to determine the rates they charge for insurance at various banks. If a depositor wants to bank with a higher risk institution (ex: higher tier 1 leverage ratio), they would have to pay higher rates for insurance on their balances above $250k.
I think we'll know the answer soon, but a government bailout of SVB doesn't seem likely. Best outcome would be something similar to the Washington Mutual failure - quick sale to larger bank where all depositors are protected with full access to their money this week.
In that scenario, equity holders in $SIVB get wiped out, bondholders take a haircut, & depositors are made whole. If they don't sell & $SIVB is liquidated, depositors get first priority & would likely get a substantial portion back but would take time & cause run on other banks.