Charlie Bilello Profile picture
Chief Market Strategist @ Creative Planning Investor | Writer | Reader | Thinker Trying to become a little wiser every day.
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Sep 15, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
United Auto Workers proposal:
-40% increase in hourly pay over 4 years
-Reduced 4-day, 32-hour workweek
-Faster path to top pay
-Shift back to defined benefit pensions
-Cost-of-living adjustments
-5+ weeks of vacation, more paid holidays, extended parental leave "Ford said the automaker would have lost $14.4 billion over last four years if the current demands had been in effect, instead of recording nearly $30 billion in profits."
Jun 24, 2023 14 tweets 11 min read
New: The Week in Charts ‼
-- Hello $32 Trillion
-- Housing Shortage Deepens
-- If You Build It, They Will Come
-- A Q3 Recession?
-- The Downtown Downturn
-- Every Bear Market is Different
-- And more...
📺: (1a) Hello $32 Trillion

US National Debt has crossed above $32 trillion for the first time, $10 trillion higher than where it stood 4 years ago (45% increase).

Video: https://t.co/hA3aK9zeud https://t.co/sXHyJ5bDZh
twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
May 25, 2023 7 tweets 6 min read
Signal or Noise? Ep 3🚦🔊
-Debt Default Fears
-The Best Long-Term Investment
-Big Tech Getting Bigger
-You Can't Always Win
-How Important Are Equity Valuations?
-And More

w/@PeterMallouk
📺:

(1a) Debt Default Fears

The media has been bombarding us with headlines of a debt default Armageddon. Why that's not going to happen...

Video: twitter.com/i/web/status/1… ImageImage
May 8, 2023 8 tweets 6 min read
Signal or Noise? Ep 2🚦🚨
-A Crisis of Confidence
-Is College Still Worth the Cost?
-Sell in May and Go Away?
-Don't Fight the Fed?
-And More

w/@PeterMallouk

📺: @PeterMallouk (1) A Crisis of Confidence

The 2nd, 3rd, and 4th largest bank failures in history have occurred in the last 2 months. Americans haven't been this worried about their bank deposits since 2008.

How do we resolve this crisis of confidence?

Video: ImageImage
Mar 28, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
The year-over-year % increase in US Monthly Rent prices has moved down to 2.7%, the lowest since April 2021. With vacancy rates rising to their highest level in two years, we should see further declines in YoY rent growth in the coming months.
Mar 28, 2023 8 tweets 5 min read
New "Week in Charts" video is up...

(1) The Last Hike?

The market is currently saying that the Fed's 9th rate hike last week (to 4.75-5.00%) will be the last hike of this cycle, with a pause at the next FOMC meeting in May and rate cuts starting this summer...

Video: ImageImage
Mar 23, 2023 7 tweets 4 min read
New Video:

How to Think About Home Price Appreciation...

(1) Largest Part of Net Worth

Home Equity is the single largest component of the net worth of most Americans. And that's true across all age groups...

Video: Image
Mar 14, 2023 12 tweets 7 min read
The new "Week in Charts" video is up...

(1) A Run on the Bank

SVB and Signature were the 2nd and 3rd largest bank failures in US history. Only Washington Mutual was larger...

Video: Image
Mar 12, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
Median bank account balance in the US: $5,300.

FDIC insurance limit: $250,000.

Congress could raise that limit but let's not pretend that will help "average Americans." There's no free lunch: more FDIC insurance = higher costs. Those with high balances should bear that cost. Instead of raising the limit, the FDIC could offer insurance directly to depositors with balances above $250k for a bps fee on the balance they want to insure above $250k. If a bank fails, depositor receives immediate payment of insured deposits into new bank account.
Mar 12, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
Poll results on Silicon Valley Bank... $SIVB Image I think we'll know the answer soon, but a government bailout of SVB doesn't seem likely. Best outcome would be something similar to the Washington Mutual failure - quick sale to larger bank where all depositors are protected with full access to their money this week.
Feb 9, 2023 4 tweets 1 min read
Disney Net Income (Billions)...
2022: $3.3
2021: $3.1
2020: -$5.0
2019: $10.4
2018: $11.0
2017: $10.9
2016: $9.0
2015: $9.1
2014: $7.8
2013: $6.6
2012: $5.6
2011: $5.0
2010: $4.4
2009: $3.3
2008: $4.0
2007: $4.2
2006: $4.3
$DIS "Disney CEO Bob Iger on Wednesday announced a sweeping corporate restructuring that will result in 7,000 people losing their jobs as part of an effort to achieve $5.5 billion in cost savings."

$DIS stock up 5% after hours, what investors wanted to see...

nypost.com/2023/02/08/dis…
Jan 15, 2023 14 tweets 11 min read
New year, new video, new bio. Excited to join @CPIWealth to continue helping investors on their path. A lot more to come, but let's start with the charts and themes that told the story of 2022...

I. Starting off with a bang.

The first day of trading in 2022 felt very much like 2021 (new highs in S&P 500/Apple), but the similarities would end right there. The macro picture in 2022 was the polar opposite of 2021.

Video:
Dec 14, 2022 5 tweets 1 min read
Total Returns, Last 5 Years...
Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: +90%
S&P 500 $SPY: +64%
Gold $GLD: +41%
Russell 2000 $IWM: +28%
US Dollar Index $UUP: +19%
MSCI World ex-US $ACWX: +9%
Bitcoin $BTC: +7%
Treasury Bills $BIL: +5%
US Bonds $AGG: +2%
ARK Innovation ETF $ARKK: -0.3%
Oil $USO: -26% US consumer prices (CPI inflation) were up 21% over the last 5 years.
Nov 11, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
Performance of 3 strategies this year...
a) Buy S&P 500 when $VIX closes above 30, sell when $VIX closes below 20: +25.6%
b) Buy & Hold S&P 500: -15.9%
c) Buy S&P 500 when $VIX closes below 20, sell when $VIX closes above 30: -33.0% What this illustrates: buying weakness and selling strength has worked well this year and if you've been doing the opposite it's been a source of additional pain.

(1/2)
Oct 20, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
The longer the US funds the war in Ukraine, the longer the war goes on, the more lives are lost, the more the country is destroyed, the more people face starvation, and the higher the threat of nuclear war. But you're not allowed to say such things, so the status quo continues. The US has $31 trillion in national debt with the interest expense on that debt rising every single day and an economy that's slipping deeper into recession. And we're able/willing to write blank checks to fight an endless war against a country that has the most nuclear weapons?
Jul 20, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
The median sales price of an existing home in the US hit another all-time high in June ($416k), up 41% over the last 2 years. Image While home prices rose, sales continue to plummet, down 14% over the last year and at their lowest levels since June 2020.

Charting via @ycharts Image
Jul 12, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
The 3-Month Treasury Bill yield has moved up to 2.18%, its highest level in 3 years. It entered the year at 0.06%.

Charting via @ycharts The US yield curve spread between the 10-year and 3-month is down to 81 bps. If current Fed rate hike expectations are correct (75 bps in July, 50 bps in September, 50 bps in November), we could see an inversion before the end of the year.
Jun 23, 2022 6 tweets 3 min read
Congress just passed a bill that would give the Fed a 3rd mandate: use monetary policy to discriminate on basis of race until they achieve equality of outcome.

If you believe in the 14th amendment and all that it stands for, this is absolutely abhorrent.

congress.gov/bill/117th-con… The Fed has already become highly politicized with its invention of "inclusive monetary policy" and using it as a justification for not hiking rates in the face of an inflationary spiral last year. But the passage of this bill would endorse and codify it.

Jun 22, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
Senate Banking Committee today...

Q: "Do you believe that the $1.9 trillion spending package last year had any effect on inflation?"

J. Powell: "It's really not our job to pass judgment." Well, I suppose his job changed since last February...
Jun 15, 2022 5 tweets 2 min read
Once again, not a single question on the elephant in the room at the FOMC presser: the Fed/Government role in creating the situation we are in.

Supply chains & war blamed a # of times, but no mention of 0% rates, $5 trillion in bond purchases, and $7 trillion in national debt. We're just supposed to pretend all of that never happened and that we woke up one day in an inflationary spiral that had nothing to do with monetary or fiscal policy. And to top it off, we should commend them for hiking rates and saving us all from the situation they caused.
Jun 13, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
A big shift in rate hike expectations has taken place over the past week...

Market went from pricing in a 3% probability of 75 bps hike a week ago to 23% last Friday to over 80% today. Image Perspective: a 75 bps hike would merely bring the Fed Funds Rate back to where it was before the 2020 crash: 1.50%-1.75%. Given 8.6% inflation rate and 3.6% unemployment rate, that's still extraordinarily easy monetary policy.