You've probably seen how this looks for economics before. There's a large excess of p-values that are just shy of the significance threshold.
But that's nothing. Economics hasn't committed anywhere near the level of sinning medicine has.
Medicine isn't even the worst offender and they're already this bad.
Since nutrition is what got me interested in this, here's how they fare:
Sorry about the scale, but that's just what p-hacking does. It's just that bad.
Now part of this may be down to economists reporting way more tests, and way more values, so their literature doesn't look as bad. But they still tend to focus on the marginal results that pile up near 0.05 even if they publish a bunch of less dodgy p-values.
No field is safe.
On the subject of p-hacking, this might be one of my favorite pictures showing how it works out: researchers don't report unless p < 0.05 and they prefer positive results.
The severity of COVID vaccine-related myocarditis was far lower than the severity of COVID-related myocarditis, which instead looked like regular viral myocarditis.
You can see this in many cohorts. For example, this was seen in France:
And we knew this based on somewhat larger Scandinavian register-based work as well
Do note, however, that the Scandinavian work had a poor case definition for infection-driven myocarditis compared to other cohorts. As the long-term study linked in the QT shows, they missed most
A friend of mine won a bet about myocarditis and the COVID vaccines a few years ago.
He bet that the myocarditis side effect was real and sizable for young men.
While COVID was more likely to cause myocarditis in general, among the young, the Moderna vaccine was a bit worse.
This still wasn't really something to worry about.
Look at the rates. They're incredibly small, at just about 15 per 1,000,000 under 40 years of age for the second dose of the Moderna vaccine and 3 per 1,000,000 for the Pfizer one.
Compare to whole-population COVID-myocarditis.
The vaccines were safe and effective, but this side effect was not all hype, as some health authorities jumped to claim.
Oh well, lessons learned. Hopefully.
Worth noting, though, that the vaccines still saved more lives than were harmed. ~15-20m lives by late 2022, in fact.
With so many people identifying themselves as having disorders that they're not diagnosed with, the U.K. will certainly have a glut of diagnoses in the near future.
People think it, and then make it so, and if the state honors those diagnoses, they'll end up paying out the nose.
Similarly, in Minnesota, the state recognizes clearly fraudulent autism diagnoses.
Who's doing them? Normal parents, but also certain communities.
For example, Somali immigrants have figured out how to get more welfare funds by getting their kids fake diagnoses.
As a result, fraud cases have opened up and the FBI has begun to investigate the Somali communities where autism funds are getting disproportionately directed.
In 2009, Minnesota Somalis had an autism rate about 7x the non-Somali average. Today, it's still high, at just over 3x.