kumar saurabh Profile picture
Apr 22 9 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
#CNXIT History of IT Sector in India: A data-based perspective

In last 1.5 years, we witnessed a heavy price correction in IT sector. This is evident from CNXIT index movement which is 32% down in last 1.5 years (we kept cautioning repeatedly then) Image
Now, sector is also facing headwinds. Typically, this is how market behaves. Market is always ahead of reality. It tops when valuations highlight major froth, smart money slowly exits n new entrants think they know it all, are scapegoats. Companies r lowering their guidance. ImageImage
Within a year, we have come from healthy double digit growth to low to mid single digit growth projection. Question is - Is it something new or there is something to learn from history?
History is an interesting subject and price is the first guide. Lets us look at history
When we look at IT index history, we realize that current correlation is not 1st one. The last major correction happened in 2014-16 when CNXIT was 25% down for 2 years. This was the time when current 50x stocks were available at 15x and still there was lot of pessimism. Image
Do you know why CNXIT went through such correction? Let me give you some hints. Below is the table which provides global IT spending data for last 19 years. Look what happened to global IT spending during 2014-16 period on 1- and 3-year CAGR. It went through its worst -2 to -5% Image
Also, what is noteworthy about it is that 2021 was a year of record high global IT spending. The last such spending happened just before 2008 recession. Now, again, we are talking about recession. Call it co-incidence or whatever but data always throws important stuff. Image
Let me throw one more interesting data stuff. I tried to find correlation between global IT spending YoY growth rate and few more indicators and found 91% strong correlation between global IT spending YoY growth and this indicator. Image
This is just one of the interesting insights among many we are covering in our IT sector super session where we already had 1 session and there are 2-3 more sessions planned to cover this sector in utmost detail. Want to know more, join us here: learn.scientificinvesting.in/learn/IT Image
End of thread. Like and retweet if you like our work and data driven approach to decipher facts - fundamental, technical, quants @ScientificInve6
Link to Webinar: learn.scientificinvesting.in/learn/IT

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More from @suru27

Apr 21
#KMC My 10 min work. Thanks for initiating idea @Coolfundoo as this was not the stock I was mentioning.

Whenever I get new idea, i pass it to some of my in built tools and back of envelope calculation to check if its worth deep diving as we cant go in detail on evert stock
Coming to KMC, it has gone through major asset expansion in last 2 years and at visible potential, it should have Rs 100 Cr of net fixed asset Image
If we look at history, peak net fixed asset turnover has been 2.4 which means, it can do peak sales of Rs 240 cr (say achievable in 3 years from current TTM Rs 147 Cr, thats how usually hospitals scale) Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 21
🧵A thread on Scientific Investing YouTube credibility report of last 1 year (important as fin-influencers are termed as stock peddlers on SM).
Link: youtube.com/ScientificInve…

16 stocks n sectors discussed with positive bias since 2022 had a mean return on 24% till today
💡 31% of stocks/sectors discussed have > 50% return till today with mean 77% return

💡 38% of stocks/sectors discussed have >0% return with mean 8% return

💡31% of stocks/sectors discussed < 0% return with mean -8% return
1. Karur Vysya Bank (50 to 100): 100%
2. Neuland Labs (1100 to 2000): 80%
3. City Union Bank (125 to 200 to 125): 0%
4. Aegis Logistic (210 to 390): 80%
5. Jash Engineering (570 to 900 to 830): 70%
6. SJS (410 to 540 to 410): 0%
7. FINO (250 to 210): -17%
Read 10 tweets
Mar 3
We all love @dspmf Netra and Tathya reports and here is latest one: dspim.co/NetMar23

Want to understand these reports in detail and extract best out of them, follow this🧵

At Scientific Investing, we hosted Sahil Kapoor @SahilKapoor from DSP to discuss these reports
and much more including macro, markets, budget, data, inflation, recession, interest rate, demand etc. Here is discussion summary:

💡Reasons Behind Netra and Tathya

👉Track 50 markets daily to monitor outliers & further studying macroeconomic data

👉 Macroeconomics is
at times very subjective and misused with too much focus on forecasting

👉What will impact the market is very important

👉 Tathya is compendium of 50+ indicators divided into 5 macroeconomic sections to understand various parts of economy at times very subjective
Read 34 tweets
Feb 1
#SouthIndianBank Bank101: How security receipts and NPA pool selling transactions with ARCs work. Gold learning for me on the detailing and thanks to Tushar Sarda for asking 1/n

#Q3FY23 #ConcallInsights with Scientific Investing. Give us a shoutout if our work helps🙏
More on same
Read 5 tweets
Jan 31
#SouthIndianBank An interesting personal trivia on South Indian Bank

As added, this at ~Rs 8.4 and get credit from few friends, sharing this trivia. While working as financial consultant in 2013, one of colleague joined from ICICI & his ex-boss was current SIB CEO. 1/n
We did discuss about his experience under previous boss etc. Then, I moved on to another company. In this company, my reporting boss was the one who hired/managed the same gentleman in his previous company. So, I knew someone who reported and someone who managed in terms 2/n
of some discussion over current SIB CEO through these discussions. The day I read, Mr. X joining bank as CEO, those discussions flashed in memory and then, it took almost 8 months of tracking, enquiring further to know about the risks. Further, when the story and charts 3/n
Read 5 tweets
Jan 18
IT CEOs vs Fresher's Salary: Myth vs Reality

If you do not look at data properly, it can hide right things and reveal wrong things. However, looking at data "properly" needs quite some effort which many do not want to do and social media has only worsened this trend of
providing the fastest information (let me bluntly say cut, copy, paste). The current data shared is a prime example of the same. So, let us look at this data. Few observations:
1. Absolute numbers may hide lot of things and there was no focus on metric like CAGR because it would
hide all the sensation.
2. No outlier treatment of the data (look at detailing of Infosys in 2012), that is must when one does this kind of exercise.

3. Salary hike is a performance exercise; however, no attention was given to performance analysis.

So, let me do this exercise
Read 13 tweets

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