George Mack Profile picture
Apr 22 26 tweets 7 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The most useful razors and rules I've found.

Rules of thumb that simplify decisions: Image
The Bloom-Bilal Rule:

If bored and struggling with ideas -- keep walking until the day becomes interesting.

(via @SahilBloom + @bzaidi) Image
Bragging Razor:

• If someone brags about their success or happiness, assume it’s half what they claim.

• If someone downplays their success or happiness, assume it’s double what they claim.

The map is not the terrain.
Instagram Razor:

When you see a photo of an influencer looking attractive on Instagram -- assume there are 99 worse variations of that photo you haven't seen.

They just picked the best one.
Gell-Mann Razor:

Assume every media article contains a % of false information.

Sandbox the article from your worldview until you've:

1. Seen primary sources

2. Spoken to 3 domain experts
Taleb's Surgeon:

If presented with two equal candidates for a role, pick the one with the least amount of charisma.

The uncharismatic one has got there despite their lack of charisma.

The charismatic one has got there with the aid of their charisma.
Network Razor:

If you have 2 quality people that would benefit from an intro to one another, always do it.

"Networks don't divide as you share them, they multiply" - @ChrisWillx
High Agency Razor:

If unsure who to work with, pick the person that has the best chances of breaking you out of a 3rd world prison.
Mack's Rule:

Break down the investments your parents made in you: Time, Love, Energy, and Money.

If they are still alive, aim to hit a positive return on investment (or at least break even.)
Narccism Razor:

If worried about people's opinions, remember they are too busy worrying about other people's opinions of them.

99% of the time you're an extra in someone else's movie

H/T - @waitbutwhy Image
Luck Razor:

If stuck with 2 equal options, pick the one that feels like it will produce the most luck later down the line.

I used this razor to go for drinks with a stranger rather than watch Netflix.

In hindsight, it was the highest ROI decision I've ever made.
Cummings Razor:

When confused by politicians' decision-making, remind yourself of this tweet.

They rarely use metrics or dashboards to guide decisions like CEO's.

Instead, they react to random news stories each day.

(h/t @balajis) Image
Munger's Law:

• Never allow yourself to have an opinion on a subject unless you can state the opposing argument better than the opposition can.

Steelman Arguments > Strawman Arguments
Everyday Razor:

1. If you go from doing a task weekly to daily, you achieve 7 years of output in 1 year.

2. If you apply a 1% compound interest each time, you achieve 54 years of output in 1 year Image
Skinner's Law:

If procrastinating, 2 ways to solve it:

1. Make the pain of inaction > Pain of action

2. Make the pleasure of action > Pleasure of inaction
Bezos Razor:

If unsure what action to pick, let your 90-year-old self on death bed choose it it.
Branding Rule:

The more tattoos people have of something, the bigger the brand is.

People branding themselves is the best sign a brand exists. ImageImageImageImage
Deutsch's Rule:

If it doesn't deny the law of physics, it's possible.

Do not confuse society's current lack of knowledge -- with this knowledge being impossible to attain.

E.g. The smartphone seems impossible to someone from the 1800s -- but it was just a lack of knowledge.
Buffett's Law:

"The value of every business is 100% subject to interest rates" - Warren Buffett

via @FoundersPodcast Image
Perell's Hotel Bathroom Principle:

If unsure what to wear:

"Always dress well enough to walk into any bathroom at a hotel you're not staying at and get away with it." - @david_perell Image
Naval's Razor:

If a task is worth less than your ambitious hourly rate - outsource, automate, or delete it.
Jocko's Razor:

• The more uncomfortable the activity, the more likely it will lead to growth.

• The more comfortable the activity, the more likely it will lead to stagnation.

1000 uncomfortable hours > 10,000 comfortable hours
Graham's Rule:

Combat identity bias by identifying publicly as having a small identity.

Identity bias will work in your favor -- and prevent you from getting identity bias.
The Early-Late Razor:

If it's a talking point on Reddit or Twitter, you might be early.

If it's a talking point on LinkedIn or Facebook, you're definitely late.
Walt Disney's Rule:

• If struggling to think clearly about a subject, draw it out.

Here's Walt Disney's drawing he made in 1957 of the Media Empire he wanted to build.

It's iconic. Image
PS. If you enjoyed this, then you should join 30K+ people in my Clouds & Dirt newsletter.

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More from @george__mack

Apr 20
Human behavior simplified:

1. The pleasure of action > the pleasure of inaction, the person will do it.

2. The pain of action > the pain of inaction, the person will not do it.

If you want to change behavior, crank up the pain-pleasure dial.
E.g. If every time you don't do {insert positive behavior}, you owe a friend $50 and they mock you.

You've stacked financial and social pain vs the pain of doing the behavior.
Even extreme "selfless" acts follow the pain-pleasure dial if you look closely:

1. The pain of a soldier jumping on a bomb to save comrades > The pain of the soldier seeing his comrades die.

2. The pleasure of having a child > The pleasure of not going through childbirth
Read 4 tweets
Apr 17
I tried every meditation and gratitude exercise.

It was ok but nothing game-changing.

So I designed my own via first principles -- I find it 10x better.

Here's how it works: Image
Here's what I felt was missing from meditation and gratitude:

1. Change behavior - Action > Feels.

2. Long-term thinking - Take a longer-term approach to worldviews.

3. View self in 3rd person - View self more objectively —psychedelics without the downsides of drugs.
Disclaimers:

1. This must be done alone as it requires intense visualization.

2. Don't start the exercise until you've focused on breathing for 20 reps.

Ready?

Let's begin...
Read 22 tweets
Apr 13
I turn 29 today.

I tried answering this question:

What non-obvious lessons would I give my younger self?

Here's 29 of them: Image
1. The Western Blindspot:

• Amazon has thousands of books on how to be a good parent.

• There's almost 0 books on how to be a good son or daughter.

This represents a selfish blindspot in Western society.

You have to correct it for yourself before it's too late. Image
2, Be Like Japan:

When I ask people where they want to travel to: 90% say Japan

Japan practiced an isolationist policy called Sakoku for 265 years. They largely cut off the outside world resulting in a unique culture.

Once per quarter, practice Sakoku for a week. Image
Read 31 tweets
Apr 6
What weird idea do you think is true?

Here's mine: Cognitive biases are hidden superpowers.

The 10 best examples: Image
My problem with the term "Cognitive Bias":

1. It's pessimistic - It assumes humans are stupid. Actually, we're the only thing in the universe we're aware of with consciousness

2. It's low agency - It assumes cognitive biases use you. Rather than tools to be used.

Let's go... Image
1. Planning Fallacy:

Your projects will take 2x the length of time you planned for. You'll always be late.

Reframed: Pick a time frame you'd be happy with. Set the deadline to be 1/2 that. If planning fallacy kicks in, you'll hit the time you were happy with.
Read 16 tweets
Apr 3
14 thoughts on predicting future trends:
Rule of thumb:

If it's a talking point on Reddit, you're probably early.

If it's a talking point on LinkedIn, you're definitely late.
Study the directional arrows of progress.

Every time computers get more powerful, smaller, and closer to our bodies.

You can use the trendlines to predict what's next.

(Hint - it's gonna be smaller, more powerful, and nearer your brain)
Read 16 tweets
Apr 1
What idea changed how you view the world?

Here's mine: High Agency.

The 12 best examples:
The best example of high agency:

The guy in this video.

Watch how the low-agency crowd goes from judgmental to joining in, once everyone else deems it acceptable.
What is high agency?

@EricRWeinstein was the first person I heard about it from.

It's one of those ideas that once you see it, you can't unsee it.
Read 14 tweets

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