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Ian Ellis Profile picture
@ianellisjones
Apr 23, 2023 • 11 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
🚨Major military activity continues in the Pacific.

Updated map & new developments:

- China: 2 new military exercises underway
- First time 2 Chinese aircraft carriers operate simultaneously
- Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group enters Pacific
- 18 Russian ships pass near Japan Image
Militaries from the US, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Australia, China, Russia, & North Korea are exercising & operating in the Western Pacific this weekend.

This is not being reported by the media.

I researched for hours so you can get up to speed in minutes.
1. China announced 2 new military exercises near Qingdao in the Yellow Sea & Hainan in the South China Sea.

This is in addition to the "major military activity" that took place on Tuesday.

The drills are underway, ongoing for over 24 hours, & expected to end on 23-24 April.
2. Chinese media is reporting that the Liaoning aircraft carrier is operating in the Western Pacific, in addition to the Shandong CSG.

*If* this reporting is true, it would be the first time 2 Chinese aircraft carriers were operating in the Pacific together at the same time. Image
3. Carl Vinson CSG completed training in the Hawaiian Islands operating area "in preparation for an upcoming deployment."

The ships & aircraft of the CSG, led by its flagship, USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70), are made up of more than 5,000 Sailors & will deploy in Pacific @US7thFleet.
4. Japan's Ministry of Defense issued a press release stating that 18 Russian ships transited the Soya Strait & entered the Sea of Japan on 19-20 April.
5. The US Embassy in Thailand released a statement that the Nimitz CSG will visit Thailand from 24-29 April.

Over the past ~2 weeks, the Nimitz CSG transited from South Korea to the Eastern Coast of Taiwan, operating in the Philippine Sea before moving to the South China Sea. Image
6. US Air Force advanced aircraft arrived at Kadena Air Base, Japan, on 22 April.

Kadena is a USAF base located ~650km off the coast of China and is often referred to as the "Keystone of the Pacific" because of its highly strategic location.
7. Japan puts military on alert fearing North Korean missile launch on Saturday.

"Japan ordered its military on Saturday to prepare to shoot down a North Korean ballistic missile after Pyongyang said this week it was ready to launch its first military spy satellite." Image
8. Planned combined military exercises & ongoing operations continue until 28 April between:

- The US, Japan, South Korea, & Taiwan in the East China Sea, Philippine Sea, & Sea of Japan.

- The US, Philippines, & Australia in the Philippine Sea & South China Sea for #Balikatan23
9. Tracking other US Naval Assets in the region:

- Ronald Reagan CSG forward-deployed in Yokosuka, Japan
- America Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) in Sasebo, Japan
- Makin Island ARG underway in the Philippine Sea
- USS Chung Hoon departed Subic Bay, Philippines

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More from @ianellisjones

Ian Ellis Profile picture
May 4
New images show massive “Manta Ray” underwater drone underway 👀

The extra-large uncrewed underwater vehicle (UUV) demonstrates “first-of-kind capabilities” for a new class of long-duration, long-range, payload-capable UUVs.

DARPA is engaging with the U.S. Navy on next steps. Image
The Manta Ray prototype uncrewed underwater vehicle (UUV) built by Northrop Grumman completed full-scale, in-water testing off the coast of Southern California in February & March 2024. Testing demonstrated at-sea hydrodynamic performance, including submerged operations using all the vehicle’s modes of propulsion & steering: buoyancy, propellers, & control surfaces.
“Our successful, full-scale Manta Ray testing validates the vehicle’s readiness to advance toward real-world operations after being rapidly assembled in the field from modular subsections,” said Dr. Kyle Woerner, DARPA program manager for Manta Ray.

“The combination of cross-country modular transportation, in-field assembly, & subsequent deployment demonstrates a first-of-kind capability for an extra-large UUV.”Image
Read 6 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
May 4
Rare sighting of USS JIMMY CARTER (SSN 23) coming into San Diego for a quick turn.

The Seawolf-class nuclear-powered fast attack sub is regarded as the most secretive sub in the U.S. Navy & specially modified for covert seabed warfare.

Much is a mystery—but here’s what we know: Image
Source/credit:
Larger & more advanced than the other two Seawolf boats, USS JIMMY CARTER (SSN 23) has likely been tasked with some of the U.S. Navy’s most secretive missions. 

It’s also the only one modified for seabed warfare – unreported missions deep below the waters that can target critical infrastructure such as power cables, telecom cables, & natural resource extraction systems.Image
Read 10 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
May 3
“Over my last 3 years, the security environment has changed drastically — & not in a good way.”

Adm. Aquilino, in his final public interview in uniform after a 40-year career 👇

⑴ “The main theme that’s really concerning — & that everyone has to see — is it links authoritarian nations [China, Russia, DPRK] in ways that we haven’t seen in our history in a long time.”

⑵ China has “expanded their military capability, their verbalization is more aggressive, & their actions are more aggressive. & they’ve now accelerated to dangerous. Perhaps most dangerous in the Philippines.”

⑶ Beijing “clearly made a risk determination that taking aggressive actions is within their interest & to the benefit of their strategic objectives. More aggressive rhetoric & certainly more aggressive actions.”

Admiral (soon to be retired) John Aquilino most recently served as Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. Quick thread with a few more clips & quotes:
Interview by @nickschifrin & great thread with highlights (+ link to full video)
“Chinese actions are certainly destabilizing to the region... they are putting at risk the Philippine Coast Guardsmen, sailors, & those fishermen that operate in their exclusive economic zone — within the full rights of the Philippines.”
Read 10 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
May 1
China is surging ships in the South China Sea, spying & shadowing in Philippine territory, sending aircraft & stationing warships around Taiwan.

Beijing could ramp up military activity before or after Taiwan’s presidential inauguration on 20 May.

New map & security snapshot 🧵 Image
As we enter summer exercise season, when cross-Strait weather is ideal for military operations, there’s significant firepower in the region.
2024 YTD & April data: Image
Read 12 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Apr 29
In the most hotly contested waterway in the world, the risk of Asia’s next war hinges increasingly on a ramshackle ship...

“Sierra Madre has become the epicenter of escalating tensions between the Philippines & China—a trip wire that could draw the U.S. into an armed conflict”🔥
China claims the vast majority of the South China Sea and, in recent months, has ramped up efforts to prevent the Philippines from providing supplies to personnel aboard the Sierra Madre. Analysis of ship-tracking data and videos over the past year shows that Chinese coast guard and militia ships have repeatedly swarmed and collided with Philippine resupply vessels. The Chinese vessels have also increasingly deployed water cannons at close-range, at times disabling Philippine ships and injuring sailors.

China has spent the past three decades expanding its presence in the South China Sea, a strategic waterway through which a third of global shipping passes, according to the United Nations. Beijing may not intend to start a war here, analysts say, but repeated confrontations at sea between vessels have raised the potential for fateful accidents, also potentially provoking a U.S. response.

Source: WaPoImage
“The United States has significantly increased its deployment of Navy personnel in the Philippines in direct response to the situation at the Sierra Madre, said a U.S. State Department official.”
Read 8 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Apr 27
New map — Major military activity in the Indo-Pacific:

- 1/3 of US Navy Fleet in theater
- Balikatan underway, many major firsts
- Taiwan inauguration May 20 & potential Chinese response
- Increased PLA military activity around Taiwan, 120+ ships in SCS

What you need to know 🧵 Image
Tracking heightened & steady Chinese PLA military activity in 2024, highlighted by a balloon barrage in January, encircling Kinmen island in February, increasing frequency, scale, & scope of drills in March, & surging warships to end April.
Approximately 40 U.S. Navy ships are in the Indo-Pacific theater, including 2x carrier strike groups (1x deployed & underway near Thailand) & 2x amphibious ready groups (1x deployed & underway in the Philippines). Image
Read 11 tweets

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