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Ian Ellis Profile picture
@ianellisjones
Apr 23, 2023 • 11 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
🚨Major military activity continues in the Pacific.

Updated map & new developments:

- China: 2 new military exercises underway
- First time 2 Chinese aircraft carriers operate simultaneously
- Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group enters Pacific
- 18 Russian ships pass near Japan Image
Militaries from the US, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Australia, China, Russia, & North Korea are exercising & operating in the Western Pacific this weekend.

This is not being reported by the media.

I researched for hours so you can get up to speed in minutes.
1. China announced 2 new military exercises near Qingdao in the Yellow Sea & Hainan in the South China Sea.

This is in addition to the "major military activity" that took place on Tuesday.

The drills are underway, ongoing for over 24 hours, & expected to end on 23-24 April.
2. Chinese media is reporting that the Liaoning aircraft carrier is operating in the Western Pacific, in addition to the Shandong CSG.

*If* this reporting is true, it would be the first time 2 Chinese aircraft carriers were operating in the Pacific together at the same time. Image
3. Carl Vinson CSG completed training in the Hawaiian Islands operating area "in preparation for an upcoming deployment."

The ships & aircraft of the CSG, led by its flagship, USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70), are made up of more than 5,000 Sailors & will deploy in Pacific @US7thFleet.
4. Japan's Ministry of Defense issued a press release stating that 18 Russian ships transited the Soya Strait & entered the Sea of Japan on 19-20 April.
5. The US Embassy in Thailand released a statement that the Nimitz CSG will visit Thailand from 24-29 April.

Over the past ~2 weeks, the Nimitz CSG transited from South Korea to the Eastern Coast of Taiwan, operating in the Philippine Sea before moving to the South China Sea. Image
6. US Air Force advanced aircraft arrived at Kadena Air Base, Japan, on 22 April.

Kadena is a USAF base located ~650km off the coast of China and is often referred to as the "Keystone of the Pacific" because of its highly strategic location.
7. Japan puts military on alert fearing North Korean missile launch on Saturday.

"Japan ordered its military on Saturday to prepare to shoot down a North Korean ballistic missile after Pyongyang said this week it was ready to launch its first military spy satellite." Image
8. Planned combined military exercises & ongoing operations continue until 28 April between:

- The US, Japan, South Korea, & Taiwan in the East China Sea, Philippine Sea, & Sea of Japan.

- The US, Philippines, & Australia in the Philippine Sea & South China Sea for #Balikatan23
9. Tracking other US Naval Assets in the region:

- Ronald Reagan CSG forward-deployed in Yokosuka, Japan
- America Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) in Sasebo, Japan
- Makin Island ARG underway in the Philippine Sea
- USS Chung Hoon departed Subic Bay, Philippines

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More from @ianellisjones

Ian Ellis Profile picture
Dec 12
🚨 China quietly carried out a sweeping military operation this week in the Western Pacific — its largest naval deployment in decades.

Taiwan defense officials called the unannounced exercise staggering, unprecedented, and extremely rare.

Here’s everything you need to know 🧵 Image
Earlier this week, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted a massive joint military exercise around the Taiwan Strait and Western Pacific, targeting the entire first island chain.

Taiwan’s military spokesperson said the scale of the naval deployment was the largest since the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis. In a notable first, Eastern, Northern, and Southern Theater Commands participated together in coordination.
The PLA designated 7 reserved airspace zones east of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces, spanning more than 800 miles along the first island chain (which extends south from Japan and through Taiwan to the Philippines).
Read 11 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Dec 9
Admiral Paparo: “I remain confident that we’d prevail in a conflict with the PRC over Taiwan...

And, in fact, the PRC also doubts their own ability to prevail in such a conflict...

That doesn’t negate that if they decided there would have to be a war of necessity, they’re going at tremendous risk to themselves...

Our concern is that the margin — expressed in risk of succeeding, lost lives, lost capability, lost money, and lost time — is eroding.”
Adm. Paparo, Commander of @INDOPACOM, speaking at the Reagan National Defense Forum, says the U.S. needs to double down on:
Response when asked about stationing U.S. troops on Taiwan:

“U.S. troops on Taiwan has the tremendous risk of tripping China’s 2005 Anti-Secession Law...

However, defensive services is an element of the Taiwan Relations Act...

So, I don’t discuss U.S. presence on Taiwan...”
Read 5 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Dec 2
A lot going on in the Indo-Pacific — a few things you may have missed last week 🧵

- Chinese balloons are back around Taiwan
- China + Russia conduct 9th joint strategic aerial patrol
- Largest swarm of Chinese ships ever near Philippines’ Thitu island
- Taiwan intercepts China Coast Guard ships in Kinmen’s restricted waters
- Three PRC research vessels enter the Philippines’ EEZ
- CCG carries out intrusive patrols in Malaysia’s EEZ
- Taiwan’s President lands in Hawaii, irking Beijing
- U.S. approves $320 million arms sale to Taiwan

China could launch military drills, or exercise “Joint Sword C,” in response. More info + sources below.Image
Chinese balloons are back—

After a 7+ month hiatus, Taiwan detected at least 6 Chinese balloons entering its air defense ID zone (ADIZ) over the last week.

From December 2023 to April 2024, China sent an unprecedented 102 balloons over and around the island. Image
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China debuts H-6N bomber & conducts strategic aerial patrol with Russia in the Sea of Japan, East China Sea, and WESTPAC—

For the first time, China employed the H-6N strategic bomber in the patrol. The H-6N is “emblematic of the strategic transformation of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force” and capable of long-range operations, aerial refueling, and carrying nuclear weapons.

It is the 9th patrol organized by the two militaries since 2019 and the 2nd this year.Image
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Read 9 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Nov 12
New details from DOD — U.S. Navy repels multiple Iranian-backed Houthi attacks:

- Destroyers USS Stockdale (DDG 106) & USS Spruance (DDG 111), part of the Lincoln CSG, were attacked while transiting the BAM on 11 Nov
- Included at least 8x one-way attack drones, 5x anti-ship ballistic missiles, & 3x anti-ship cruise missiles
- Despite reports, aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) (recently in the Gulf of Aden) was not targeted
- Successfully engaged & defeated with no injuries or damage

“CENTCOM forces retain the inherent right of self-defense & will take appropriate steps to protect our personnel.” —Pentagon Press Sec
“On November 11th, U.S. Central Command forces successfully repelled multiple Iranian-backed Houthi attacks during a transit of the Bab el Mandeb Strait. During the transit, the Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers USS Stockdale and USS Spruance were attacked by at least eight one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems, five anti-ship ballistic missiles, and three anti-ship cruise missiles, which were successfully engaged and defeated.

The vessels were not damaged. No personnel were hurt. Again, CENTCOM forces retain the inherent right of self-defense, and as I highlighted earlier, will take appropriate steps to protect our personnel.”
“This is the second time the two independently-deployed destroyers have come under Houthi fire. The Houthis also launched an attack in late September against the two destroyers, as well as USS Indianapolis (LCS-17), USNI News previously reported.”
Read 6 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Nov 11
Updated chart visualizing Chinese PLA incursions into Taiwan’s air defense ID zone (ADIZ) this year.

The record-breaking surge began in May following President Lai’s inauguration. By August, ADIZ incursions had already surpassed 2023 totals — with the tally now 1,000+ higher. Image
First iteration:
“This is not a slide that comes out of @PACAF, but I do like it and I use it for this purpose.

You know we see this bullying taking place in the air domain: two lines on the chart. The one that’s in orange shows the air defense identification zone or ADIZ — incursions that the PLA has conducted against Taiwan in 2023. And while that slope is fairly constant, it just shows a persistent presence and pressure being put on the Taiwans. The blue line, or the green, depending on how this shows up for you, is 2024. And you notice in May, when President Lai was inaugurated, the slope on that line took about a 3x rise.

And again, just indications of how the bullying and threatening behaviors continue to be exhibited.” —Gen. Kevin Schneider
Read 6 tweets
Ian Ellis Profile picture
Oct 24
The U.S. Marine Corps’ XQ-58A Valkyrie, a highly autonomous, long-range, low-cost tactical unmanned platform, completed its 4th test flight & “effectively demonstrated its capabilities as a forward deployed sensing platform — providing critical threat targeting data to USMC 5th-generation aircraft to rapidly close advanced kill chains.”Image
Multi-domain test event “Emerald Flag” provides opportunity for XQ-58A to demonstrate tactical data link integration (Source: USMC) Image
“A test Kratos XQ-58A Valkyrie unmanned combat aerial vehicle deployed last week in a first-ever joint force data link integration test during Emerald Flag 2024 last week.

The Marine Corps’ “Loyal Wingman” drone provides targeting data to F-35Bs and other aircraft.” @Aaron_MatthewIL
Read 5 tweets

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