A few comments to questions raised about the graphic of the publicly known Ukrainian Spring Offensive brigades:
1) most self-propelled artillery is assigned to artillery brigades, which can fire with 60-80 howitzers on a russian position. AFAIK one artillery brigade will 1/7
support every three combat brigades in the offensive, which means russian positions will get hit far harder than if each brigade had its own self-propelled artillery battalion. 2) the graphic is based on a slide from the Pentagon leaks that is all over twitter. The delivered
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equipment is from @oryxspioenkop's list. In short: all of this s public info. 3) Of course the Ukrainians might have reorganized some the brigades since they returned from training in NATO countries. I don't know; and if I knew you know that I wouldn't let you know about it.
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4) Pairing Ukraine's best IFVs, the Bradley M2A2 ODS-SA, with ancient T-55S tanks in 47th Mechanized Brigade makes sense. Each Bradley comes with 10 TOW-2A/B anti-tank missiles, which means the brigade doesn't need main battle tanks to fight russian tanks. The Bradleys
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out-range and out-shoot all russian tanks. The T-55S will be used as assault guns to blow up russian infantry positions. 5) The wild mix of vehicles is absolutely irrelevant to the success of the offensive. Those vehicles need to be in the fight for 2-3 weeks. Yes, Western
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armies all try to have very few vehicles, but that is a cost-cutting measure dictated by pennypinchers in the finance ministries. For the offensive Ukraine needs all and will use all vehicles it can get. Right now the mix of vehicles in the brigades doesn't matter.
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All that matters is: to they work? do they protect? are there enough? is there enough fuel? is there enough ammo?
Have a look at Croatia's & Israel's war of independence. You TAKE all weapons into service. Only after the war you sort out the ones you can't maintain longterm.
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I compared my list of known Ukrainian combat brigades with a list of Ukrainian brigades currently at the front.
Result: Ukraine has 30x combat brigades, 6x artillery, 5x territorial defense (TDF), and 4x national guard (NG) brigades in the rear - that's 155,000+ troops.
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As combat brigades I count:
• 15x mechanized
• 3x motorized
• 3x tank
• 2x marine
• 1x jaeger
• 1x mountain assault
• 1x air assault
• 4x offensive guard
Besides these and the 6x artillery brigades I count:
• 1x air assault regiment
• 1x special forces regiment
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• 2x MLRS regiments
This doesn't mean that all these units will be taking part in the Ukrainian spring offensive.
I.e. the TDF and NG brigades are guarding the border with Belarus and Moldova. Some of the combat brigades are reserve units along the front, while some are in
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Here comes the thread about anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) guidance systems 🧵:
Thursday I did a thread about ATGM warheads & a thread about non-guided anti-tank rockets like the AT4 or Panzerfaust 3 (I will link these threads below); but now it's time for the big ones.
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Let's begin with the Semi-Automatic Command to Line Of Sight (SACLOS) missiles, which we have to divide in two groups:
Simplified explanation of Semi-Automatic Command to Line Of Sight:
• "Semi" = the gunner has to aim at the target / keep it in his line of sight from launch to impact.
• "Automatic Command" = the launch unit tracks the missile and automatically sends steering commands to
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Earlier I did a thread about the two types of warhead anti-tank weapons carried by infantry use: HEAT and EFP warheads (link in the next tweet).
Now a thread about 🧵:
trajectories, fuzes and tandem warheads of anti-tank rockets and missiles; and reactive and ceramic armor.
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If you have not yet read my HEAT and EFP thread - please do so now. I have linked it here:
Almost all anti-tank missiles and rockets fly in a (more or less) straight line towards the target and detonate upon impact, but there are a few exceptions: 2/n
• top attack missiles (Javelin, Spike, Akeron) fly a lofted trajectory and strike the target from above. Their warheads detonate upon impact.
• overfly top attack missiles (BILL/BILL 2, TOW-2B, NLAW) fly a straight line slightly above the target and fire their EFP warheads 3/n
A look at anti-tank guided missiles, shoulder launched anti-tank rockets, anti-tank warheads, missile guidance systems, as well as armor countermeasures and active protection systems.
You will learn a lot in these threads 🧵:
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I will focus on NATO, Ukrainian & Swedish vs. russian anti-tank weapons. Like i.e:
All of the above (except four) use a jet-forming shaped charge warhead known as High Explosive Anti-Tank (HEAT).
The exceptions are the overfly top-attack BILL/BILL 2, TOW-2B & NLAW, which use a slug-forming shaped charge warhead known as Explosively Formed Penetrator (EFP).
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Germany ordering just 10x PzH 2000 is damaging the German defense industry. 10x are just enough to keep the production line open... but in times like ours an expansion of production is needed.
In Europe🇬🇧🇪🇸🇫🇷🇵🇹🇦🇹🇧🇬🇷🇴 need to replace their older self-propelled artillery, 1/4
while 🇮🇹🇱🇹🇳🇱🇭🇷🇬🇷 need more PzH 2000 and Ukraine needs masses of them. Germany's future army organization requires ~90 new PzH 2000. In total Europe has a need of ~500 armored self-propelled howitzers... with the current production line it would take around 30 years to build
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that number of PzH 2000.
As long as Germany itself doesn't commit to buy more PzH 2000 it is better for a nation to buy the South Korean K9 Thunder, of which ~60 are produced every year.
If Germany orders 100x PzH 2000 (= €1.57 bn) then other European nations will buy too, 3/4