Patricia Marins Profile picture
Apr 25 7 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
🧵1/5
The Thermals can't decide the war for allies.

The Leos 1/2 and Chally 2 are using an obsolete WBG-X thermal sight from first gen.
It puts these tanks behind the RU 1PN96MT-02 used in their T-62. Yes, about thermals, the Leo 1-2/ Chally 2 are ironically inferior to the T62. Image
2/5

The western tanks have better lenses, able to do a magnification of 4x - 12x, but the poor resolution of WBG-X just make the zoom/magnification unable to recognize anything far using Thermals.

The upgrades only came for 2a6PL and in general for the EU 2a7 ImageImage
3/5

The RU T90 and T72B3/M are using sosna-u, a 2nd gen thermal sight, with lenses similar to western sights, but much better thermal resolution.

RU can't manufacture the sosna-u massively yet. And about this, China can't help too much. What RU needs is more in NL and GER. Image
4/5
The old Polish and Ukraine warriors:

The Old, but upgraded polish Pt-91 (using KLW-1 Asteria) and the Ukrainian T-64bv (using TPN-1-TPV) are the only 3rd gen Thermals on battlefield.

These vehicles have less armor, but an advantage on Thermal sights, what help a lot. ImageImage
5/5

The RuAF have around 200-250 T90* and 400-600 T-72B3/B3M, both using Sosna-U. All other tanks are using inferior devices.

Sending an inferior force not only in techs, but also in lower number, the western forces are dangerously underestimating the russians.
Note 1:

The western forces were negligent about build/move facilities for ukrainian companies manufacture anti air missiles, T64*, Pt-91 barrels.
Now after 2y, most of ukr-PL tanks have worn-out barrels and the country air defenses are going to run out missiles.
For me a fail.
Note 2:

Ukraine have companies able to manufacture barrels, S-300/Buk-M1-2 missiles. How nobody organized this production months ago? While the media was criticizing the RU logistics/structure, just forgot about the Nato fails.

Now these two factors can cause a collapse.

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More from @pati_marins64

Apr 26
🧵1/5
Ukraine got around 400 artilleries able to range above 30km.
About 1/3 was lost due some reason.
I'm considering that Ukr forces are going to use 200 pieces on an offensive.
Would be necessaries 500.000-750.000 of shells for an operation of 50 days firing 10-15k/day. Image
2/5
10-15k would be the minimal to have a good chance dueling againt RU artilleries and saturating the trenches on a front of 150km.

Are these artilleries enough for a 150km extension front?
First, I'm just supposing a 150km front. But let see some situations to have some idea.
3/5
In comparison, NATO forces in and around West Germany in 1989, at the end of the Cold War, deployed at least 2,400 heavy artillery pieces to defend a border of approximately 2,200 km with East Germany and Czechoslovakia.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 26
Satellites continue to monitor the russian fortifications on the left bank of the Dnieper.

Considering these positions, the fight will be long and large amounts of ammo necessaries.
Kilometers of trenche defenses have been built during the last weeks On Zaporozhia and Kherson.

Probably these positions are protected by hundred of ATGMs.

For an ukrainian advance would be necessaries more artilleries, specially airbrush Frag shells.
Airburst *
Read 4 tweets
Apr 22
🧵1/4
Russia is using more aerial Bombs, but it's not a game changer.

The Russian catalog for these bombs have a variety of options from 250-1500kg, guided or not guided.
(RU also has some 3000 and 5000kg stored)

The range is something like 10-50km.

roe.ru/eng/catalog/ae… Image
2/4
Recently RU start to test some wing guide kits for these bombs. This kind of kit is usually used on smaller shells.
Last week a bomb accidentally fell down on Belgorod. I believe it was exactly that kind of kit malfunctioning.

From the size of crater I think it was a 250kg. ImageImage
3/4
It show Russian employing new weapons and improving tactics, visibly superior from last year. But these bombs were also used in Afghanistan and didn't avoid the Soviet defeat.
From other hand, it show a gradual expansion of RU air zone, sometimes few km from battlefield. Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 21
1/2
RU is replacing western CPUs by Elbrus and Baikal and some people still believe they are having issues with ball bearings.
It explain a lot about how people is attached to fake news. They just want some thing to believe and someone just feed that.

forbes.com/sites/davidaxe…
2/2
Shovels, Ball Bearings and a lot of ridiculous news doesn't help Ukraine at all.
The western media cover at this war is bullying our intelligence.

Ironically one of the most serious média channels of this war keep being the The Kiyv Independent.
Note 1:

So many comments on this thread and I want to feed.

“Until the end of the year, the shortage of bearings will be about 100,000 units, and this is provided that Russian manufacturers supply 95,000"

railway.supply/en/russian-rai…

Just time to expand:

bearing-news.com/bearing-indust…
Read 5 tweets
Apr 20
🧵1/3
Astros III MLRS is announced!

The system fire power improved considerably from Astros II. Now it can fire 4 cruiser Missiles per launcher with range of 1500km or a salvo of 12 150mm rockets able to reach 170km.

But for me the most interesting feature was the Astros AFC. Image
2/3

The ASTROS AFC is an autonomous launcher, able to do the a target acquisition, fire and move out fastly.
It has all the command features integrated and can fire 12 guided Ss-150G with range of 150km in just 15 seconds. Image
3/3
Another important unit keep being the meteorological station since rockets are extremely susceptible to weather, specially wind.

Astros III MLRS is a very competitive system with excellent range for unguided and guided rockets, and also long range cruiser Missiles and price. Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 19
🧵1/4
Is EU doing it's best?

Challenger 2, Leo 2, Pt-91 and dozens of T72 from Morroccos are in Ukr.

The Challenger 2 and Leo 2 weren't tested on a real war.

I mean in a balanced battlefield with combined weapons and without air superiority. A real ground to ground fight. Image
2/4

This stage of war will change the armored vehicle market.
Until this moment, the only tanks really tested on battlefield are the T class and with a heavy negative propaganda against their performance, specially the RU made.

Relevant: Only 🇩🇪 and 🇵🇹 are sending Leo 2a6.
2/3

The 2A6 are considerably superior in every aspect. Some EU countries have 2A6 stored, but decided to send the 2A4.

The 2A4 is an excellent tank, but still a 80's model.

They will face modern T72B3/M with upgrades from 2010-2022.

Why send the old ones instead newer models?
Read 9 tweets

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