Thread by @Fantasypaedia

Fantasypaedia contributor - @FPL_Architect is back with his weekly thread!

In this thread, he will be focusing on an important dilemma for FPL managers in this gameweek...

What to do with Arsenal assets?

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#FPL #FPLCommunity #GW33

Arsenal assets have been template picks all season, but with a perhaps slight drop off in performance recently, and tough fixtures ahead, is it worth considering selling some of them?

Before we begin, let’s take a look at some stats from Arsenal’s last 6 PL games.

🛡️Arsenal defence (last 6 PL games):

Goals conceded: 9 – (1.5 per game)
xG conceded: 9.35 – (1.56 per game)

📊Martinelli vs Odegaard vs Saka (last 6 PL games):

Goals: 4 vs 3 vs 3
Assists: 3 vs 1 vs 2
xG: 2.0 vs 1.6 vs 1.6
xGI: 4.2 vs 2.7 vs 2.9
FPL points: 47 vs 34 vs 36

Taking a look at these stats, the first noticeable thing is that Arsenal’s defence has dropped off recently. It might have been due to Saliba being injured, but the fact is that their defence just hasn’t been very good lately, and has struggled to keep clean sheets.

The midfielders on the other hand have performed better, especially Gabriel Martinelli, but they’ve all overperformed their xGI by quite a margin (Martinelli has 7 G+A from 4.2 xGI), and with tougher fixtures coming up that might be difficult to expect going forward.

Fixtures:

GW 33-38: mci, CHE, new, BHA, nfo, WOL

Arsenal’s upcoming fixture run is quite tricky. City away is obviously as tough as it gets and while Chelsea (H) is a game you’d expect Arsenal to win, that’s then immediately followed by a hard away game in Newcastle.

It’s also worth noting that Arsenal don’t have any DGWs coming up, while both Manchester clubs double in both GW 34 and 37, and Brighton have 3 DGWs coming up. This obviously reduces the appeal of Arsenal players even more, but it should be said that they end the season with…

…games against Nottingham Forest and Wolves. If the league isn’t decided by then and Arsenal still have something to play for we can expect them to go all out in those games and I personally would not want to go without Arsenal players for those games. Worth keeping in mind.

Potential transfer – defence:

Ruben Dias (6.0m) – MCI

Dias has started & played 90 minutes in 7 PL games in a row for City, and as the team has everything to play for going forward it’s reasonable to expect him to keep starting. City haven’t kept a CS in the PL since March…

…but they’re still the best defence in the league xGC wise and with a nice fixture run coming up (including 2 DGWs) we can expect clean sheets. Although Dias’ price is quite high, he looks like a great replacement for Gabriel/Zinchenko owners with a bit of money in the bank.

Potential transfers – attack:

Option 1: Marcus Rashford (7.1) – MUN

Those that sold Rashford in GW 31 should be looking to bring him back soon, he has 2 DGWs coming up and the fixture vs Spurs in GW 33 doesn’t scare. Saka → Rashford is a pretty straightforward move this week.

Option 2: Jack Grealish (7.2) – MCI

Another, slightly riskier, pick that could work as a replacement for Arsenal mids is Jack Grealish. He has been heavily favoured by Pep as starting LW, but with Foden back from injury, his xMins going forward probably decrease a bit.

Man City have 2 DGWs coming up and in general just very good fixtures, and as they’re playing for the title you’d expect Pep to play his ‘best XI’ in most games, and that team certainly includes Grealish. He could prove to be a nice way to get an extra piece of the City attack.

I think it’s fair to say that Arsenal assets are certainly not must-haves, they’re even possible sells. The main reason for this is the fixtures and the lack of DGWs. Players like Martinelli and Saka will continue to deliver, but there will likely be better picks in other teams.